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Unplanned

13,234 posts

Just as Planned.

Wants you as a new recruit!

17,414 posts

Timelordwho wrote:

The continuing saga of the Allakhazam office.

derail™ back.

Qui s'estime petit deviendra grand.

Bringing Qui s'estime petit deviendra grand.

2,189 posts

Viseziox wrote:

I think you're a forum ****

Fancy Shmancy Wiki

[ffxisig]186182[/ffxisig]

Scholar

8,619 posts

Quote:

Math says to @#%^ off

I am not arguing that you shouldn't pick the other one you think cnut, i am pointing out that when left with two boxes it is not automaticly a 100% result when switching.

2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated

Quote:

you know that must be the right choice.

Jarkeld Hammerhiem Lvl 36 Paladin/Lvl 30 Armourer

Lestril Hammerhiem Lvl 40 Monk/Lvl 28 Provisioner Blackburrow server

Iaedian Tailchaser lvl 60 Fury/36 Jeweler. Proud member of <Bane> Crushbone server

Your mind is like a Parachute, it only works if it's open.

4,900 posts

Baron von tarv wrote:

Quote:

Math says to @#%^ off

I am not arguing that you shouldn't pick the other one you think cnut, i am pointing out that when left with two boxes it is not automaticly a 100% result when switching.

2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated

Quote:

you know that must be the right choice.

With two doors to choose from, your odds are 50/50 only in a _random_ system.

But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.

PunkFloyd

Scholar

8,619 posts

Quote:

But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.

Jarkeld Hammerhiem Lvl 36 Paladin/Lvl 30 Armourer

Lestril Hammerhiem Lvl 40 Monk/Lvl 28 Provisioner Blackburrow server

Iaedian Tailchaser lvl 60 Fury/36 Jeweler. Proud member of <Bane> Crushbone server

Your mind is like a Parachute, it only works if it's open.

Your Wet Nightmare

19,727 posts

Baron von tarv wrote:

Quote:

But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.

You're such a f*cking moron. It's really funny.

Scholar

8,619 posts

Quote:

You're such a f*cking moron. It's really funny.

Go on try.

Jarkeld Hammerhiem Lvl 36 Paladin/Lvl 30 Armourer

Lestril Hammerhiem Lvl 40 Monk/Lvl 28 Provisioner Blackburrow server

Iaedian Tailchaser lvl 60 Fury/36 Jeweler. Proud member of <Bane> Crushbone server

Your mind is like a Parachute, it only works if it's open.

Silent But Deadly

19,999 posts

Incidentally, this is *nothing* like how Deal or No Deal works.

SUPER BANNED FOR FAILING TO POST 20K IN A TIMELY MANNER

4,900 posts

Baron von tarv wrote:

Quote:

But when you are posed with your second choice (to switch or not), it is not a random system: one door will win 1/3 of the time and the other will win 2/3 of the time. This is, by definition, not random.

Exactly, I never said you had a 100% chance.

Baron von tarv wrote:

2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50.

Your statement is 100% incorrect.

PunkFloyd

Imaginary Friend

16,057 posts

it's dead AND alive... or something?

Repressed Memories

20,957 posts

Baron von tarv wrote:

2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50. the fact you have shortened the odds doesn't make it as was stated It's PROBABLY the right choice, but you CANNOT be certain.

Quote:

you know that must be the right choice.

I was trying to avoid tautology; it would be redundant to reiterate such a pleonasm.^^ Obviously the entire situation still involves probability.

Your statement about 50% is still incorrect.

Scholar

5,085 posts

Baron von tarv wrote:

Please explain how ANYTHING i have said is incorrect.

Go on try.

Go on try.

This bit is wrong

Quote:

2 boxes left, only one has a car thus 50/50.

The box you chose was chosen at random from 3 boxes thus a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The box that is left was not left unopened randomly, it was left unopened on the basis that the other box contained a goat and so the probability of it containing the car is the sum total of the boxes at the initial point of the game (1 in 3 plus 1 in 3 = 2 in 3).

In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

Scholar

8,619 posts

Quote:

The box you chose was chosen at random from 3 boxes thus a 1 in 3 chance of winning. The box that is left was not left unopened randomly, it was left unopened on the basis that the other box contained a goat and so the probability of it containing the car is the sum total of the boxes at the initial point of the game (1 in 3 plus 1 in 3 = 2 in 3).

There is a 66% chance your CHOISE of box is correct, there is a 50% chance that the car is in a particular box.

the point i am making is no matter how much you swing the chance your CHOICE is correct because there is still two boxes left you can't be

Jarkeld Hammerhiem Lvl 36 Paladin/Lvl 30 Armourer

Lestril Hammerhiem Lvl 40 Monk/Lvl 28 Provisioner Blackburrow server

Iaedian Tailchaser lvl 60 Fury/36 Jeweler. Proud member of <Bane> Crushbone server

Your mind is like a Parachute, it only works if it's open.

Repressed Memories

20,957 posts

Tarv your original statement was:

It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.

