Why the -PDT on amano samsFollow

No I didn't. My math still assumes they are separate (hence the 0.815 chance for each one). I simply showed that the probability of 4 consecutive non-evades at an 18.5% evasion rate is less than 50%. Calculate the probability of flipping a coin and getting 4 heads in a row. The calculation method is identical. This isn't that hard...

It's not "skewed" in any one direction, say you have a true 2% chance at doing hypothetical action X, and your sample size is 6. You have a 11.4% chance of actually doing X at least once out of those 6, and if you were stupid enough to treat "6" as a reasonable sample you would think your odds of X were >16.6%. On the other hand you might fail X all six times and think your odds of X are 0%. If you add up all the estimations and likelyhoods of the circumstances that caused said circumstance, you get 2%.


But all of that is completely irrelevant given your sample size isn't "6" it's "every swing any mob ever takes at you in said build", and the true chance doesn't change, it's 2%. It's set at 2%. It's always 2%. Higher sample sizes increase the accuracy of the estimation of the true value (higher estimation is not more likely than lower estimation or vise versa either there is no "skew"), they don't change the true value at all. If you get lucky and have X occur 10,000 times in a row or unlucky and none at all, if the true value is 2% your odds of X happening on the next occasion are still 2%.

2% is 2%.

It's how math works.

tl;dr:
No
No
No

On avg in the situation we've been discussing the guaranteed -dmg% doesn't result in lower overall dmg though. It's like the idiots who think acc is somehow magically all important for multihit WS:
acc*dmg + acc*dmg + acc*dmg + acc*dmg= 4*acc*dmg
If you can raise dmg to a higher relative gain than acc you should do so. In this case if you can lower average %dmg taken via eva more than you can with -PDT you should do so. It may be more erratic, but the numbers will work out for you in the end.

Edited, Mar 5th 2010 12:26am by shintasama

I see your point and I disagree with it... I DON'T have unlimited HP. Mages DO pretty much have unlimited MP in any situation where I'll regularly pull hate. I would rather get hit a little more often for a LOT less than risk getting 1 shotted by pecking flurry cuz I'm caught w/ my pants *read Third Eye* down.

You're still missing my point. Evasion has a floor. You're BARELY breaking it, if you're breaking it at all. Once again. It takes a bit of gear for a THF to break the evasion floor on VT stuff. THF naturally has almost the same evasion that SAM can EVER acquire. What makes you think you're going to break the floor as a SAM in these situations?

I still don't see how what I'm saying isn't clicking here. We have already established that in "Oh S*it" situations, a 1-5 hit volley is about what we should be looking at. It has also been admitted on both sides that a small sample size such as this can err in terms of actual evaded hits. I fail to see how having a guaranteed 30-50% (gear dependant) damage reduction is not a higher gain than even a 25% evasion chance, which I think is seriously pushing the limits of what could be possible on SAM in situations where "Oh S*it" gear is going to be used.
As for it "averaging out over time/career", that's all good, I'm glad math works. But it doesn't help your present situation when your "bad sample" (i.e, your 20% evasion gets you hit 4/4) of hits includes a 500+ critical that could have been a 250ish.

Following your line of reasoning to an extreme: Say you have to choose between a 1% -PDT set or an 80% evasion set. Say you are going to take 3 potential hits. Well there is a 0.8% chance you get hit on all three of those hits, that would be the "bad sample". Thus in the "bad sample" you should've worn the 1% -PDT, huh? That 80% evasion, by your reasoning, is not doing you as much good as the 1% -PDT, since in the bad sample, you would take more damage with the evasion set than with the -PDT one.

That line of reasoning is obviously tremendously flawed. It requires you to define an evasion rate and -PDT% where you would choose one over the other. Go ahead and define that line for us, it should be fun to watch you try.

Edited, Mar 5th 2010 5:02pm by JaxReborn

Um, wtf?
Actually, you must have completely missed what I was saying. If you can evade 80% of the time, why the **** would you worry about -1% damage? This makes no sense, and is in no way what I was saying. I specifically stated that -30-50% PDT was better than 25% evasion. You can't take that and plug in random numbers and still believe that I think it's the same thing. You are throwing around nonsense numbers and calling my reasoning flawed....

