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Chelona hat over Goetia Petasos +2?Follow

#1 Jul 16 2012 at 7:45 AM Rating: Decent
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Hey everyone, I have been an Alla member for years but barely ever post and figured now would be a good time to boost up the blm threads! Anyway, I recently see a nice new contender for the blm nuke head slot. The Chelona Hat:

[Head] All Races
DEF: 32 MP +40 STR -7 DEX -7 VIT -7 AGI -7 INT +7 MND +7 CHR +7
"Magic Attack Bonus" +5
Enmity -5
Lv. 99 WHM / BLM / RDM / BRD / SMN / BLU / PUP / SCH

There is also a +1 version apparently with +8int and +6 MAB. Question is. Would you use this over Goetia and sacrifice the -12% ele casting time? Or would it depend based off situational usage? I think this hat is attractive in traditional settings but for proccing spells Goetia may be the way to go. What are your thoughts?

-Chu
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#2 Jul 16 2012 at 9:42 AM Rating: Good
I would precast with Goetia, then switch to this midcast.
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#3 Jul 18 2012 at 12:01 PM Rating: Decent
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I wouldn't be willing to give up the goetia set bonus for this unless it was enough to let me one-shot something consistently that I wasn't already one-shotting. And even then, I doubt very much I'd consider using space in my inventory to carry it around.
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#4 Jul 23 2012 at 11:51 AM Rating: Decent
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Isn't the Goetia set bonus activated off of 3 pieces minimum?
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#5 Jul 23 2012 at 12:10 PM Rating: Excellent
It only needs two pieces to activate, and each additional piece will just increase the activation rate further.
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#6 Jul 25 2012 at 12:51 PM Rating: Decent
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Vlorsutes wrote:
It only needs two pieces to activate, and each additional piece will just increase the activation rate further.
Exactly - each piece is important. Eventually I expect that there will be pieces strong enough to justify a mix and match with or replacement of Goetia +2. But this, by itself, doesn't seem to be one of them.
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#7 Jul 25 2012 at 9:06 PM Rating: Decent
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In terms of straight damage, chelona is better. If you are keeping goetia +2 on just for a "chance" of a set proc, you are losing damage potential. Goetia +2 head has its uses still, dont get me wrong, but the consistent damage increase from chelona justifies its use imho.

It's similar to the wise strap scenario from days gone by; using a wise strap for a "chance" at a critical was hindering your consistent damage output.
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#8 Jul 26 2012 at 10:23 AM Rating: Good
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JarrinGoV wrote:
In terms of straight damage, chelona is better. If you are keeping goetia +2 on just for a "chance" of a set proc, you are losing damage potential. Goetia +2 head has its uses still, dont get me wrong, but the consistent damage increase from chelona justifies its use imho.

This would be a much easier argument to make (or to refute) if we knew the actual proc rate of the set bonus, and how it varies with each piece, but we don't. I would happily math this out completely if I had all the information, and I strongly suspect that Goetia would come out ahead - but we're missing some key information.

What we DO know is that the Chelona's over Goetia +2 will give roughly a 3% increase in "normal" damage (depending on a number of factors). The general belief about the Goetia set bonus is that damage bonus is twice the percentage of mp conserved when conserve mp procs. That would put the upper bound of the Goetia set bonus at around 14%, if the bonus always kicked in (based on an approximate 7% mp savings on average). How often it actually procs, and how much that would be reduced by taking away the hat are unknowns to me at this point. But it should be fairly apparent that if even a fraction of this potential 14% is realized, then the damage potential of the Goetia hat is greater than Chelona's.

It is also important to realize that outside of abyssea, it will not always be possible to neglect magic accuracy. In situations where you are not beyond capped m.acc, losing the skill from Goetia will substantially gimp your damage. An 8% drop in land rate from the cap is approximately a 4.5% reduction in damage, and it's even worse if you weren't at the cap to begin with.

JarrinGoV wrote:

It's similar to the wise strap scenario from days gone by; using a wise strap for a "chance" at a critical was hindering your consistent damage output.

The damage potential from Wise was so abysmally low (<0.3% increase, without m.crit dmg augments) that it was worthless. This is absolutely not the case with Goetia. It's not even the same order of magnitude. Likening the set bonus to crappy +m.crit gear is absurd.

Edited, Jul 27th 2012 12:34pm by VxSote
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#9 Jul 27 2012 at 9:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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Goetia +2 set bonus probably doesn't depend on your normal Conserve MP procs. Set bonuses seem to add another kind of job trait that is similar to but not identical to your existing job trait. This has been shown for the WAR set and very clearly for the SMN set (AF3+2 set Blood Boon procs work like Conserve MP instead of Blood Boon) and is likely also the case here (it was probably recycled code). It is also possible (based on the WAR set testing), that the trait procs after and exclusively with Conserve MP.

