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Scroll Supply {Too Weak}Follow

#27 Sep 27 2011 at 11:34 AM Rating: Excellent
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I think we need to wait a few weeks before we jump the gun. As others have said, this happens every update. Thunder V went from 8M to 2M overnight on Asura, and is now only 1M. Remember when cruor armor first came out? Remember almost every single piece of abyssea gear that has come out? It all started out at hundreds or millions, and now its almost all less than 20k. The supply and price will settle, you just have to be patient.

Everyone should know by now the general rule of thumb for these updates: Don't buy anything for at least a month if you don't want to overpay by millions. If you really really really can't wait, then do the event or shell out the 1M, which really isn't that much anyways. You could probably farm the money in less time than it takes to repeat the event over and over again.



Edited, Sep 27th 2011 1:40pm by RizzoRazzle
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#28 Sep 27 2011 at 12:10 PM Rating: Excellent
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RizzoRazzle wrote:
I think we need to wait a few weeks before we jump the gun. As others have said, this happens every update. Thunder V went from 8M to 2M overnight on Asura, and is now only 1M. Remember when cruor armor first came out? Remember almost every single piece of abyssea gear that has come out? It all started out at hundreds or millions, and now its almost all less than 20k. The supply and price will settle, you just have to be patient.

Everyone should know by now the general rule of thumb for these updates: Don't buy anything for at least a month if you don't want to overpay by millions. If you really really really can't wait, then do the event or shell out the 1M, which really isn't that much anyways. You could probably farm the money in less time than it takes to repeat the event over and over again.

Oh, I'm sure it's going to come down in price over time. The sharpest drop comes early, and I think we've already seen that sharp drop. But after that, it's going to take a long, long time for these prices to come down. And I'll tell you why I'm convinced that's the case.

Cruor armor came down in price much faster because people could farm cruor while doing other activities. The market didn't rely on players going into Abyssea with the goal of farming cruor, and farming cruor alone. Players were accumulating cruor while leveling, fighting NMs, and doing quests.

Another example of this is Stone V through Blizz V and Stoneja through Firaja. Even if these scrolls were never sold by an NPC, the AH would have been supplied with these scrolls just from players doing various activities in Abyssea. Whether you are in Abyssea getting exp or farming NMs, you are likely to see gold chests with these scrolls in them. You don't have to go into Abyssea with the sole purpose of farming gold chests. You come across them while doing other activities.

I'm not convinced that the same thing will happen with these new scrolls since they come from HKCNMs, WoE and Voidwatch. No one does HKCNMs unless the express purpose is to get those drops. Once people get the scrolls that they want, the popularity of WoE and Voidwatch is going to die down once again. As the supply of these scrolls increases, and the prices come down, the motivation for players to go out and do these activities to farm scrolls will also decrease.
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#29 Sep 27 2011 at 1:38 PM Rating: Good
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Even if the new spells end up being as "cheap" as 500k, that's still 500k on top of other millions of gil to level up that job. Once Abyssea becomes irrelevant content, not that I think it will do so eventually but I think scroll prices from Abyssea is going to go up. As soon as ISNMs became a lot less common, I haven't done one in over a year since I came back some scrolls that drop from those ISNMs have gone up quite the bit. Protect IV going for 10 times more than Protect V? I don't even. So even if the new scroll prices goes down, they will go up again if history repeats. Personally I'm waiting for Temper to go to 5k and it seems like it's doing a great job so far.
#30 Sep 27 2011 at 1:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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Solonuke wrote:
So even if the new scroll prices goes down, they will go up again if history repeats.

Utsusemi: Ni is a good example of this.
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#31 Sep 27 2011 at 2:44 PM Rating: Good
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svlyons wrote:

Oh, I'm sure it's going to come down in price over time. The sharpest drop comes early, and I think we've already seen that sharp drop. But after that, it's going to take a long, long time for these prices to come down. And I'll tell you why I'm convinced that's the case.

Cruor armor came down in price much faster because people could farm cruor while doing other activities. The market didn't rely on players going into Abyssea with the goal of farming cruor, and farming cruor alone. Players were accumulating cruor while leveling, fighting NMs, and doing quests.

