Heh. Just took a lunch break myself.
Debalic wrote:
Aye, that's true. I don't know what will happen. I'm just wondering what crystal ball you're looking into, that shows the extremist clerics and their radical groups suddenly turning over and making peace when this government comes into power.
Sure. It'll get worse before it gets better. That's for sure. However, it's not the small number of extremist clerics and their followers that are the threat *after* a new government is in place. They are a threat *before* that happens. The reason they've been stepping up attacks is because each faction fears that the other(s) will have the power when the dust settles, so they figure if they can stop the process, they can change the battlefield into one they know how to fight.
You've got to understand the structure of these factions. There are large groups of people who are part of one group or another (most broadly, Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd). The bulk of those groups are regular people who just want to get on with their lives. However, there is a very real fear from them that if one of the other factions gains complete power, that they as a group will be persecuted under the new regime.
This is where the extremists come in. They feed this fear. They pre-empt this fear by staging attacks designed to make both their own people and the other factions worry about the future. They know that if they can polarise the bulk of these factions into open warfare, that any "shared power" solution will fail. That's their strategy. That's what the attacks are about. Why you'll see crowds cheering is simply the result of fear tactics at work. This is not new. Crowds cheered in Germany in the 30s, not because things were great, but because the finger was pointed at someone else. Leaders cheered when Saddam systematically eliminated his opponents when he took power, not because they loved Saddam, but because they were terrified that if they didn't, that they'd be put on "the list" of people to be eliminated.
This is how fear tactics works. It's very easy to get otherwise moderate people to put on the appearance of radicalism. No one wants to look like they are on the other side when bombs and guns are going off. It's just that simple.
Quote:
What about when they realize their new regime is a hand-picked US puppet government? Oops, sorry, didn't mean to jump the gun again. Who knows who will have the real power this summer?
You're right. We don't know. However, overwhelmingly, the bulk of the population in Iraq is much more fearful of one of the other factions in Iraq gaining full power then they are of the US government. Yes. Despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, that's the truth. They are looking to the US to be the impartial party. Surprised by that? Don't be. The fear of the "US occupation" is largely one brought up by US citizens afraid of the power being exerted by their own government (and a general distaste for such things, which is healthy actually). However, in this case, as long as the government isn't polarized along faction lines, the bulk of the population will be very happy with it.
Long term, we need to avoid too much interference with this government. But in the short term, it really isn't that much of a problem. Remember, you're dealing with a nation of people who've lived under a pretty brutal power for the last 30ish years. The concept of a "puppet government", while it plays well on American TV, is way down on the list of concerns to the Iraqi's in general. What does that mean? Trade with the US? Is that a bad thing? The rebuilding of their infrastructure and industry? Is that a bad thing?
All that matters is that after the new government is in place, the bulk of the populace does not fear that their government will send the secret police around through their neighborhood and take them away for "questioning" in the middle of the night. Honestly! Any government that can promise that (and rebuilding) will be accepted by the people. Once that happens, the dynamic changes. Those clerics with their radical followers begin to be seen as the cause of problems, not the path to "protection for our faction". The bulk of the population, instead of looking at them as potential saviors, will see them as agitators who are just getting people killed. That's what will happen in July when the new government takes power.
Does that mean that the violence will stop? Not at all. But it will signal a turning point for Iraq. The people will view the violence differently, and that's a huge change. As long as the government can be reasonably effective at using the legal system to find and prosecute those radicals, they will retain popular support of the people. In time, you'll see the "people" of each faction literally turning in their own extremists (that'll take awhile though).
Sure. That's me looking through my crystal ball. I may be wrong. But that's my prediction. I'm willing to let the process continue and see what happens. At this point, we kinda don't have a choice anyway, so what's the point in whining about it?
Edited, Tue Apr 6 18:15:50 2004 by gbaji