Keeping this in mind and again looking at the summoner testing, two things are possible:
1) 1% / 2% / 3.5% / 5% growth
2) 2% / 4% / 7% / 10% growth, but procs after Conserve MP for -> 1.5% / 3% / 5.25% / 7.5%
-- Soundwave observed a ~5% proc rate, but he had a ~50% normal Blood Boon proc rate.

The second one seems more in line with what I've observed personally. Still, a 7.5% proc rate on a 28% damage boost is only +2.1% damage. Chelona Hat is >4 MAB ahead of AF3+2 head. even with +100 MAB base, 4 MAB is still approximately the same damage bonus as the entire AF3+2 set's set bonus combined in the most optimal case.

Nares Cap > Chelona Hat +1 > Chelona Hat ~= Hyaline Hat > AF3+2

There might be more options, but those are what I could think of. I've also always found reliability and the ability to somewhat predict what my enmity will be / how much HP the monster will have left after a nuke helpful. I'll admit that I don't like the idea of MCrits and gladly divorce myself from the randomness of the set bonus.

Here are the relevant links:
http://wiki.bluegartr.com/bg/Caller%27s_Attire_Set_Plus_2 (Testing of Blood Boon proc rate/mechanism)
http://wiki.bluegartr.com/bg/Ravager%27s_Armor_Set_%2B2 (Testing of max DA rate)
http://wiki.bluegartr.com/bg/Estoqueur%27s_Armor_Set_%2B2 (The only really clear set bonus potency growth)
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#10 Jul 27 2012 at 9:06 AM Rating: Decent
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Too much math, rate down.
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#11 Jul 27 2012 at 9:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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Thanks for that Byrth, tons of cookies for you!
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#12 Jul 27 2012 at 12:09 PM Rating: Good
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VxSote wrote:
JarrinGoV wrote:
In terms of straight damage, chelona is better. If you are keeping goetia +2 on just for a "chance" of a set proc, you are losing damage potential. Goetia +2 head has its uses still, dont get me wrong, but the consistent damage increase from chelona justifies its use imho.

This would be a much easier argument to make (or to refute) if we knew the actual proc rate of the set bonus, and how it varies with each piece, but we don't. I would happily math this out completely if I had all the information, and I strongly suspect that Goetia would come out ahead - but we're missing some key information.

What we DO know is that the Chelona's over Goetia +2 will give roughly a 3% increase in "normal" damage (depending on a number of factors). The general belief about the Goetia set bonus is that damage bonus is twice the percentage of mp conserved when conserve mp procs. That would put the upper bound of the Goetia set bonus at around 14%, if the bonus always kicked in (based on an approximate 7% mp savings on average). How often it actually procs, and how much that would be reduced by taking away the hat are unknowns to me at this point. But it should be fairly apparent that if even a fraction of this potential 14% is realized, then the damage potential of the Goetia hat is greater than Chelona's.

How about doing it this way: assuming that Chelona's gives a 3% increase in damage over Goetia +2 hat and the set bonus gives a 14% bonus, calculate the rate at which the set bonus would have to activate to give the same average damage as Chelona's.

Let D = expected damage while wearing Goetia +2 hat.
Let X = rate at which set bonus activates without Goetia +2 hat (X is less than 1.0)
Let Y = increased rate at which set bonus activates with Goetia +2 hat (Y is less than 1.0)
X + Y <= 1.0

The two pieces would have the same average damage over time when:
D * 1.14 * (X + Y) + D * (1 - X - Y) = D * 1.03 * 1.14 * X + D * 1.03 * (1 - X)
1.14 DX + 1.14 DY + D - DX - DY = (1.03 * 1.14) DX + 1.03 D - 1.03 DX
1.14 DY - DY = (1.03 * 1.14) DX + 1.03 D - 1.03 DX - 1.14 DX - D + DX
(1.14 - 1) DY = (1.03 * 1.14 - 1.03 - 1.14 + 1) DX + (1.03 - 1) D
0.14 DY = (1.03 * 1.14 - 1.17) DX + 0.03 D
0.14 Y = (1.03 * 1.14 - 1.17) X + 0.03
Y = [(1.03 * 1.14 - 1.17) X + 0.03] / 0.14
Y = (0.0042 X + 0.03) / 0.14
Y = 0.03 X + 0.03 / 0.14 = 0.03 X + 0.2143 (approx)

Since the Goetia +2 hat set bonus is represented by the left side of the equation, Goetia +2 will win out when Y is greater than 0.03X + 0.2143.

One trivial conclusion that this equation gives:
- If X is 0 and Y is 0 (Goetia +2 is the only piece and the set, thus not providing any set bonus activation), Y is less than .2143, thus Chelona's wins.

The conclusion that I found surprising is that if the Goetia +2 hat is one of only two pieces of the +2 set, that would make X = 0, and Y would have to be at least 21.43% for the set bonus to win out. Given Byrthnoth's post on the suspected activation rate at this point, it seems highly unlikely for the addition of the Goetia +2 hat to increase the activation rate of the set bonus sufficiently to beat out the consistent damage increase of Chelona's, if average damage over time is the primary goal.