Another example of this is Stone V through Blizz V and Stoneja through Firaja. Even if these scrolls were never sold by an NPC, the AH would have been supplied with these scrolls just from players doing various activities in Abyssea. Whether you are in Abyssea getting exp or farming NMs, you are likely to see gold chests with these scrolls in them. You don't have to go into Abyssea with the sole purpose of farming gold chests. You come across them while doing other activities.

I'm not convinced that the same thing will happen with these new scrolls since they come from HKCNMs, WoE and Voidwatch. No one does HKCNMs unless the express purpose is to get those drops. Once people get the scrolls that they want, the popularity of WoE and Voidwatch is going to die down once again. As the supply of these scrolls increases, and the prices come down, the motivation for players to go out and do these activities to farm scrolls will also decrease.


People will be doing Voidwatch for a long, long time because of the Heavy Metal Plates, so there will still be a supply. HKCNM's I can see having a limited shelf life. WoE is a toss-up as there are a bunch of people going for coins but also a bunch of people going for scrolls.
#32 Sep 27 2011 at 7:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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As long as these can't be reliably soloed, or even up to trioed, consistently and without grueling difficulty, the prices aren't likely to drop much more. Part of why people are running WoE now is for themselves. The scrolls that do hit the AH are either duplicates or from the few people who might never touch a given job and chance upon one of their scrolls. Maybe some of the early ones were people with dollar signs in their eyes, but 10m Comet scrolls aren't happening now and those looking for gil are probably realizing more consistent methods lie elsewhere.

WoE is going to dry up eventually, and the crappy coin rates from chests for people maybe working on weapons isn't helping there, either. MMOs just can't risk being grueling grinds these days, whether some favor that or not.
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#33 Sep 28 2011 at 10:15 AM Rating: Excellent
I'm going to have to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or whatever number we are on this. I waited for my tier V nukes to see if the AH prices would drop and when they didn't, went ahead and bought them off the NPC. Of course they have dropped now, months later, but I would prefer not to be 95 for 6 months before the prices come down on AH.

Can I go do the HKCNMs with my LS? Sure, but if Utsusemi: Ni is any indicator, I will run out of seals before I get all of my scrolls. Not to mention, there are 2 main blm in the LS (by main I mean they go to every event on blm for procs, staggers, crowd control, w/e). I guarantee if we go out there and the scrolls drop on someone else orb, they will take the scrolls for their blm which is level to 90-95 as well. Is this greed? Not necessarily, they have the job and need the scrolls as well. Will they get as much use out of them as I will? Nope, because they have other jobs they play more often for various needs and reasons.

I have never done WoE, so I am going to have to get familiar with it. I am ok with that and will do what needs to be done. But the fact that I have to do these events repeatedly for incredibly low drop rates for 4 jobs is kind of annoying.

I'm not asking to have my scrolls handed to me. But I would definitely prefer to have some type of quest/story line involved, then events that I am unfamiliar with and have to compete against every other blm for.
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#34 Sep 29 2011 at 5:47 AM Rating: Good
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I'm going to have to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or whatever number we are on this.
-- Thank You.

I appreciate the support, I have a hard time understanding contrary views on this one, as it is a main mage (BLM in my case) only concern. Unlike Utsusemi:Ni or even /Refresh which basically had their demand skyrocket because every melee needed Ni & all mages needed /refresh. (ironically all you had to do to get your own, or farm, was level BLM to 40 for U/O)( & go get Stonega II on higher job lol.)

There are other constraints on market just due to HKC supply, most levelling being much faster & with larger group, less seals are obtained by each individual. (& the 3 > 1 trade ratio on seals narrows it also)

Quote:
But the fact that I have to do these events repeatedly for incredibly low drop rates for 4 jobs is kind of annoying.

LOL, yea to me some of the Magian Trials are "Annoying" due to mobs chosen for jobs (like un-drainable mobs for DRK etc......) but at least the result is guaranteed.

