Talk about Godwin's....Follow

Yeah, no. It's Godwins when he likens someone's message board argument about Nutella being better than Peanut Butter to the ****'s. It's ok when he's comparing someone slaughtering his neighbors and bombing his city to rubble to *****.

I'm surprised the Chechens aren't taking advantage of this opportunity to sabotage the Russians from the flank, unless they really have been pacified.

I kinda don't think they have.

Because THESE Russians are driving tanks across Chechnya (yet again) in order to get to THOSE Russians?

I dunno, I just always understood the average Chechnyan considered an opportunity to shoot at Russians to be a blessing from Allah.

Amusingly enough, it's Russians and Georgians killing each other over who gets to kill South Ossetians.
I loves me a good white on white war.

Well Osettia's mostly orthodox Jebus-lovers but there's a significant Muslim minority. When the Abkhazi's pile in (I don't think it will be long), that brings in a bunch of Sunn'a as well as orthodox Christians.

While resisting the urge to place my on my greying head, the fact that there's a huge oil pipeline (partly British owned) might be more than coinkydink. It conveniently bypasses Russia and allows us in the west to mitigate the otherwise prohibitive cost of oil & gas from Putin's chaps.

It seems odd that Medvedev & co are bombing outside of Ossettia, in a part of Georgia close to the pipeline. . .

Anywho, in this day & age, it doesn't matter who you or I root for. When it comes to important issues, it seems the final decision always sits with Simon Cowell.

the fact that there's a huge oil pipeline (partly British owned) might be more than coinkydink. It conveniently bypasses Russia and allows us in the west to mitigate the otherwise prohibitive cost of oil & gas from Putin's chaps.

Sure. It's Great Game 2. Has been for years.

So after a weekend of various news stories, opinions, etc this is what I've come up with:

- In 1991, during the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georia declares its independence.

- In 1992, the Georgian territory of South Ossetia attempts to become independent, wanting to join up with the Russian territory of North Ossetia as both regions are, unsuprisingly, ethnically related. Only about 30% of the people in the region are ethnic Georgians.

- Georgia fights the separatist movement in S. Ossetia, lots of people die and a de facto peace is realized in 1992 where S. Ossetia declares itself independant, no other nation actually acknowledges it and Russian forces act as peacekeepers, largely by Russian mandate.

- Russia provides many of the S. Ossetians with Russians passports and de facto citizenship. Anywhere from 10% to 50% of the S. Ossetians take Russia up on this.

- Georgia strikes up friendly relations with the West, including allowing the afore mentioned pipeline. The United States helps train Georgian military forces. Georgia becomes part of the Iraqi War Coalition. Georgia eventually applies for membership into NATO which angers Russia as Russia has long protested the eastern creep of NATO and Georgia is right on the border. The same thing is going on with NATO and Ukraine. Add to this the push to place missiles in old Eastern Europe ex-Bloc nations.

- Russia is disturbed by the West's reaction to Kosovo's independence and figures that if the West is going to support this sort of thing, they'd rather be on the gaining side than the losing side.

- Russia has some light saber-rattling with Georgia such as invasions of airspace. Georgia has some light confrontations with S. Ossetian separatists which are supposedly being given arms by Russia.

- Georgia uses the opening of the Olympics as a cover to launch a full scale assault on S. Ossetia's capitial and attempts to wrest S. Ossetia back firmly under Georgia control after 16 years.

- Russia responds by supposedly coming to the protection of people it says are Russian citizens. Russia, having a lot more warm bodies and weapons than Georgia, beats them back. Georgia offers a cease-fire but Russia doesn't accept it, claiming that Georgia needs to withdraw from S. Ossetia before it can be considered. Georgia claims that it is withdrawing, Russia claims that Georgian forces are merely regrouping.

None of this gives me any real clear idea of who to root for. Georgia is, by recent standards, "wrong" for refusing to recognize S. Ossetian independence. And for launching a military strike against the region after allowing its shakey status for nearly two decades. Russia is "wrong" for attempting to subvert Georgian sovereignty by making the S. Ossetians Russian citizens and supporting the S. Ossetian separatists (and those of Abkhazia). They've also used what's widely considered to be disproportional force in their response.

I suppose that since Georgia is pro-west and Russian is, well, Russia that I'm supposed to be rooting for Georgia. But it's easy to see where if the two nations' allegiances were reversed, we'd all be saying "Go Russia!". After all, we all had warm fuzzies for letting ethnic Kosovo be its own nation and only had luke-warm objections of Israel launching a full offensive against Lebanon (I know the cataylst was different, I'm speaking about the balance of force).

Damn complex wars. Someone makes this easy for me! Naturally, from a US point of view, we should all want Russia to face some humiliating defeat. That's part of this, after all, isn't it? Russia wants US/Europe to consider if they really want to be in a mutual defense treaty with a nation on Russia's border which is involved in this sort of thing against the Mother Bear.

Edited, Aug 11th 2008 6:56am by Jophiel

'sigh' Something else to add to the 'evil' side of my grocery list.

Jophiel's concise summary echoes my understanding, and the only definitive view I have is that any Military solution is pie in the sky.

The parallels with Northern Ireland are significant. A nation (Ireland/Georgia) successfully becomes independent from its historical occupier (UK/Russia), but a small region (S.Ossettia/Ulster) is packed with citizens loyal to the former master. OK, Ulster doesn't want the autonomy that S.O. appears to be seeking, but how much of this is the Ossetti's wish to be independent, or to be part of the old Motherland?

My suggestion is to follow tradition.

Two South Ossetians walk into a pub. "Top o' de mornin to ye Patrick" says one. . . . . .

According to GlobalSecurity.org, South Ossetia was quasi-autonomous under the old Soviet Union and the seeds for an independent region were planted long ago:If I'm reading that right, the Russian peacekeepers were there as a result of the 1992 cease-fire agreement and Georgia broke that agreement with its push into South Ossetia this past week. I'm not implying that there weren't previous issues or events but this seems to have been the blatant strike which knocked the whole thing down.

Right or wrong, it seems to have been a pretty stupid move on Georgia's part and they couldn't have actually expected that they'd reclaim total control of South Ossetia during the opening games.


Edited, Aug 11th 2008 10:11am by Jophiel

Mikheil Saakashvili gets himself a column in the WSJ.Why the hate for Lithuania, Mike?

Been browsing the russian media websites and it's all about liberating their brave cousins from Georgian oppression. Who'da thunk it?

Tried to find the Georgian perspective but they don't have many decent English language sites and I don't speak paperclip.

Looks clear that Momma Bear is swiping the naughty cub hard enough to draw blood.

On the plus side, Katie Melua is safe in England

Mikey's on BBC news 12 hrs a day. At this rate he'll be our new continuity announcer and Kids Show Host.

Oddly, he still seems to have quite a partisan perspective.

ETA

Wkipedia tells me he did his LLM at Columbia, and Doctor of Law at GW Law. lern2teachLaw, n00bs!

Edited, Aug 11th 2008 7:18pm by Nobby