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Just as Planned.
Timelordwho wrote:
The continuing saga of the Allakhazam office.
Edited, Mar 31st 2008 8:21pm by Sogoro
Bringing derailâ„¢ back.
Qui s'estime petit deviendra grand.
Qui s'estime petit deviendra grand.
Quote:
Math says to @#%^ off
I am not arguing that you shouldn't pick the other one you think cnut, i am pointing out that when left with two boxes it is not automaticly a 100% result when switching.
2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated
Quote:
you know that must be the right choice.
Baron von tarv wrote:
Quote:
Math says to @#%^ off
I am not arguing that you shouldn't pick the other one you think cnut, i am pointing out that when left with two boxes it is not automaticly a 100% result when switching.
2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated
Quote:
you know that must be the right choice.
With two doors to choose from, your odds are 50/50 only in a _random_ system.
But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.
Love,
PunkFloyd
PunkFloyd
Quote:
But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.
Baron von tarv wrote:
Quote:
But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.
You're such a f*cking moron. It's really funny.
Quote:
You're such a f*cking moron. It's really funny.
Go on try.
Incidentally, this is nothing like how Deal or No Deal works.
SUPER BANNED FOR FAILING TO POST 20K IN A TIMELY MANNER
Baron von tarv wrote:
Quote:
But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.
Exactly, I never said you had a 100% chance.
Baron von tarv wrote:
2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50.
Your statement is 100% incorrect.
Love,
PunkFloyd
PunkFloyd
it's dead AND alive... or something?
Baron von tarv wrote:
2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated It's PROBABLY the right choice, but you CANNOT be certain.
Quote:
you know that must be the right choice.
I was trying to avoid tautology; it would be redundant to reiterate such a pleonasm.^^ Obviously the entire situation still involves probability.
Your statement about 50% is still incorrect.
Edited, Mar 31st 2008 9:27pm by Allegory
Baron von tarv wrote:
Please explain how ANYTHING i have said is incorrect.
Go on try.
Go on try.
This bit is wrong
Quote:
2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50.
The box you chose was chosen at random from 3 boxes thus a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The box that is left was not left unopened randomly, it was left unopened on the basis that the other box contained a goat and so the probability of it containing the car is the sum total of the boxes at the initial point of the game (1 in 3 plus 1 in 3 = 2 in 3).
In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008
SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now
SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now
Quote:
The box you chose was chosen at random from 3 boxes thus a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The box that is left was not left unopened randomly, it was left unopened on the basis that the other box contained a goat and so the probability of it containing the car is the sum total of the boxes at the initial point of the game (1 in 3 plus 1 in 3 = 2 in 3).
There is a 66% chance your CHOISE of box is correct, there is a 50% chance that the car is in a particular box.
the point i am making is no matter how much you swing the chance your CHOICE is correct because there is still two boxes left you can't be certain that you have the right box.
Tarv your original statement was:
It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.
I don't mean to be rude, but what your trying to arguing what you are saying is pointless. You're now arguing that you mean that out of the two boxes/doors there is a 50% chance one has a car and that one can't be certain which box/door has the car. While both of these statements are true they mean nothing useful. Out of any two objects you have a 50% chance of selecting one, and nearly every situation involving probability lacks perfect certainty. Right, but not relevant.
Edited, Apr 1st 2008 4:58am by Allegory
Quote:
No you don't, it's Equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time.
a choise of 2 doors, one being right is still 50/50 reguardless of previous choices.
a choise of 2 doors, one being right is still 50/50 reguardless of previous choices.
It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.
I don't mean to be rude, but what your trying to arguing what you are saying is pointless. You're now arguing that you mean that out of the two boxes/doors there is a 50% chance one has a car and that one can't be certain which box/door has the car. While both of these statements are true they mean nothing useful. Out of any two objects you have a 50% chance of selecting one, and nearly every situation involving probability lacks perfect certainty. Right, but not relevant.
Edited, Apr 1st 2008 4:58am by Allegory
Allegory wrote:
It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.
Personally, I like to look at it the other way around. The doors I didn't pick, have a 2/3 chance of being wrong and after opening the third door, it increases the likelihood that the remaining door I didn't pick, is still wrong. In case none of you notice, I like to bend things so they work for me, because I'm never wrong.
Donate. One day it could be your family.
An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo
An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo
When I was a kid (ha!), I had a pet goat named Florence. She slept on the end of my bed.
Turin wrote:
Seriously, what the f*ck nature?
Did you also have pets named Dylan, Dougal and Zebedee?
In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008
SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now
SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now
Scholar
25 posts
Sogoro the Malevolent wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
The continuing saga of the Allakhazam office.
Edited, Mar 31st 2008 8:21pm by Sogoro
This made my day.
I don't think this game sounds awesome.
But then, I'm not a big fan of "Deal or No Deal."
But then, I'm not a big fan of "Deal or No Deal."
From The Straight Dope:
Cecil wrote:
A friend of mine did suggest another way of thinking about the problem that may help clarify things. Suppose we have the three doors again, one concealing the prize. You pick door #1. Now you're offered this choice: open door #1, or open door #2 and door #3. In the latter case you keep the prize if it's behind either door. You'd rather have a two-in-three shot at the prize than one-in-three, wouldn't you? If you think about it, the original problem offers you basically the same choice. Monty is saying in effect: you can keep your one door or you can have the other two doors, one of which (a non-prize door) I'll open for you. Still don't get it? Then at least have the sense to keep quiet about it.
In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:
Allegory wrote:
It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.
Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.
You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.
As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.
Love,
PunkFloyd
PunkFloyd
I take it someone watched 21.
I think the reasoning was ********* and you now have a 50/50 of winning with either door.
I think the reasoning was ********* and you now have a 50/50 of winning with either door.
PunkFloyd the Flatulent wrote:
Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.
You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.
As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.
You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.
As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.
Ok, now you're being as dense as Tarv was. If you forget (should I bold that again or would you miss it again?) that there were 3 doors after one is opened, you only have 2 doors left. At this point, you do have a 50/50 shot. Taking the bigger picture, you never do. But, using the snapshot in time, where the 3rd no longer exists, you do have a 50/50 chance.
Donate. One day it could be your family.
An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo
An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come. Victor Hugo
Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:
PunkFloyd the Flatulent wrote:
Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.
You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.
As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.
You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.
As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.
Ok, now you're being as dense as Tarv was. If you forget (should I bold that again or would you miss it again?) that there were 3 doors after one is opened, you only have 2 doors left. At this point, you do have a 50/50 shot. Taking the bigger picture, you never do. But, using the snapshot in time, where the 3rd no longer exists, you do have a 50/50 chance.
I am not being dense, this is exactly my point. You do *not* have a 50/50 chance. You have a 33.3/66.6 chance.
You only have a 50/50 chance if the car is randomly behind one of the two curtains, but it is not randomly behind one of the curtains. It's twice as likely to be behind the curtain not initially picked.
Love,
PunkFloyd
PunkFloyd
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