Hopefully SE will see the logic in this & loosen up supply a bit, I would be embarassed as a game designer if my update included something like this (central skill or natural progression of main job)
that could remain un-attainable by most for a LONG time.

I would almost go so far as to suggest two types of scrolls, one Rare that could be highly profitable, & another Rare/Ex that could only be used & NOT sold. (similar to what was done with KC-Octave PCC-PCA etc.)

Edited, Sep 29th 2011 4:50am by Terrifyingspeed
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#35 Sep 29 2011 at 6:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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- I'm prolly shutting down the account tomorrow over this. I just don't have the patience to not enjoy my fun mage jobs for 6 months


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0/30+ at anything new, friend 1/30-40. That 1 was an Ice Carol II ><.

Quote:
I've been running it on both characters - WHM curebombs a bit and then I play the SMN - level and a half's worth of exp on both of them and still nada. Going to have coins to start making WoE weapons at this rate though

Edited, Sep 29th 2011 5:11am by Terrifyingspeed

random quotes from blm forum.....



Edited, Sep 29th 2011 5:15am by Terrifyingspeed
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#36 Oct 01 2011 at 11:05 AM Rating: Good
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All scrolls need to be NPC purchasable or dropped from normal, found in the world mobs. Period.
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#37 Oct 01 2011 at 4:25 PM Rating: Good
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All scrolls need to be NPC purchasable or dropped from normal, found in the world mobs. Period.


Agreed, I was trying to be a little conservative, with my suggestions, to not be too Trollworthy...
but after some time has pessed, I'm leaning more towards your view.

Even the examples others have given really hold no water, being as the other high priced ones mentioned, Uts: Ni for instance or the IIIga & tierIV are only high because people are too lazy to go get 'em apparently.

A little research & patience and ANYONE can go farm them reliably & consistently.

Oh for the good olde days of the lamented Saphire Quadav drop rate...prices on my server appear to be going UP not Down (on Comet, thunder V etc) Temper & the others seem a little more reasonable.
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#38 Oct 01 2011 at 9:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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Wonder Gem Pawkeshup wrote:
All scrolls need to be NPC purchasable or dropped from normal, found in the world mobs. Period.

I could live with Comet being HKCNM/WoE/Void Watch. Perhaps even Breakga. But the precedent was set for Tier Vs and -ja spells being sold by an NPC. So at the very least, Thunder V and Blizzaja (and in the future, Thundaja) should be sold from NPCs.
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#39 Oct 03 2011 at 9:29 AM Rating: Good
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Even the examples others have given really hold no water, being as the other high priced ones mentioned, Uts: Ni for instance or the IIIga & tierIV are only high because people are too lazy to go get 'em apparently.

Utsu:Ni can't be quested or farmed. It's expensive because it's limited in supply. Just like the new spells, you can't simply go buy it from NPC or quest it, or get it from any mob found on the world map.
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#40 Oct 03 2011 at 10:06 AM Rating: Good
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Pergatory wrote:
Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Even the examples others have given really hold no water, being as the other high priced ones mentioned, Uts: Ni for instance or the IIIga & tierIV are only high because people are too lazy to go get 'em apparently.

Utsu:Ni can't be quested or farmed. It's expensive because it's limited in supply. Just like the new spells, you can't simply go buy it from NPC or quest it, or get it from any mob found on the world map.

Perhaps he has Ni confused with Ichi?
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#41 Oct 04 2011 at 7:13 AM Rating: Default
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Utsu:Ni can't be quested or farmed


Yes... I mis-spoke, literally, about Ni. (because I consider repeat runs of BCNM "farming") But the Ni comparison falls flat there as most know by now that there are several fail safe strategies to get it. I have "Farmed" under observation (BCNM) for years. In my somewhat proveable opinion, Ni cant be compared because ALL melee /NIN need it (which started with lvl cap increase)

They would be compareable if lvl cap was raised to 180-190 I guess. In other words, the Ni economy is skewed by DEMAND not supply. Like I said.

