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Awesome Game ShowFollow

#152 Apr 01 2008 at 4:54 PM Rating: Decent
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You have exactly the same odds on picking any given box.

There is 33% chance you will pick box A

there is also 33% chance you will pick box B

So there is the same chance that you picked the box he leaves you as there is of you picking the box you did.


Sure. It's just not 50/50. The only thing that makes this even slightly confusing to anyone is the stipulation that the game show host will open every door that is empty except one and the one that you chose. If there were 50 Billion doors and he opened 49,999,999,998 of them, would you find it equally likely that you picked the one in 50 billion door with your one guess or that he opened all but the correct door?

Obviously your chances of picking the correct door out of two is 50/50. There's no point at all in stating this. It's a given. That's not the situation though. The situation is you choose 1, then the host opens ALL other doors that aren't winners. The confusing part of the given problem is that that all of them happens to be 1.



Edited, Apr 1st 2008 8:59pm by Smasharoo
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#153 Apr 01 2008 at 5:04 PM Rating: Good
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Baron von tarv wrote:
Quote:
What is your rationale for the bold statement? Where do you get 50%?
how many boxes are there?

2 boxes.

how many cars are there

1 car.

1 in 2 chance it could be behind either box.

1 in 2 = 50%

That never changes, ever, your % chance on chosing the right box to take may change and the odds increase but the odds on it being in one or the other at any given time does not.


1 in 2 is only a 50% shot in a random system. This is not a random system. The car is behind second curtain twice as often as it it behind the first curtain.

If you had to guess if I was left- or right-handed, which would you pick? You've only got one of two choices but you're chances are not 50/50 because there are many more right-handed people than left-handed.

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#154 Apr 01 2008 at 5:09 PM Rating: Good
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PunkFloyd the Flatulent wrote:
1 in 2 is only a 50% shot in a random system. This is not a random system. The car is behind second curtain twice as often as it it behind the first curtain.

If you had to guess if I was left- or right-handed, which would you pick? You've only got one of two choices but you're chances are not 50/50 because there are many more right-handed people than left-handed.




You also have a 50% chance of dieing tomorrow. And a 50% chance of having sex with Angelina Jolie. And a 50% chance of killing your little brother with a baloon.

It's true, cause there are only two choices, either you do or you don't.

Edited, Dec 20th 2012 4:41pm by TirithRR
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