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Nuclear holocost an ineviability?Follow

#27 Apr 14 2006 at 10:46 AM Rating: Good
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In practice, every society has destroyed itself one way or another, either by not progressing enough allowing it to be run over, or by acts of hostility. The actions by society (a collection of humans) are what is being discussed, not wether it's possible for a society to have action.

Actually, most "societies" are destroyed by a single root cause: apathy.

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however.. if you think about it... The abilty to destroy yourself.. is that NOT a state of Progress.. even in evolutionary terms?

No. An ability is not a state of anything. Having an ability may be indicative of a stage, gaining an ability may be a milestone in the evolution of a thing, but having an ability is merely an attribute.

Edited, Fri Apr 14 11:48:26 2006 by MoebiusLord
#28 Apr 14 2006 at 11:34 AM Rating: Good
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Kelvy wrote:
I am now wondering if it is all but assured that we will see a nuclear holocost in our lifetimes. We cannot stop countries from developing. The power to destroy yourself is a natural step in the progress of a society(no?). Though we may be able to stall it... we will not stop it.


Did you miss the Cold War?

Don't throw the word "holocaust" around lightly. There are exactly two nations that possess enough nuclear firepower to bring about a catastrophic end-of-days scenario, and demonstrably neither has the will to do so. You can't win the game if everybody dies.



Cheer up, Kelvy. We didn't lose the planet to nuclear war at any point in the last fifty years, and we're not going to lose it now.



edit: quote, not qoute

Edited, Fri Apr 14 12:34:56 2006 by Wingchild
#29 Apr 14 2006 at 11:42 AM Rating: Good
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I picture a cartoon.. with all of the nations standing around with guns to each others heads...

trust through fear and paranoia.


I suppose holocAUst may be extreme.. I was actually just thinking another Hiroshima type thing.. only it seems more likely than ever that is would happen on own soil.

Didn't the Cold War come extremely close to getting hot real fast during the Cuban missle thing? Seems like we got out of that one by the skin of our teeth.

Seems like the way things are going now... be must rely on getting lucky everytime.. while the "enemy" needs to get lucky only once.

I would be very surprised if within the next decade we don't see some total catastrophe.

guess I'm a goth at heart I wouldn't be so worried if I didn't work a stones throw from DC.

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#30 Apr 14 2006 at 11:55 AM Rating: Good
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Didn't the Cold War come extremely close to getting hot real fast during the Cuban missle thing? Seems like we got out of that one by the skin of our teeth.

That's what happens when you rely on brinksmanship as a tool of international diplomacy, something both the US and Russia were fond of (being superpowers). The idea is to threaten a complete disaster if you don't get your own way in order to try and secure a more advantageous political position.

It's stupid, but if the other guy is doing it, you have to do it too -- else you have no way to leave the bargaining table, you'll just bend over and take it every time they threaten you (sorta like media outlets with Mohammed imagery).
#31 Apr 14 2006 at 12:14 PM Rating: Good
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That's what happens when you rely on brinksmanship as a tool of international diplomacy


wehn you have two unbending and opposing viewpoints, waht other option is there? Such as with Iran at the moment... if it isn't the brink of nuclear disaster than it's the brink of economic disaster... I can't really think of another way to deal with someone that simply will not listen other than just slapping the **** out of them.

Edited, Fri Apr 14 13:19:37 2006 by Kelvyquayo
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#32 Apr 14 2006 at 12:27 PM Rating: Decent
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: GLOBAL THERMAL NUCLEAR WAR
#33 Apr 14 2006 at 12:30 PM Rating: Good
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Unfortunately that's not a question I'm at all qualified to answer. I went to school for technical things, not for polysci; I don't know what you're supposed to do when an opposing state rejects diplomatic efforts to achieve an agreeable solution.

The idea behind brinkmanship is one that permeates political thought in this country. When I was growing up, I thought politics was about both sides coming to the table to present what they wanted, then finding a mutually agreeable compromise position.

Yet, what I see in DC is nothing like this. If you want to go far in the District you have to come to the table not with a request, but with a demand -- and you never demand what you actually want. You demand something far above and beyond your actual requirements, something so huge as to be ludicrous. The idea is that everybody has to give up something during the compromise process, so if we just go overboard early on we'll wind up "compromising" back down to where we wanted to be in the first place. Both major parties pull this stunt on a regular basis in our country.

I think of brinkmanship as being the same thing applied on an international scale - the same style of "compromise" carried out as part of foreign relations. We make demands on other countries with the expectation of compromising down to whatever position we want. Sometimes we threaten violence to get our way; sometimes we carry out violence in order to make sure our threat retains its credibility.