Again, this has no bearing on my response, as I would not, and cannot take those numbers to that extreme(SAM doesn't have an 80% EVA set.....). A higher EVA rate would eventually win over 30-50% damage reduction, but I don't think anyone is sporting that level on SAM(which I believe was the point Bang was trying to make).

You know, I hate to sound cliche', but "Sh*t's situational". Is your EVA skill capped? What gear do you have access to? What are you fighting? You can't write a blanket statement to cover this, like most of the stuff you try to min/max.

Don't "follow" me where I never intended to go.

Again, putting words in my mouth here. Try to keep up. This isn't straight EVA vs. PDT. It's knowing when gambling on 20-25% evasion(still don't think SAM is gonna beat the floor by too much) is better/worse than PDT.

Just parsed my eva setup on EM decrepit gnole, no food was use, wpn tomoe, no ws was used, seigan/eye only once.

Stats that matter: eva skill 278
parry skill 240
eva +32
pdt -7

hit/miss
308/665

evasion 66.57%
parry 3.59% doh
counter 0.32 -.-

First thing noted was such a low parry rate, only 12 during all fight, probably due the high eva rate and still a low skill.

While 66% might not look huge i notice that plenilune embrace gives a huge acc boost as well besides att boost, i usually evade up to 10 hits in a row but after that move is used is usually 3-5 guaranteed hits.

Before he started using it i was @ 80% eva rate.

I'm going to test on other mobs too.

Edit: Aura statue VT, taco used, seigan/eye fulltime, desperate flourish used, 1 yukki and 1 kasha at start, wpn soboro.

Hit/miss
46/50

evasion 34.26%
parry 1.41% -.-

The rest of the hits were anticipated but cant find them on parser.

Edited, Mar 9th 2010 12:50am by Jajuzza

I never said you should equip Earth staff every time you pull hate (hence the optional comment), but you should carry one and be prepared to use it if the situation calls for it.

THF gets 48 evasion from traits alone. There are many things that NINs cannot evade that THFs can with relative ease.

Shinta. Kirin hits like a truck, yes. But with -50% PDT, he's reduced to hitting like a compact sedan. This is my point about "Sometimes the goal isn't to reduce the total damage taken over the span of your whole FFXI career." Sometimes, it's simply more important to ensure you survive from third eye to third eye. If someone is taking half damage a little more often *and seriously... if you think you're going to break the evasion floor on kirin... lolz* the healers will have an easier time keeping him alive than someone who takes full damage a little more often *once again.. kirin's acc vs. your eva....*

For that matter, on the VT aura statue, with a 34% evasion rate, you can improve your evasion by at most 46%. Now let's pretend that Shinta's absolutely correct in his prior statement of "+Evasion % = -PDT %". With this, that would mean that you have the ability to add 50% or 46%. In that same example, after hitting the -PDT cap, there will be slots left open for evasion gear. If we take away the +eva, we are left with a ~18% evasion rate. Add -50% PDT and then +27 eva/skill from torque, mantle, and 2 earrings, and you'll have ~31% evasion with capped -PDT on the same mob.

BTW, your actual parrying rate was around 11%. The parser you used was calculating it based on total number of attacks vs. those that were parried. It should technically calculate it on the total number of attacks that weren't evaded vs. those that were parried.

Outside of all of that... I had a small epiphany. Can SAM even reach + 100 eva/skill? Assuming skill increases evasion in a 1:1 ratio, which most people believe it doesn't, that means that SAM can't even acquire +50% evasion through gear. SAM CAN, however acquire -50% PDT and still have room for some evasion left over.

