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Why the -PDT on amano samsFollow

#27 Feb 17 2010 at 1:27 AM Rating: Good
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It's entirely possible for a SAM to have 278 EVA skill. Merits and a Boxer's Mantle are almost enough right there. He didn't say that he had as much skill naked as a THF; he said he had as much skill as a naked THF.

And, once you're over the evasion floor (which a SAM can achieve against EXP-level mobs, because of the high base skill), then that evasion is directly lowering the mob's chance to hit you, which is a perfectly useful thing for "oh ****" gear to do. A SAM that neglects evasion in his "oh ****" set is neglecting an avenue for damage reduction. -PDT is also very effective as well, but that doesn't mean that evasion is pointless, and there aren't many slots when -PDT and evasion meaningfully compete anyway, so there's no reason not to have both in your set.


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Since when did I SAY 278 EVA skill on SAM is stupid? Oh wait, maybe YOU should learn to read. I pointed out you DON'T have the same EVA of a THF, I didn't call EVA set-up on SAM stupid.
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I didn't call EVA set-up on SAM stupid.
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I didn't call EVA set-up on SAM stupid.
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I didn't call EVA set-up on SAM stupid.
Hopefully the third time is the charm.

I pointed out he doesn't have the same EVA as a THF, and comparing naked to geared/meritted jobs is non-sense. A fully geared, meritted and fed SAM can get more Acc with a polearm than a naked, hungry DRG. And that matters why? It doesn't.
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#28 Feb 17 2010 at 5:24 PM Rating: Default
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Caesura wrote:
-PDT is also very effective as well, but that doesn't mean that evasion is pointless, and there aren't many slots when -PDT and evasion meaningfully compete anyway, so there's no reason not to have both in your set.


The only slots that I would use for evasion in my defensive set are Neck, earrings, back, and waist. Squeeze what you will into those slots, but the rest are reserved for physical reduction. On that note, you're going to have a small amount of eva from those. Not even enough to bridge the gap between SAM and naked THF. Naked THF on IT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on VT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on T mobs gets hit regularly. Naked THF on EM mobs gets hit occasionally. Of course, I personally would rather throw haste into my ear and waist slots on defensive anyway. I would use boxer's mantle, because it's nearly unmatched for defensive build. Neck would probably be parrying torque IMO, *playing off my job's strengths*. The other earring would be a toss-up between parrying earring and elusive.
#29 Feb 17 2010 at 7:00 PM Rating: Good
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On that note, you're going to have a small amount of eva from those. Not even enough to bridge the gap between SAM and naked THF. Naked THF on IT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on VT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on T mobs gets hit regularly.
So? "Often" "regularly" are completely meaningless. Comparing to a naked THF is completely meaningless. For example, the best -dmg% we can get in hands slot is -2% physical, if you can put something there that raises SAM's evasion more than 2% it's better, period.
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Neck would probably be parrying torque IMO, *playing off my job's strengths*. The other earring would be a toss-up between parrying earring and elusive.
Parry has a really low cap, it's almost always better to go eva unless you're trying to skill up parry.
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#30 Feb 18 2010 at 3:55 AM Rating: Decent
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tl;dr

I'm a SAM with capped evasion, no evasion merits and I'm fighting a T mob. I'm getting wailed at, third eye is down and I'm at orange HP, what do I do?

head - O.hat or Arhats?
neck - Evasion torque, is there anything else?
body - Osode, SH, or Arhats?
hands - Rasetsu or -2% PDT hands?
waist - can't think of one
ears - 2x dodge earrings?
rings - jelly and patronus, are there any evasion rings?
legs - gavial? don't know of any good eva legs
feet - AF1 (eva skill +5) or Askar boots?
back - Boxer's no doubt.
#31 Feb 18 2010 at 10:01 AM Rating: Default
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shintasama wrote:
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On that note, you're going to have a small amount of eva from those. Not even enough to bridge the gap between SAM and naked THF. Naked THF on IT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on VT mobs gets hit often. Naked THF on T mobs gets hit regularly.
So? "Often" "regularly" are completely meaningless. Comparing to a naked THF is completely meaningless. For example, the best -dmg% we can get in hands slot is -2% physical, if you can put something there that raises SAM's evasion more than 2% it's better, period.
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Neck would probably be parrying torque IMO, *playing off my job's strengths*. The other earring would be a toss-up between parrying earring and elusive.
Parry has a really low cap, it's almost always better to go eva unless you're trying to skill up parry.


Often means just barely above floor. Regularly means a little less than that. Comparing to a naked THF is NOT completely meaningless, because SAM can't reach values much higher. A SAM fully geared is akin to a naked THF on the evasion front. Anything above EXP, your evasion is going to be floored. It takes a sizeable amount of EVA gear to raise JUST beat the floor. You would have to sacrifice the best parts of your -PDT set to do that. Thus you won't find a hands piece that will raise your evasion more than 2% without sacrificing much more effective -PDT.

Also, with -PDT being a cumulative % decrease in damage taken, much like haste is to delay, as you increase your -PDT, further increases become more potent until you reach the cap. That's to say, if you have -48% PDT already before you get the hands piece, that -2% PDT is actually going to be more than a 2% reduction in damage taken.

You can absolutely break the floor on evasion for a lot of stuff as SAM, but doing so isn't as worthwhile as -PDT gear.

*edit* you seemed to misunderstand my whole "playing off my job's strengths" comment. See, parrying skill doesn't have a convenient trait to enhance it. 269 is the max before merits. However, there's just as much parrying gear available to SAM in the same slots that I would warrant putting evasion gear. With the exception of a subjob that offers evasion bonus, you'd see better results from parrying gear w/ capped parrying *especially if merited* than evasion gear while going full -PDT. You won't be hitting the parrying cap regardless.

