**snapshot**, where there are only 2 doors, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right.

No, you never truly have a 50% chance in any part of the

__full equation__, but in this one frame of it, you do. That's what Tarv was saying.

**Forums**- Cross Site
- Out Of Topic
- Awesome Game Show

Soulless Internet Tiger

35,244 posts

OK, take a look at this from simple math. There are 3 doors, you subtract one away. Now there are 2. What is the chance that you pick the right door now? This is the perspective I'm talking about. From this **snapshot**, where there are only 2 doors, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right.

No, you never truly have a 50% chance in any part of the__full equation__, but in this one frame of it, you do. That's what Tarv was saying.

No, you never truly have a 50% chance in any part of the

Donate. One day it could be your family.

*An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.* Victor Hugo

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Lets look at this from the top.

3 doors, one has a prize, the others are empty. The odds are extremely clear: you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the correct door.

You pick a door. It has 33% chance of being a winner.

The host opens a door that you didn't pick, revealing an empty door.

Does your door still have a 33% chance of winning? NO. It does not, because the equation isn't valid anymore. He gives you the option of switching doors. So now, armed with this knowledge, you are looking at the following situation:

2 doors, one has a prize, the other is empty. The odds are still extremely clear: you have a 1/2 chance of choosing the correct door.

I don't care what fancy math you want to apply to it. It doesn't matter whether you switch doors or not, that '2/3rds' odds of you having chosen the incorrect door does*not* apply to the new situation.

3 doors, one has a prize, the others are empty. The odds are extremely clear: you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the correct door.

You pick a door. It has 33% chance of being a winner.

The host opens a door that you didn't pick, revealing an empty door.

Does your door still have a 33% chance of winning? NO. It does not, because the equation isn't valid anymore. He gives you the option of switching doors. So now, armed with this knowledge, you are looking at the following situation:

2 doors, one has a prize, the other is empty. The odds are still extremely clear: you have a 1/2 chance of choosing the correct door.

I don't care what fancy math you want to apply to it. It doesn't matter whether you switch doors or not, that '2/3rds' odds of you having chosen the incorrect door does

Soulless Internet Tiger

35,244 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

I don't care what fancy math you want to apply to it. It doesn't matter whether you switch doors or not, that '2/3rds' odds of you having chosen the incorrect door does *not* apply to the new situation.

Donate. One day it could be your family.

*An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.* Victor Hugo

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

I don't care what fancy math you want to apply to it. It doesn't matter whether you switch doors or not, that '2/3rds' odds of you having chosen the incorrect door does *not* apply to the new situation.

Unplanned

12,931 posts

So... now we know who here failed math.

Just as Planned.

Scholar

5,082 posts

Think about it this way if you had a million doors with 1 car and 999,999 goats. you pick a door at random the host (who knows where the car is) opens 999,998 other doors revealing all goats

This is the exact same problem just on a grander scale. The odds of you having initially picked the car are 1 in a million and the odds of you getting the car if you swap are now 999,999 in a million.

Previous knowledge clearly applies

*Edited, Apr 1st 2008 4:17pm by SWM*

This is the exact same problem just on a grander scale. The odds of you having initially picked the car are 1 in a million and the odds of you getting the car if you swap are now 999,999 in a million.

Previous knowledge clearly applies

In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Timelordwho wrote:

So... now we know who here failed math.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

SWM wrote:

Think about it this way if you had a million doors with 1 car and 999,999 goats. you pick a door at random the host (who knows where the car is) opens 999,998 other doors revealing all goats

This is the exact same problem just on a grander scale. The odds of you having initially picked the car are 1 in a million and the odds of you getting the car if you swap are now 999,999 in a million.

Previous knowledge clearly applies

*Edited, Apr 1st 2008 4:17pm by SWM*

This is the exact same problem just on a grander scale. The odds of you having initially picked the car are 1 in a million and the odds of you getting the car if you swap are now 999,999 in a million.

Previous knowledge clearly applies

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

I don't care what fancy math you want to apply to it. It doesn't matter whether you switch doors or not, that '2/3rds' odds of you having chosen the incorrect door does *not* apply to the new situation.

No, 2/3rds is the correct answer. Take the graphical example of all possibilities, part of which was shown in an earlier post. 2/3rds of those possibilities ends with you winning a car.

You choose Door Number 1.[o] [x] [x] You change, you lose. Total So Far: 0/1 [x] [o] [x] You change, you win. Total So Far: 1/2 [x] [x] [o] You change, you win. Total So Far: 2/3You choose Door Number 2.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 3/4 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 3/5 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 4/6You choose Door Number 3.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 5/7 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 6/8 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 6/9

As you can see, out of all the possible outcomes when you change your door, you end up with 6 winning outcomes out of 9 total.