Quote:
Unlike Utsusemi:Ni or even /Refresh which basically had their demand skyrocket because every melee needed Ni & all mages needed /refresh.


When Ni bacame a "Necessity"... there was a huge supply of Beastman seals in game & anyone could level a job that could guarantee wins in several BCNM that drop it ( I never heard or saw anyone go 10-20- or 30 runs without getting it, like we're seeing now).

Maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones who get these scrolls before I run out of crests... but I would still like to see supply loosened. Being a natural progression of a job, versus say a K-club DRK set-up. If they wouldve added to KSNM at least I would now a lot of folks who had hundreds or thousands of the seals.

The most crests I know of anyone having is 3-400..... so 10-15 or so runs on a BC that people are reporting 0/30 ?

Can I live without 'em ? sure... will I proceed to try to get either off AH or doing fights ? yup....
do I think its fair for one job to have potentially some of its most potent tools be very hard/expensive to get ? nope.

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#42 Oct 04 2011 at 9:00 AM Rating: Good
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No, Utsusemi:Ni is a direct comparison. It doesn't get any more direct, in fact it's an even more extreme example of what's happening right now.

Just like the new spells, it's a spell which you cannot buy from an NPC or obtain from any mob on the world map. The only way to get it is from BCNM and a really obscure add-on quest. New spells, only way to obtain is from HKCNM/WoE/VW. Both scrolls are easy to obtain, but either require seals of some kind to do battles, or repeats of certain events (add-on quests for Ni, WoE/VW for new spells).

What's worse, Ni is much more essential than any of the new spells. A NIN40 is considered gimp if he doesn't have Ni, and will probably have a hard time getting an invite. Comet and Blizzaja are not required spells, though. You can get on just fine without them. They're luxury spells, not essential like Ni. If Ni can be as hard to obtain as it is, then these scrolls should be hard as well.

What's wrong with having a few rare spells that not every single BLM under the sun has?
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#43kimjongil76, Posted: Oct 04 2011 at 9:07 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) If they did this, really whats the point of earning gil, questing, or doing much with your KC. or WOE.
#44 Oct 04 2011 at 10:03 AM Rating: Excellent
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Quote:
Utsu:Ni can't be quested or farmed


Yes... I mis-spoke, literally, about Ni. (because I consider repeat runs of BCNM "farming") But the Ni comparison falls flat there as most know by now that there are several fail safe strategies to get it. I have "Farmed" under observation (BCNM) for years. In my somewhat proveable opinion, Ni cant be compared because ALL melee /NIN need it (which started with lvl cap increase)

They would be compareable if lvl cap was raised to 180-190 I guess. In other words, the Ni economy is skewed by DEMAND not supply. Like I said.

I would have agreed with this line of thinking back before Abyssea. However, since the addition of Abyssea and now with the buff to GoV exp, many players have multiple jobs to the level cap. It wasn't uncommon before for that to be the case. But it's even more common now. And due to the nature of yellow procs, BLM is one of the more popular choices to level.

There are probably still fewer people with BLM leveled than people with melee jobs who sub NIN. But the number of people who have BLM leveled are much higher now. Before Abyssea, the only real obstacle keeping people from leveling BLM was that they had to solo most of their exp. That's no longer an issue.

Also, Ni for /NIN has been an incredibly powerful tool for a very, very long time. This isn't anything new. Players have always "needed" scrolls of Utsusemi: Ni. And yet, here we are 7/8 years later, and it still goes for 1 million gil or more on the AH. I have a feeling that Thunder 5, Blizzaja and Comet will very likely follow this pattern as well.
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#45 Oct 04 2011 at 11:40 AM Rating: Excellent
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If you want a free handout as you did for exp 30-90 please go play WoW.


So, why is it cool you don't see a "Scroll of Fell Cleave" or a "Scroll of Counterstance" floating around? "Because you have to level and take time hitting things..." perhaps? Well, mages certainly take the time to level and cast things, so I'm wondering why this disconnect is kosher.

