doctorugh wrote:
This too is a curious post. It makes me think that you think that weaponskills work like Barrage.
To emphasize this point, I'll make a comparison using your analysis.
You say if 2 WS have the same damage output, you would be incline to choose one with less hits.
Lets say we have a 1 hit WS with a 95% acc that does 1000 damage per hit (950 avg)
Then we have a 1000 hit WS with one damage each at 95% acc (950 avg)
There is no difference.
Your post got me to thinking, so I did some math to check:
Let's assume we have a 5 and 6-hit WS of the same damage total, both at capped accuracy. Let the damage total be called 30x, since 30 is divisible by both, it'll make the calculations easier. I'll simplify the equation a bit by having each hit of a WS do the same damage (in other words, not accounting for fTP), let it be 6x in the 5-hit WS, and 5x in the 6-hit WS. I'll compute the expected value of each.
Odds on 6-hit WS:
0 hit: 1.58 x 10^-8
1 hit: (2.97 x 10^-7) x 6C1 = 1.78 x 10^-6
2 hit: (5.64 x 10^-6) x 6C2 = 8.46 x 10^-5
3 hit: (1.07 x 10^-4) x 6C3 = .0021
4 hit: (.0020) x 6C4 = .031
5 hit: (.0386) x 6C5 = .232
6 hit: .735
Expected Value of 6-hit WS:
5x(1.78 x 10^-6) + 10x(8.46 x 10^-5) + 15x(.0021) + 20x(.031) + 25x(.232) + 30x(.735) = 28.502x out of a maximum 30x
Odds on 5-hit WS:
0 hit: 3.12 x 10^-7
1 hit: (5.94 x 10^-6) x 5C1 = 2.97 x 10^-5
2 hit: (1.13 x 10^-4) x 5C2 = 1.13 x 10^-3
3 hit: (.0021) x 5C3 = .021
4 hit: (.0407) x 5C4 = .204
5 hit: .774
Expected Value of 5-hit WS:
6x(2.97 x 10^-5) + 12x(1.13 x 10^-3) + 18x(.021) + 24x(.204) + 30x(.774) = 28.508x out of a maximum 30x
I'm sure the difference is due to rounding at some point in the calculations, so I see that my earlier statement was indeed wrong, that over time, it doesn't matter if you're more likely to connect with all hits due to less swings, because the damage over a long interval will be the same.
I'm sorry if that was readily apparent to everyone else, I guess I just saw getting a max return more often as a plus, not accounting for the greater loss when misses do occur.
All that aside, really that was just a minor - and apparently incorrect - point in my post. The best reason I prefer Pyrrhic Kleos is because of the evasion down effect.
tl;dr - doctorugh is right, there is no difference.
Edit: I did more thinking and realized this isn't the full picture. The above is only true in the case of capped accuracy.
If accuracy is < 95% on a WS, then less hits in a WS will be beneficial:
Say you're accuracy is 85%. Then your first hit will have 95% accuracy, and all the rest will have 85% accuracy. The less the amount of hits, the greater the proportion of 95% accurate hits as compared to 85% accurate hits.
This can be seen in the case of a 1-hit versus a 2-hit most clearly.
With a 1-hit WS, the WS accuracy would be 95%, and 95% of hits would land.
With a 2-hit WS, the accuracy for the two hits would be 95% and 85%, resulting in 90% of hits landing.
So, in the case of <95% accuracy, the 1-hit WS will have proportionally less misses. The benefit to less hits will become greater as accuracy gets lower. This can be extended to 5 and 6-hit WS as well, where it's not as large a difference, but there is a difference.
Edited, Sep 7th 2010 10:59pm by apresmoi