6 chances of winning outta 9 is a 2/3rds possibility of winning if you change your mind.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Scholar

5,082 posts

TirithRR if I wasnt convinced before then I sure am now.

In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

No, 2/3rds is the correct answer. Take the graphical example of all possibilities, part of which was shown in an earlier post. 2/3rds of those possibilities ends with you winning a car.

You choose Door Number 1.[o] [x] [x] You change, you lose. Total So Far: 0/1 [x] [o] [x] You change, you win. Total So Far: 1/2 [x] [x] [o] You change, you win. Total So Far: 2/3You choose Door Number 2.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 3/4 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 3/5 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 4/6You choose Door Number 3.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 5/7 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 6/8 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 6/9

As you can see, out of all the possible outcomes when you change your door, you end up with 6 winning outcomes out of 9 total.

6 chances of winning outta 9 is a 2/3rds possibility of winning if you change your mind.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

SWM wrote:

TirithRR if I wasnt convinced before then I sure am now.

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Ah, some data to work with. This is assuming which door was opened, and which door had the winning prize to start with?

This is all possibilities of door selections and prize locations.

Edit: With 3 doors, and one prize that is.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Stop rating me down for working through some ******* math and logic, you supercilious pricks.

Whoever you are.

Whoever you are.

Unplanned

12,931 posts

TirithRR: You could have just redirected them to my post earlier in the thread

Ash...you are either doing an excellent job trolling, or you clearly don't know what the **** you are talking about.

Ash...you are either doing an excellent job trolling, or you clearly don't know what the **** you are talking about.

Just as Planned.

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

Timelordwho wrote:

TirithRR: You could have just redirected them to my post earlier in the thread

Ash...you are either doing an excellent job trolling, or you clearly don't know what the @#%^ you are talking about.

Ash...you are either doing an excellent job trolling, or you clearly don't know what the @#%^ you are talking about.

I mentioned your post... indirectly. I just couldn't remember who wrote it. I merely expanded on it to show all the possible outcomes, to try and show beyond a doubt that it was true.

Edit:

Basically, it boils down to this:

If you ignore the fact that there were 3 doors, and say that it's now only a 50/50, 2 door problem, you are forgetting the fact that there were two different goats for you to originally choose. Choose either of the two goats, and you win, choose the car, and you lose.

Changing your mind swaps the probability the outcome. You have to choose wrong first in order to win.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

4,894 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Stop rating me down for working through some ******* math and logic, you supercilious pricks.

Whoever you are.

Whoever you are.

Seriously. They're just ****** because they picked goats.

PunkFloyd

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

No, 2/3rds is the correct answer. Take the graphical example of all possibilities, part of which was shown in an earlier post. 2/3rds of those possibilities ends with you winning a car.

You choose Door Number 1.[o] [x] [x] You change, you lose. Total So Far: 0/1 [x] [o] [x] You change, you win. Total So Far: 1/2 [x] [x] [o] You change, you win. Total So Far: 2/3You choose Door Number 2.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 3/4 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 3/5 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 4/6You choose Door Number 3.[o] [x] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 5/7 [x] [o] [x] You Change, you win. Total So Far: 6/8 [x] [x] [o] You Change, you lose. Total So Far: 6/9

As you can see, out of all the possible outcomes when you change your door, you end up with 6 winning outcomes out of 9 total.

6 chances of winning outta 9 is a 2/3rds possibility of winning if you change your mind.

Lets see: (we'll have a door that the host can't open represented in bold.)

You choose door 1:

Door 2 is opened. You change, you lose.

You choose door 2:

[x]

Door 3 is opened. You change, you lose.

[x]

You choose door 3:

[x]

[x] [x]

Door 2 is opened. You change, you lose.

Your chart leaves out a few possible scenarios.

Repressed Memories

20,731 posts

Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:

It is if you just take a snapshot in time, which is what Tarv's doing. Technically, you're right. But once you eliminate one door and then **forget** it existed, you're left with 2 choices. At this point, you're first guess has as likely a chance of winning as changing does.

But that would be missing the entire point of this puzzle? The point is you do know that there were three doors and that one of the wrong doors was removed, now how can you use this information to your advantage.

What you are arguing is correct, but none of it applies because the given situation is not the one your argument is based on. There is no forgetting of previous information in this situation; there is no snapshot in time.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Someone didn't like my glaringly obvious logic.

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Your chart leaves out a few possible scenarios.

While it may seem that way, it's not.

The only thing that matters is what door you choose, and whether or not you change. It doesn't matter what the door is that the game host picks.