Granted, this ignores the increased damage that the Goetia +2 hat can give by shortening casting time (and thus letting you cast your best nukes more often). But needing the set bonus to proc an additional 21.43% of the time from equipping just one more piece of the set seems like rather large disparity to overcome. Other than the assumptions I had based these calculations on (3% increased damage for Chelona's, 14% extra damage from set bonus), can anyone see any errors in my calculations above?

Edit: needed to add "hat" to distinguish between when I was talking specifically about the +2 hat vs +2 set in general in a couple of spots.

Edited, Jul 27th 2012 2:19pm by svlyons
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#13 Jul 27 2012 at 7:10 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
The damage potential from Wise was so abysmally low (<0.3% increase, without m.crit dmg augments) that it was worthless. This is absolutely not the case with Goetia. It's not even the same order of magnitude. Likening the set bonus to crappy +m.crit gear is absurd.


Let me clarify, I wasn't trying to compare the entire set bonus to the wise strap, I currently still use 4 pieces of goetia to nuke in (minus the head piece normally). The damage increase during each spell from chelona hat justifies using it over goetia imho. I am averaging a 35-80 damage increase per spell with chelona over goetia petasos +2 (~35 with tier 3 and ~80 with -ja's).

I'm not one to go into the "math" like other people do, and if I'm wrong I will gladly admit that I am wrong. It just seems like common sense though that a 35-80 consistent damage increase more than justifies its use. If I need to use goetia +2 head for the skill and/or casting time reduction, I most certainly will use it. Heck, goetia +2 is part of my permanent blm inventory.

For me though, I had no issue sacrificing 1 piece of goetia for the damage increase I have gained. 4 goetia pieces and chelona hat seems to work just fine for the things I do (90% of the time, you know what I mean). This is what works for me.



Edited, Jul 27th 2012 9:40pm by JarrinGoV
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#14 Jul 29 2012 at 3:04 AM Rating: Excellent
svlyons wrote:


Granted, this ignores the increased damage that the Goetia +2 hat can give by shortening casting time (and thus letting you cast your best nukes more often). But needing the set bonus to proc an additional 21.43% of the time from equipping just one more piece of the set seems like rather large disparity to overcome. Other than the assumptions I had based these calculations on (3% increased damage for Chelona's, 14% extra damage from set bonus), can anyone see any errors in my calculations above?


You can equip the Goetia Petasos +2 before you start to cast, then swap to a different head such as the Chelona +1 or Nares Cap once the casting begins to get both the -12% casting time and the actual damage boost from the superior head for the actual nukes. As a result, the shorter casting time is a non-issue in the matter.
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#15 Jul 31 2012 at 9:48 AM Rating: Good
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I did some testing way back when I first completed my set. I was getting between 13-19% activation per conserve mp (average 16%). I also seemed to have a 30-35% activation on my conserve mp w/o any conserve mp gear on. Could be the set boosts conserve mp rate as well or that blackmage got a higher lv of the trait. Still brings the total average to around 5% overall. I only did around 1500 casts so not exactly hard enough data.
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#16 Jul 31 2012 at 2:51 PM Rating: Good
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BLM did not get a higher level of the trait:

http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/103597-Temporary-Random-Facts-Thread?p=4625751&viewfull=1#post4625751

I never did get around to testing the BLM set bonus that way.
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#17 Aug 01 2012 at 5:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Byrthnoth wrote:
BLM did not get a higher level of the trait:

http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/103597-Temporary-Random-Facts-Thread?p=4625751&viewfull=1#post4625751

I never did get around to testing the BLM set bonus that way.


Interesting, I had not seen your testing previously. When I tested way back when, I recorded mp before and after every cast, so I had a definitive measure of whether conserve had activated or not. Back then, there was some question over whether the conserve amounts were uniformly distributed. Given that assumption (which seemed like a reasonable conclusion following the earlier testing), your methodology seems reasonable at first glance. I think perhaps your confidence intervals need to be larger due to the fact that you're essentially doing a distribution of a distribution, but I'm not completely sure about that.

In any case, I've been considering a test of the set bonus so I can make a more proper analysis here, and one of the problems is that measuring conserve procs directly (or indirectly) from MP is complicated by the refresh on the empy body. But since you've shown that it is possible to hit 100% conserve, it should be a little easier. The main concern that I see now will be making sure that m.crits are recognized so they don't skew the results.
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#18 Aug 02 2012 at 1:26 PM Rating: Good
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You could also use some combination of gear like Rune Chopper and Oneiros Grip to counteract the effects of the Coat and even you out to 0MP/tick if you wanted.

When you say that being able to hit 100% Conserve MP makes it easier, are you talking about something like Testing crit rate? I guess we'd expect to see either a 0% proc rate (Set is a separate process that procs second), a pretty normal proc rate (Set is a separate process that procs first), or a higher proc rate (Set isn't a separate process)?
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