As for the reason to BCs, events, or whatever, that lies in gear to upgrade these spells, WS, JA, and other situationally appropriate things. 75 was more of a sidegrade hunt, and while some liked that since their **** never got old, some hated it because their old **** was still the **** 5 years later. Either way, any caster class has hated being "double billed" just to play, as they need to buy and hunt gear just as any melee does. Reasonable access isn't much to ask for.
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#46 Oct 05 2011 at 6:02 AM Rating: Good
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What's worse, Ni is much more essential than any of the new spells. A NIN40 is considered gimp if he doesn't have Ni, and will probably have a hard time getting an invite.


Agreed, & I addressed that..... Demand raises price.

Quote:
They're luxury spells, not essential like Ni. If Ni can be as hard to obtain as it is, then these scrolls should be hard as well.


Quote:
No, Utsusemi:Ni is a direct comparison


So, an essential to almost all players/jobs item, is the same as a non-subbable, one job item ?

Cant have it both ways, comparing an item you describe as "essential" to an item you describe as "luxury" is faulty logic at best.

I admit I'm arguing from self interest, & stated so... using Ni but not responding to the Alex/Odin comparison (& not mentioning Thunder V) is about what I'd expect from a non-BLM who just recently sold a ThunderV.

I have no problem with how the economy works in game, in that HQ or Hi-power items are desireable & will be worked for, & paid for by those who want them.. or they will go without.

I would prefer a less adversarial relationship when it comes to Exclusively one job items.

According to recent (& past) Vanadiel census, almost EVERYONE has at least /NIN, while substantially less have BLM/???

Quote:
What's wrong with having a few rare spells that not every single BLM under the sun has?


Nothing, from the perspective of a non-BLM... however a BLM who takes pride in their job,feels differently.

Getting excited about updates that add versatility/utility to one of my main jobs..... then seeing that an extra 7-10 million will have to be spent to achieve them is disheartening.

Another reason I wish it were different, is that I play on XBOX & we are experiencing Lag-out, Disconnection issues in some of the new events (similar to beseiged). This is a problem in any event where you are rewarded at the end, with either an individual treasure pool or cumulative/per-event rewards. Has been this way for years in Beseiged/Campaign/Dyna (but at least in Dynamis you may have gotten your drop)
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#47 Oct 05 2011 at 8:04 AM Rating: Excellent
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kimjongil76 wrote:
If you want a free handout as you did for exp 30-90 please go play WoW.



Oh, this argument is so stupid and cliche. I'm just going to go ahead and say that anyone who spouts this nonsense is an absolute moron. I use "absolute" because that's how people who use lines like this seem to operate... on absolutes. If it's not this hard, doesn't require this many people, doesn't take this amount of time, or doesn't cost this much then it's a handout. If everyone can obtain it, it's a handout.

People like this would be the first to turn up their noses at a BLM who didn't have all his spells. They don't necessarily want things to be hard. What they really want is for things to be exclusionary. They want things they can obtain to make them feel special compared to those they look down upon. That's kind of ironic when you're playing an MMO.

The thing is, you already have gear to set you apart from "the masses." You don't need spells to make you feel special as well.
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#48 Oct 05 2011 at 8:16 AM Rating: Excellent
I'm frustrated at this, not because I have to work for my scrolls, but because the drop rate is soooo very low, that I have to devote all of my time and/or seals to obtain them.

I blew threw all of my Beastman Seals, plus a few LS mates, to get my Utsusemi scroll. I don't have thousands of them lying around because I have only been playing for a little over a year.

I have now blown threw all of the Kindred Seals trying to get Raise 3. Next step is to start doing the ENMs since you don't need seals, but if I'm reading it correctly, I can only do these once every conquest update.

Next is blowing threw all of my High Kindred Crests trying to get my BLM scrolls. VW is not an option in my social LS and I have just started doing WoE. But I have already done as many as I can in my limited play time, scoring 9k+ xp, and walking out with only random ores. The 1k entry fee isn't so much, but if I have to go repeatedly for the next 6 months, I can see my gil supply running out too.

