Awesome Game ShowFollow

You seem to have difficulty seeing that the two are one and the same.

Stop me if you get lost in this logical proposition, hopefully you can see with this method, if you don't get the expansion method.

When you pick something out of a 1 in 3 chance, you win 1/3 of time time, correct?

You then also have a 2 in 3 chance of losing, correct?

If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors, correct?


If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors even if you would win one less goat from the two doors, correct?

1/3 chance of car or 2/3 chance of car, is the reason you would do this, correct?

Opening a goat door that you didn't pick is like winning one less goat from the set of two unchosen doors, correct?

two choices, 1/3 car, 2/3 goat vs. 2/3 car 1/3 goat, you choose the 2/3 car correct?

So logically you should change to the door you didn't pick first.

Ahh, mkay.. I didn't read through everything 'cause I'm awesome like that.

Then wouldn't it be 50/50 as opposed to a 66% chance?

The only thing that matters is the outcome of changing your mind when you chose that door.

Will you win if you choose the door with the car and change your mind? No.
Will you win if you choose the door with goat #1 and change your mind? Yes.
Will you win if you choose the door with goat #2 and change your mind? Yes.

Would it be easier to understand if they were not both goats? If one was a goat and one was a cow?

If you choose the car, and change, you lose.
If you choose the goat, and change, you win.
If you choose the cow, and change, you win.

It all comes out to 2/3.

So what's the point of even havin' three doors if an incorrect one is always opened for you?

The point is that it's a game show, and doing it this way is more exciting then handing them a prize?

Its not the only thing that matters. The host's choice of doors tells you a few valuable things. It tells you that one of the 2 remaining doors are a winner. As you said before:The same is true of the opposite outcome. It doesn't matter that there were originally 3 doors, because now, the host's choice of opening a door has shown you that one of the two remaining doors is empty and one is a prize. My above chart is the smoking gun on this.

What's the point of Howie Mandel Deal or No Deal?

Mindless entertainment. Which this forum has managed to **** up by using their mind.

I'm bored of this, we are going around in circles. It was fun Ash, good trolling, kept me busy during the last 30-45 minutes of work. Hopefully you really do see the truth, and are just acting. Gotta pack up and head home.

I understand that.

Does the host always open a door containing a real goat? (read: a door not hiding the car.)

Yes.

Then it's 50/50.

An incorrect door is always revealed to you before any sort of finalizing decision is to be made, thus forcing one of the three doors completely out of the equation.

Okay, I'll go camp you in other threads.

Absolutely yes. This is key to the exercise.