Iran is not in a good position, yet they refuse to back down or use any of the tools of diplomacy. In fact, as time goes on, Ahmahdinejad's rhetoric gets weirder and weirder. Maybe he's taking the example of North Korea close to heart; Kim Jong Il is a nutcase, yet we've done nothing to him despite his posturing over the past half a decade.

I don't know what we're supposed to try next with Iran.
#34 Apr 14 2006 at 12:54 PM Rating: Good
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Iran is not in a good position, yet they refuse to back down or use any of the tools of diplomacy. In fact, as time goes on, Ahmahdinejad's rhetoric gets weirder and weirder


That is becasue he is listening to Osama and his buddies daily since they are hiding in Tehran.
#35 Apr 14 2006 at 1:06 PM Rating: Good
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When I was a wee child, along with seeing dead people I evidently told my mother at around age six that I wouldn't be around to see the end of the world, but my children would be. She blames it on reading the Bible while still unable to ride a bike.
#37 Apr 14 2006 at 2:09 PM Rating: Decent
Alas, this seeming pendatic matter cuts right at the practicality, or however you want to call it, of the matter.

It's pure religious dogma to maintain a doctrine that considers it is inevitable for society to destroy itself. Firstly, most do not understand what society is nor why society exists. Claiming society destroys itself illuminates that misunderstanding. That statement inlcudes the falsity that there is a conscious soul-possessing acting thing called society, which there is not, and even worse includes something which is the antithesis of society as a characteristic of its essence, which is a horrible falsity, with extremely dangerous consequences.

Society only exists by acts of voluntary cooperation (consensual sex and trade). Barbarism only exists by acts of violent involuntary coercion (rape, theft, and murder).

Mob action does not absolve individual responsibility. Of course the pilots of the Enola Gay are not the only ones responsible; there were other Americans and other Japanese responsible. Every person within the boundaries of the U.S. was not responsible for that act. It is likewise irresponsible and incorrect to label the entirety of the residents of those Japanese cities bombed as innocents. Most likely certainly were to a great extent.

But seriously, do not spout such nonsense as "every society has destroyed itself one way or another". First if, that was true, you wouldn't exist, and if you did exist, you would be the sole person existing, which is not the case. Society(ies) has never been completely destroyed. Was the fall of the Berlin Wall and Soviet Russia the fall of a society or was it the fall of the suppression of society? Society and freedom was relatively liberated.

Every action has an actor or actors, specific circumscribable individuals. This removes all veils of hoped for guilt clouding of murderous pillaging thieves who hope to hide and find justification or absolvement in mob defintions of nation, village, team, or society.

"The actions by society (a collection of humans) are what is being discussed, not wether it's possible for a society to have action" is just as foolish statement as its clear that if society can't have action then society can't act. This is precisely a big part of the reason I originally commented. Now instead of arguing whether some undefined uncircumscrible thing is inevitable, you must now focus on the free will of actually existing actually acting individuals. Only actually existing actually acting individuals who rape, murder, and pillage destroy society. That is it, in it's entirety. Whether the a-social destruction involves sticks and stones or nuclear warheads changes nothing of the classification of society versus the classification of barbary. Why consider the individual a life-form rather than consider the parts that make up a human life-forms? Because those parts which make up a human life-form do not have free will, do not make decisions, do not have consciousness, etc.

Is Iran a free society? Is Iran free? Is Iran a society? Or is what is referred to as Iran more like a mafioso dictatorship which rules by violent force, supresses the free will of women, the free choice to exercise any religion of ones own choosing? Think you can go to Iran and set up a business selling lemonade, or selling christian bibles without being bothered by individuals residing there? The rulers of Iran are barbarian enemies. These barbarian enemies seem intent upon aquiring nuclear weapons with which to threaten freedom and society.

Just like the leftist apologists and advocates of the idea of socialism, communism, or the practicality of the U.S.S.R. were either conscious barbarians themselves or misguides advocates of violence (how else do you *take* from each in order to give to each?), and in the end wrong. The voluntary members of society win out in the end. Voluntary cooperation of individuals survives as it absolutely necessary to increasing one's own welfare, members of society adapt and meet those dictators and ruthless barbarians who do not seek voluntary mutual exchange of goods, services, and ideas on voluntarily accepted terms. Society exists for pure economic reasons, increased material welfare and propagation of the species. Death and destruction have been overcome and will continue to be overcome with as much certainty as future procreation will occur. And yes, the United States of America has and will continue to face down the barbarian hordes. In a mere few centuries and at no time in previous history have individuals come together in so strong a committment to ensuring the existence of society, by allowing free trade and abhoring theft, rape, and murder, and showing no tolerance for those wielding the power being absolved of guilt for their actions.