There comes a point where you have exhausted all of your will power to get something (not to mention the required items to go to said battles) and you just have to say enough. Working for something is not bad, but doing something repeatedly for nothing gets a little ridiculous. Yes, these scrolls are luxury items and not necessary, but I didn't put my efforts into building a Yama's Staff +2 (soon to be +3) for nothing. I pride myself in my completed spell book and would like to continue on that path.

(waits for all of the "I spent 4 years in HNM LS to never get XX item." posts)
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#49 Oct 05 2011 at 9:04 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elspetta wrote:
Yes, these scrolls are luxury items and not necessary, but I didn't put my efforts into building a Yama's Staff +2 (soon to be +3) for nothing.



I strongly agree with your post except for this part, so please don't take this as me attacking you.

Spells are just abilities that cost MP. They shouldn't be seen a a luxury no matter what tier they are. They're the very basis of a mage's job. Thunder V shouldn't be considered any more a luxury than Curing Waltz IV.

HQ gear? That's a luxury. There are no HQ spells.

As for your troubles getting your scrolls, I hope your luck turns around, or SE sees what a mistake they made and ups the drop rate or adds some other form of availability.

Even before this update, I leveled BLM to 90 but I had to give it up due to spell costs. It just seemed like a huge turn off to me that I was going to have to plunk down tons of gil for gear AND even more for spells. So, spell prices certainly drove me away from BLM. I guess some would say it's working as intended, and someone like me doesn't deserve to be a BLM. I just hope those same people don't come back and complain when they need more BLMs and there simply aren't enough around to meet their needs.
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#50 Oct 05 2011 at 9:14 AM Rating: Default
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
So, an essential to almost all players/jobs item, is the same as a non-subbable, one job item ?

I didn't say it was the same, I said it was a more extreme example of the same exact thing. And it is. It's a scroll only available as a rare drop from seal battles & a couple random side-quests.

Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Cant have it both ways, comparing an item you describe as "essential" to an item you describe as "luxury" is faulty logic at best.

The fact that it's essential while the new spells are luxury just makes the point all the more potent. You're complaining about spells you do not need even in the most remote sense to do your job.

Terrifyingspeed wrote:
According to recent (& past) Vanadiel census, almost EVERYONE has at least /NIN, while substantially less have BLM/???

And this is your argument that it should be easier to obtain BLM spells? You might want to think that through a little better.

Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Getting excited about updates that add versatility/utility to one of my main jobs..... then seeing that an extra 7-10 million will have to be spent to achieve them is disheartening.

You say that like I'm not in the same boat. Holy 2, Curaga V, Boost-STR, are all very very expensive. Not as much as all the new black magic added together, but it's easily 3 mil. I simply haven't bought them yet, even though I really want Boost-STR for STR+19 to my whole party. I'm waiting for prices to come down a bit. That's how you play the game. FFXI doesn't owe you anything "easy".
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Pergatory (Asura, Kupo LS) WHM99 ~ SMN99 ~ DRK99
"If you want to know me, look inside your heart." -Lao Tzu
#51 Oct 05 2011 at 9:15 AM Rating: Good
Camiie wrote:
Spells are just abilities that cost MP. They shouldn't be seen a a luxury no matter what tier they are. They're the very basis of a mage's job. Thunder V shouldn't be considered any more a luxury than Curing Waltz IV.


I call them a luxury because they are not essential to proccing in Aby and I get along just fine with the scrolls I do have. However, if they are procs for VW, then I sure hope the people selling them for 1+ mil gil (Thunder V is currently 1.8m and Comet is steadily rising and at 3m) aren't the same ones ******** when the BLM shows up to these events w/o the spells.

The problem is definitely a 2~way street though. People are putting them up for way too much gil and others are buying them. The BLMs buying the scrolls for this amount of gil are telling the people lucky enough to get the drops "hey it's ok that you are selling our scrolls for this much money, keep it up!" If all BLM said "**** No!" and refused to buy the scrolls, they wouldn't be going for so much gil.

And yes, you heard it right ... the scrolls are rising in price, not lowering. The first few went for 500k and then gradually have gone up. It is totally ridiculous.
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