I don't mean to be rude, but what your trying to arguing what you are saying is pointless. You're now arguing that you mean that out of the two boxes/doors there is a 50% chance one has a car and that one can't be certain which box/door has the car. While both of these statements are true they mean nothing useful. Out of any two objects you have a 50% chance of selecting one, and nearly every situation involving probability lacks perfect certainty. Right, but not relevant.

*Edited, Apr 1st 2008 4:58am by Allegory*

Quote:

No you don't, it's Equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time.

a choise of 2 doors, one being right is still 50/50 reguardless of previous choices.

a choise of 2 doors, one being right is still 50/50 reguardless of previous choices.

It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.

I don't mean to be rude, but what your trying to arguing what you are saying is pointless. You're now arguing that you mean that out of the two boxes/doors there is a 50% chance one has a car and that one can't be certain which box/door has the car. While both of these statements are true they mean nothing useful. Out of any two objects you have a 50% chance of selecting one, and nearly every situation involving probability lacks perfect certainty. Right, but not relevant.

Soulless Internet Tiger

35,410 posts

Allegory wrote:

It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.

Personally, I like to look at it the other way around. The doors I didn't pick, have a 2/3 chance of being wrong and after opening the third door, it increases the likelihood that the remaining door I didn't pick, is still wrong. In case none of you notice, I like to bend things so they work for me, because I'm never wrong.

Donate. One day it could be your family.

*An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.* Victor Hugo

Vagina Dentata,

what a wonderful phrase

what a wonderful phrase

30,106 posts

When I was a kid (ha!), I had a pet goat named Florence. She slept on the end of my bed.

Turin wrote:

Seriously, what the f*ck nature?

Scholar

5,085 posts

Did you also have pets named Dylan, Dougal and Zebedee?

In Loving Memory of SatanWantsMe 2006-2008

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

SWM Wiki | Journal | What I am listening to right now

Scholar

25 posts

Sogoro the Malevolent wrote:

Timelordwho wrote:

The continuing saga of the Allakhazam office.

This made my day.

Cervixhouse-Five

30,646 posts

I don't think this game sounds awesome.

But then, I'm not a big fan of "Deal or No Deal."

But then, I'm not a big fan of "Deal or No Deal."

Will swallow your soul

29,289 posts

From The Straight Dope:

Cecil wrote:

A friend of mine did suggest another way of thinking about the problem that may help clarify things. Suppose we have the three doors again, one concealing the prize. You pick door #1. Now you're offered this choice: open door #1, or open door #2 and door #3. In the latter case you keep the prize if it's behind either door. You'd rather have a two-in-three shot at the prize than one-in-three, wouldn't you? If you think about it, the original problem offers you basically the same choice. Monty is saying in effect: you can keep your one door or you can have the other two doors, one of which (a non-prize door) I'll open for you. Still don't get it? Then at least have the sense to keep quiet about it.

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

4,900 posts

Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:

Allegory wrote:

It's not equally as likely that you picked the right door the first time. It's not a 50% chance of one being right.

Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.

You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.

As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.

PunkFloyd

Bloodle-Oodle-Oodle

13,007 posts

I take it someone watched *21*.

I think the reasoning was ********* and you now have a 50/50 of winning with either door.

I think the reasoning was ********* and you now have a 50/50 of winning with either door.

Soulless Internet Tiger

35,410 posts

PunkFloyd the Flatulent wrote:

Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.

You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.

As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.

You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.

As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.

Ok, now you're being as dense as Tarv was. If you forget (should I bold that again or would you miss it again?) that there were 3 doors after one is opened, you only have 2 doors left. At this point, you do have a 50/50 shot. Taking the bigger picture, you never do. But, using the snapshot in time, where the 3rd no longer exists, you do have a 50/50 chance.

Donate. One day it could be your family.

*An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.* Victor Hugo

4,900 posts

Uglysasquatch, Mercenary Major wrote:

PunkFloyd the Flatulent wrote:

Even if viewed as a snapshot in time, it's not a 50% chance. Nowhere in this particular example did you ever have a 50% chance of being right.

You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.

As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.

You can only make the claim that you've got a 50% chance if car is randomly behind one of two curtains. The point is that the car is not randomly behind the curtains. There is a 1/3 chance it's behind the curtain you originally picked and a 2/3 chance of being behind the other curtain. This is, by definition, not random so you do not have a 50% chance.

As an analogy, think of flipping a loaded coin.

Ok, now you're being as dense as Tarv was. If you forget (should I bold that again or would you miss it again?) that there were 3 doors after one is opened, you only have 2 doors left. At this point, you do have a 50/50 shot. Taking the bigger picture, you never do. But, using the snapshot in time, where the 3rd no longer exists, you do have a 50/50 chance.

I am not being dense, this is exactly my point. You do *not* have a 50/50 chance. You have a 33.3/66.6 chance.

You only have a 50/50 chance if the car is randomly behind one of the two curtains, but it is not randomly behind one of the curtains. It's twice as likely to be behind the curtain not initially picked.

PunkFloyd

**B***i*__U__~~S~~
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