Though it is true, a big portion of the barbarian enemy lies now within the borders of the U.S. It's advocates are the forces of violence who seek power to redstribute through government (that would be both major political parties). But the answer to the OP is simple: only individuals who are opposed to the very existence of society, of peaceful voluntary trade and cooperation, can threaten society. Hopefully, my rampling has sharpened the lines delineating the enemies of society.

Only those who care not about their own existence and the existence of others need be met and faced. When the apoligists for the old U.S.S.R. and current Iraq/Iran situation voluntarily move and subject themselves to the treatment they would recieve in those so-called "societies", perhaps they will wisen up. They are poor, they are violent, they are poor because they are violent, and they are bloodthristy to rape and pillage the treasure and freedom of the West to feed off their own demise from their vampiric blooletting of individuals residing in their so-called Nations.

There's a reason why the West is rich and technologically advanced. It's because barbaric violence cannot compete on an evolutionary scale with freedom and voluntarily association. This could very well be one of the last stands of backwater barbarians who seek not only to resist freedom but seek to further subjugate by threatening or conducting violence toward others in the name of nation or any other ideology. It's obious who is weak and who will lose. Does the West fear the Mosque in it's own suburbs? Hell no. Does the Middle East fear if not the Church the Synagogue in it's neighborhoods? Hell yes.

In less than 300 years of many millenium we are on the cusp of significant prolonged world-wide peace. It seems the greatest impediment to the final leg of this great state of relatively free world-wide society is coming from within the West; from ideological casualties of the cold war against violent socialism, the very thing which seems to pop up in the third world and ridden by violent bloodthirsty drug lorgs and mafioso nation bosses (see Africa and South America). Is it inevitable that these leftists will continue to fail to become conscious of the violence they preach and seek?

No, nothing is inevitable, and if the last 300 years are looked at separately from the times preceeded them there is much to be optimistic and hopefully for. Being faced with a nuclear weapon is not all that different than being faced with the king's guilotine or the wooly man-eating mammoth or the sun suddenly ceasing to burn. The almost familial band of freedom and society coalesces to an unavoidable extent like opposite polarities of a magnet atrract. Even the forces of tyranny need their semi-voluntary minions in order to carry out there plans. Society will exist and flourish. It's as much an economic law as Newton's laws of physics. The veil of ignorance will not resist the shining light of liberty for much longer.

--Damn that was long ^^. Hope I didn't mix RL with ToAU too much. :P
#38 Apr 14 2006 at 2:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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Alas, this seeming pendatic matter cuts right at the practicality, or however you want to call it, of the matter.
That is the worst sentence I've read all week.
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#39 Apr 14 2006 at 2:49 PM Rating: Decent
Is MonxDoT Gbaji's sock?
#40 Apr 14 2006 at 4:36 PM Rating: Good
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Nah. I would have tossed a couple "heh" and "folks" into that thing...
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#41 Apr 14 2006 at 6:59 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Nah. I would have tossed a couple of bajillion "heh" and "folks" into that thing...
Good point.
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#42 Apr 14 2006 at 9:18 PM Rating: Decent
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/end.php

Edited, Fri Apr 14 22:19:50 2006 by Jehudas
#43 Apr 14 2006 at 10:06 PM Rating: Default
MonxDoT wrote:

There's a reason why the West is rich and technologically advanced. It's because barbaric violence cannot compete on an evolutionary scale with freedom and voluntarily association. This could very well be one of the last stands of backwater barbarians who seek not only to resist freedom but seek to further subjugate by threatening or conducting violence toward others in the name of nation or any other ideology. It's obious who is weak and who will lose. Does the West fear the Mosque in it's own suburbs? Hell no. Does the Middle East fear if not the Church the Synagogue in it's neighborhoods? Hell yes.




/nod

Seamy
#44 Apr 14 2006 at 10:21 PM Rating: Good
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There's a reason why the West is rich and technologically advanced. It's because barbaric violence cannot compete on an evolutionary scale with freedom and voluntarily association.


No, really, it was mainly geography and having better technology than the people you want to arbitrarily kill to further your own wealth. The technology itself is largely happenstance and often times a function of geography.

Sorry. I know it's charming to assume that the culure you belong to is sucessfull because of devine right or some from of anglo/urocentirc superiority, but it's really not the case.

Oh well. At least you won the genetic lottery and weren't born in Bangladesh, so there's that.


No, nothing is inevitable, and if the last 300 years are looked at separately from the times preceeded them there is much to be optimistic and hopefully for.


Absolutely. I mean look how well that Pax Romana thing worked out.


Being faced with a nuclear weapon is not all that different than being faced with the king's guilotine or the wooly man-eating mammoth or the sun suddenly ceasing to burn. The almost familial band of freedom and society coalesces to an unavoidable extent like opposite polarities of a magnet atrract.