If you choose the winning door originally, and change, you lose. You cannot count that twice, cause it's the same scenario.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Cervixhouse-Five

30,646 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Someone didn't like my glaringly obvious logic.

I rated you back up. I don't understand this thread, and I'm having horrible flash backs to statistics, but it looked smart.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

If you choose the winning door originally, and change, you lose. You cannot count that twice, cause it's the same scenario.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors and change to the

It's not a 66.66% chance of winning.

Unless I've misread somewhere and by "changing" you mean pick the opposite of whatever outcome you've just chosen.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors and change to the

It's not a 66.66% chance of winning.

Unless I've misread somewhere and by "changing" you mean pick the opposite of whatever outcome you've just chosen.

Unplanned

12,931 posts

Quote:

You can be a @#%^ing genius in math and still not understand how it applies to an everyday situation. This situation is a perfect case in point.

You seem to have difficulty seeing that the two are one and the same.

Stop me if you get lost in this logical proposition, hopefully you can see with this method, if you don't get the expansion method.

When you pick something out of a 1 in 3 chance, you win 1/3 of time time, correct?

You then also have a 2 in 3 chance of losing, correct?

If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors, correct?

If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors even if you would win one less goat from the two doors, correct?

1/3 chance of car or 2/3 chance of car, is the reason you would do this, correct?

Opening a goat door that you didn't pick is like winning one less goat from the set of two unchosen doors, correct?

two choices, 1/3 car, 2/3 goat vs. 2/3 car 1/3 goat, you choose the 2/3 car correct?

So logically you should change to the door you didn't pick first.

Just as Planned.

Repressed Memories

20,731 posts

Belkira the Tulip wrote:

I rated you back up. I don't understand this thread, and I'm having horrible flash backs to statistics, but it looked smart.

How

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Prince Kaain wrote:

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

If you decide in the beginning that are you are going to change your mind, then you must choose a goat first to win, which gives you a 66.667% chance of winning.

If you choose one of the two losing doors and change to the

It's not a 66.66% chance of winning.

Unless I've misread somewhere and by "changing" you mean pick the opposite of whatever outcome you've just chosen.

Ahh, mkay.. I didn't read through everything 'cause I'm awesome like that.

Then wouldn't it be 50/50 as opposed to a 66% chance?

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Timelordwho wrote:

Quote:

You can be a @#%^ing genius in math and still not understand how it applies to an everyday situation. This situation is a perfect case in point.

You seem to have difficulty seeing that the two are one and the same.

Stop me if you get lost in this logical proposition, hopefully you can see with this method, if you don't get the expansion method.

When you pick something out of a 1 in 3 chance, you win 1/3 of time time, correct?

You then also have a 2 in 3 chance of losing, correct?

If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors, correct?

If you were offered the choice of taking one door, or taking two doors, you would take two doors even if you would win one less goat from the two doors, correct?

1/3 chance of car or 2/3 chance of car, is the reason you would do this, correct?

Opening a goat door that you didn't pick is like winning one less goat from the set of two unchosen doors, correct?

two choices, 1/3 car, 2/3 goat vs. 2/3 car 1/3 goat, you choose the 2/3 car correct?

So logically you should change to the door you didn't pick first.

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

If you choose the winning door originally, and change, you lose. You cannot count that twice, cause it's the same scenario.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the other of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The only thing that matters is the outcome of changing your mind when you chose that door.

Will you win if you choose the door with the car and change your mind? No.

Will you win if you choose the door with goat #1 and change your mind? Yes.

Will you win if you choose the door with goat #2 and change your mind? Yes.

Would it be easier to understand if they were not both goats? If one was a goat and one was a cow?

If you choose the car, and change, you lose.

If you choose the goat, and change, you win.

If you choose the cow, and change, you win.

It all comes out to 2/3.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Cervixhouse-Five

30,646 posts

Allegory wrote:

Belkira the Tulip wrote:

I rated you back up. I don't understand this thread, and I'm having horrible flash backs to statistics, but it looked smart.

How

I'm confident that I think it looked smart.

But, honestly, you're all looking at this the wrong way. You have a 100% chance in winning. If you don't get a car, you get a goat! How awesome would that be?

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Belkira the Tulip wrote:

Allegory wrote:

Belkira the Tulip wrote:

I rated you back up. I don't understand this thread, and I'm having horrible flash backs to statistics, but it looked smart.

How

I'm confident that I think it looked smart.

But, honestly, you're all looking at this the wrong way. You have a 100% chance in winning. If you don't get a car, you get a goat! How awesome would that be?