A compact sedan going 40mph still kills you, for Kirin level enemies PDT isn't going to do much either, your best option is to not be an idiot. Besides, I've said the entire time that I'm not talking about lv 88+ mobs, all CoP/WotG/TAU mobs are significantly lower level and much easier to dodge.
Have you even read anything I've posted? @#%^ing unbelievable.
*this* particularly when the amount of damage reduction you can get in certain slots via eva is double or more what you're getting from -PDT.

Edited, Mar 14th 2010 9:47pm by shintasama

<Samurai> Anticipates the attack.

Oh hai, I still had some third eye left because I evaded the melee swing before it.

Uhhh... Kirin never do physical attacks (or you can call he has no physical attacks at all), as far as my brain can recall. He just have unlimited TP that he'd spam whenever he doesn't feel like casting magic.

either you interpreted the results of whatever study you read this in incorrectly, or who ever posted this theory is just flat out wrong. AGI most definately has an affect on evasion. i'm wondering what general consensus you have been consulting.

please do.

Edited, Mar 15th 2010 10:34pm by Buront

Wow, just wow.


Fist of all, you dont equip an earth staff every time you take hate. you use it situationally, like if third eye has one anticipate and leaves you without cover for 25 seconds vs a hnm. I've said this several times, but you seem to have ignored it each time.

And secondly, if you're suggesting that your acc might go up with an evasion set, then your TP set or food choice is horribly, horribly wrong.


I evasion tank a lot on NIN when duoing apollyn and other lowman things. my SAM can equip the same equipment, but it's missing 4 vital things.
1) 13 evasion skill.
2) Yonin (which is an additional 30 evasion)
3) A reliable source of blind (which is effectively another ~30 evasion)
4) A reliable source of damage avoidance. Utsusemi is much more reliable than seigan for damage avoidance.

My nin rolls with about +90 evasion (before blind) and +17 skill.

Samurai can't even get close to that.

No, it's not. Not only does SAM have higher base acc decreasing the improvement of further acc, we have Zanshin which decreases the relative worth of acc to ~half of what NIN gets. Additionally it's easier for us to build a high haste gear set and we get JA haste which makes haste much more valuable.

*(91%acc/90%acc= 1.111% improvement, w/ Zanshin= 94.85% corrected acc/94.28% corrected acc = 0.607% improvement, 0.607/1.111= 54.6%)

The 24 levels 75->99 gives NIN ~7.9 more evasion skill, however, you're still missing the point. The goal behind making a "oh sh*t"/tanking set is to minimalize the damage you take, the higher we get and the more gear is available the easier it is to make a functioning evasion set for any job making eva. The higher our relative eva is the better adding more evasion is.
A -50%PDT set on SAM isn't worth having unless all you're doing is 88+ mobs and you suck at managing your hate. Especially for solo/duo/lowman stuff it gimps your damage way too much, while many +eva options allow you to keep a reasonable output while still minimalizing dmg taken.
The cast time on Utsu:Ni is 45 seconds pre haste, so technically no (it's actually ~5.67). Don't you know your own job?
YGK debuffs land almost every time (probably 95%, I don't really care to test it), the resist rate is extremely low.
Do you just have a reading problem?
Mob tp is a joke.
Soboro is freaking awesome vs anything of reasonable level, and I just have to out damage NIN which is pretty weak, and a NIN in full -PDT is even weaker.
1) I quite obviously meant the -PDT/eva/parry gear set I listed in this thread, which you obviously haven't read and continue to not read, making you look like an idiot when you comeback with things I've already addressed
2) I haven't updated my sig since I made it ~2-3 years ago
3) You're a dumbass for not realizing how powerful Soboro actually is
I'm trying to ignore you all together, you're not intelligent enough to be worth talking to. Konda is getting to that point pretty fast too.

Edited, Mar 17th 2010 12:29pm by shintasama

This thread got a wierd turn indeed.

And please, for god sake stop the crap with earth staff as part of pdt set.
I really dont see why a sam should equip that midfight, unless maybe a sarameya sam tank.

Hq pdt set cost almost 2mil my server, is quite a bit when most sams dont even have decent tp/ws sets. 22 pdt is more realistic and cheap for everyone so please...50% is far from 22.