Yeah, I mean look how well that guillotine thing worked out. The people rose up and installed Robespierre who imdieately proceeded to guillotine more people than the King ever had and lead to a prolonged period of bloodshed and strife. Ahh, freedom was on the march even back then.



Even the forces of tyranny need their semi-voluntary minions in order to carry out there plans. Society will exist and flourish.


Thank goodness they're SO HARD to find, eh? I mean if you could just get a large number of people together and send them to random places to kill brown people for no particular reason, we'd be in real trouble. If there was a large segment of the population willing to accept any pretext no matter how contrived for the tyrannical slaughter of people by droping fir from the sky on them, we'd be in real trouble.

Oh wait.


It's as much an economic law as Newton's laws of physics. The veil of ignorance will not resist the shining light of liberty for much longer.


I'll keep that in mind in 25 years when the largest economy on earth is Socialist.
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#45 Apr 15 2006 at 12:34 AM Rating: Good
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John Titor said mad cow disease would kill us all... not nuclear holocaust. Just watch out for 2015 WWIII is gonna suck.

/sarcasm off

What I am about to post about is my view from the government aspect, not terrorist. Terrorism is something that we cannot, as ordinary citizens who do not have access to classified information, be extremely concerned about, or else you will spend your whole life worrying.

I am personally not too worried about nuclear holocaust. Iran is right now the biggest threat from world governments, in my mind at least.For the most part Iran's story is that it just wants nuclear technology for their power consumption needs (whether you believe that or not is up to you.) Of course their is also the theory that Iran wants to be taken more seriously around the world and that by having bombs and being part of the "nuclear club" they would get this recognition and respect (again whatever you want to believe.)

Nuclear holocaust is not likely because in the end it will kill everyone. Even if not everyone dies immediately, the population will more than likely be so spread out and mutated that they cannot produce enough viable offspring in order to perpetuate the species. My thought along this line is why would a country launch nuclear weapons against another country that has, or is protected by (through treaties), nuclear weapons. Their country would be destroyed as well, and their would be no earthly gain toward this(e.g. economical, labor, technological.)

In the end I extremely doubt that nuclear holocaust will ever happen through governments at war (again i am not at all talking about terrorism.) The days of the end of WWII are no longer, USA is no longer the only power with nukes, therefore they are no longer weapons of action, they are weapons of deterance.

#46 Apr 15 2006 at 12:41 AM Rating: Decent
Roving sex-starved radioactive mutants sounds like my kind of holocaust.

The real question here is why is Kelvy dreaming? Have you denounced the icky sticky?
#47 Apr 15 2006 at 1:00 AM Rating: Good
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The days of the end of WWII are no longer, USA is no longer the only power with nukes, therefore they are no longer weapons of action, they are weapons of deterance.


Only for half a century or so, though.

The reality is that it's just far too easy in an absolute long term sense to manufacture or steal a nuclear device for one not be used somewhere in the world, probably in my lifetime.

That being said, given the current trend in nuclear weapons design I'd say it's 60/40 that the US is the one who does.

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#48 Apr 15 2006 at 1:10 AM Rating: Excellent
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Aww, you think we would be more likely to nuke something than pakistan?

I don't think any of the middle eastern countries are stupid enough to nuke israel given the likelyhood of israel having at least a few tucked away somewhere. North Korea, eh, i think they enjoy playing the "OMGzorz we might finish nukses!" card to actually use one

But for my money, I say France nukes a greenpeace ship. It's the only armed conflict they seem to be winning these days.
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#49 Apr 15 2006 at 1:17 AM Rating: Good
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Well a lot depends on politics obviously, but I wouldn't be shocked to see us use a small tactical device somewhere in the next 25 years or so. Small though. Probably less than half a kt.

Hopefully not, but there seems to be a real lot of intrest in micro nukes again.
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#50 Apr 15 2006 at 1:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, but it will be ok because we'll declare Iran a nuclear test site ahead of time, so it will be all legit. That or we'll get Israel to launch it for us.

That micronuke reseach does frighten me, because if nothing else if you make them that much smaller you don't need nearly as much materials to build one. Our top end hydrogen nukes use what, maybe 10% of their theoretical maximum energy yield? Scary.
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#51 Apr 15 2006 at 1:55 AM Rating: Good
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Kelvyquayo wrote:

guess I'm a goth at heart I wouldn't be so worried if I didn't work a stones throw from DC.


My daughters say it is ok to if one lets out their interGoth at times. Living 3 blocks from the D.C line during the cold war I thought I would never live pass the age of 42. So far I've prayed the last 5 years are not extra time just for good behavior.

As for the nightmares, I seen you have met the monster in the closet from my childhood. I heard he was back and has been very active the last 5 years. He's updated the nightmares I had as a kid with fancy CGI.
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