Unplanned

12,931 posts

Quote:

By this logic, it doesn't matter which of the losing doors you picked, because the outcome is also the same. Which would revise your above list to:

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

The Possibilities are:

If you choose one of the two losing doors, and change, you win.

If you choose the winning door, and change, you lose.

This is exactly the point!

you have 2 chances at initially picking the losing door and 1 chance at initially picking the wining door. Thus 2/3 chance of winning if you switch doors.

Quote:

How about you refute any of the sh*t I've said after that post, and stop rating me down?

Edit: Not rating you down, just trying to help you understand.

Just as Planned.

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

So what's the point of even havin' three doors if an incorrect one is always opened for you?

Your Wet Nightmare

19,727 posts

Ash whines about his karma enough that I'm definitely going to start camping him. Hard. Like, Tailmon hard.

Unplanned

12,931 posts

Quote:

So what's the point of even havin' three doors if an incorrect one is always opened for you?

The point is that it's a game show, and doing it this way is more exciting then handing them a prize?

Just as Planned.

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

So what's the point of even havin' three doors if an incorrect one is always opened for you?

It's just a stupid TV Game Show thing, supposed to add suspense by revealing one of the doors you didn't choose, and asking you if you wish to change your mind now.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

The only thing that matters is the outcome of changing your mind when you chose that door.

W

W

Quote:

If you choose the winning door originally, and change, you lose. You cannot count that twice, cause it's the same scenario.

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

It's just a stupid TV Game Show thing, supposed to add suspense by revealing one of the doors you didn't choose, and asking you if you wish to change your mind now.

Timelordwho wrote:

The point is that it's a game show, and doing it this way is more exciting then handing them a prize?

And the one opened is always an incorrect one? Or does it show a goat anyway if the host opens the car door?

If this has been discussed already I do not apologize.

Cervixhouse-Five

30,646 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

So what's the point of even havin' three doors if an incorrect one is always opened for you?

What's the point of

Mindless entertainment. Which this forum has managed to **** up by using their mind.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

TirithRR the Mundane wrote:

It's just a stupid TV Game Show thing, supposed to add suspense by revealing one of the doors you didn't choose, and asking you if you wish to change your mind now.

Timelordwho wrote:

The point is that it's a game show, and doing it this way is more exciting then handing them a prize?

And the one opened is always an incorrect one? Or does it show a goat anyway if the host opens the car door?

If this has been discussed already I do not apologize.

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

I'm bored of this, we are going around in circles. It was fun Ash, good trolling, kept me busy during the last 30-45 minutes of work. Hopefully you really do see the truth, and are just acting. Gotta pack up and head home.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Unplanned

12,931 posts

If it helps, think of this like this:

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

Just as Planned.

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

There are three doors, and you pick one. One has a prize, the others have goats, or something stupid.

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

I understand that.

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

There are three doors, and you pick one. One has a prize, the others have goats, or something stupid.

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

I understand that.

And BT: get the **** out of this thread.

I bet you think this title's about you

14,189 posts

Timelordwho wrote:

If it helps, think of this like this:

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

Yes.

Then it's 50/50.

An incorrect door is

Worst. Title. Ever!

16,405 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

There are three doors, and you pick one. One has a prize, the others have goats, or something stupid.

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

I understand that.

Sometimes he opens the door, and it is a goat, but really a car. It turns out to be the next generation of Transformers.

Transformers, BeastofBurden Wars.

Can't sleep, clown will eat me.

Your Wet Nightmare

19,727 posts

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

And BT: get the @#%^ out of this thread.

Okay, I'll go camp you in other threads.

Scholar

424 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

Timelordwho wrote:

If it helps, think of this like this:

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

a goat, a pig and a car are hidden behind 3 doors.

The problem remains the same, but the host will open either the goat or the pig door. Does that make it clearer?

Yes.

Then it's 50/50.

An incorrect door is

Sorry, but this would be the case only if the host were to open a door without asking you to pick one first. It really is relevant that you can pick one of them before he opens one, because the host

1) Never opens the door you picked.

2) Never opens the door that has the car.

So, if he can't open the one you picked OR the one that has the car, then, if you pick a door that DOESN'T have a car in it, he will be forced to open the other door that has no car in it.

Therefore, if you pick one of the goat doors at first, and you have a 2/3 chance of doing that, you win by changing.

The 50-50 chance is only true if you ignore that the host can't open the door you picked, or if you forget which door you picked.

4,894 posts

Prince Kaain wrote:

AshOnMyTomatoes, Guardian of the Glade wrote:

Before showing if you win or not, the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick and shows it has a goat. He gives you the option to switch doors. Do you switch?

I understand that.

Absolutely yes. This is key to the exercise.

PunkFloyd

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