Edited, Feb 18th 2010 10:05am by Banggugyangu
#32 Feb 18 2010 at 10:11 AM Rating: Decent
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head - Arhats+1
neck - Evasion torque
body - Arhats+1
hands - usukane
waist - scouter's/survival
ears - 2x dodge earrings
rings - jelly+patronus (are there any evasion rings= yes, and agi, but not as good)
legs - hydra
feet - Hachiryu > Askar boots
back - Boxer's

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Often means just barely above floor. Regularly means a little less than that.
In that case, what you said is just pure lies unless your definitions of "barely" and "a little less" are pretty liberal (I want to point out, since you didn't actually increase the quantitativity of your numbers at all this is also completely meaningless), you're just pulling bullsh*t out of your ***. SAM's evasion wearing -eva isn't floored vs VT+/IT, you said yourself there are several pieces of +eva you'd be wearing anyway, in a defensive set +eva will be working for you on pretty much anything reasonable.

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Also, with -PDT being a cumulative % decrease in damage taken, much like haste is to delay, as you increase your -PDT, further increases become more potent until you reach the cap. That's to say, if you have -48% PDT already before you get the hands piece, that -2% PDT is actually going to be more than a 2% reduction in damage taken.
/facepalm

dumbass


100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction = 100 * 5 = 500 dmg taken

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However, there's just as much parrying gear available to SAM in the same slots that I would warrant putting evasion gear.
There is much more +eva gear available, and it's more effective.

Edited, Feb 18th 2010 11:33am by shintasama
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#33 Feb 18 2010 at 11:52 AM Rating: Good
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*editted*
Nvm, its too early, im going to bed -_-

Edited, Feb 18th 2010 6:08pm by hitoseijuro
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#34 Feb 18 2010 at 2:04 PM Rating: Decent
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shintasama wrote:
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction = 100 * 5 = 500 dmg taken


So, I'll use an example then.

It's safe to assume that a greater colibri has approximately the same accuracy as it has evasion. For this example's sake, I'll low-ball its accuracy at 320.

SAM's evasion is 256 naturally. This is a 64 point difference. 80% accuracy for the colibri toward a player would occur at 310 evasion. This means the player evades 20% of the time. Every point of accuracy in the colibri's favor will result in -.5% evasion against the player. 54/2 = 27% accuracy. That means that you are 17% beyond the floor. It would take 34 evasion just to REACH the floor on greater colibri if their accuracy is indeed only 320. What you just stated is 48 evasion. This means you would be evading 7% above the floor, or a total of 12%. *that was including hachiryu feet*

BTW....

100 damage * -48% damage = 52 damage
100 damage * -50% damage = 50 damage
50/52 = ~-3.85% damage reduction over the former.

sacrificing usu hands for -PDT:

Let's imagine that you're sitting at 50% evasion rate *it's not happening...*

100 hits @ 100 damage * -48% damage @ 55% eva = 2340 damage
100 hits @ 100 damage * -50% damage @ 50% eva = 2500 damage
100 hits @ 100 damage * -48% damage @ 12% eva = 4576 damage\
100 hits @ 100 damage * -50% damage @ 7% eva = 4650 damage / more realistic

That's a total of 74 damage difference over 100 attacks in favor of 10 eva as opposed to -2% PDT. If 74 damage spread across 100 attacks is enough to best you as a SAM, then I fold... Being taru, myself, I would MUCH rather take my chances with getting hit 5% more often than taking extra damage when I DO get hit. I've been 1-shotted enough times by crit or multi-hit WSs to think otherwise. Also... lol @ thinking 5 eva is better than -2% PDT. See above for the reason why *as you approach the cap, newly added values account for a bigger bonus*.

*edit*

shintasama wrote:
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction = 100 * 5 = 500 dmg taken

quoted again... because I just thought of this....

Remember that thing called a "floor"? Your example would be better expressed:

100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction * 95% acc = 95 hits * 5 = 475 dmg taken

ftfy

Edited, Feb 18th 2010 2:07pm by Banggugyangu
#35 Feb 19 2010 at 1:41 PM Rating: Decent
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Yea but who have -50 pdt?

Let's keep it on Nq gear, arhat head -4, arhat body -6 but osode isnt better? 14 more base def plus vit and agi. Ring combo another -7, feet/legs combo another -5, that's 22 assuming you use arhat over osode, where you get the other -28? even with the Hq you're not getting closer.

In my case, i have jelly/patronus, switching the remaining to eva/parry i get 22 eva, 10 parry skill, 5 eva skill in exchange of -15 pdt, so wich is better now?
#36 Feb 19 2010 at 2:25 PM Rating: Good
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Nitpick: Evasion Skill doess't exactly work on a 1 to 1 basis. The general consensus on just about every THF forum is that over 200 skill 1 evasion skill is equivalent to .9 evasion.
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#37 Feb 19 2010 at 3:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
I pointed out he doesn't have the same EVA as a THF

And I noted that he never said he did. He simply said that he had as much EVA skill as naked THF.
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I have same eva skill thf have

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No, you don't.

He said, "I can get enough evasion skill for it to make a difference, as much as a naked THF, even." You said, "You don't have the same EVA as a THF." Do you not see the non sequitur in your response?
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A fully geared, meritted and fed SAM can get more Acc with a polearm than a naked, hungry DRG. And that matters why? It doesn't.

It matters is a naked, hungry DRG could hit the targets that you are trying to hit with your "fully-geared, meritted and fed SAM." His point was just that he could get evasion fairly high, high enough to make it useful.
#38 Feb 19 2010 at 4:31 PM Rating: Good
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wrote this two days ago, then ADD'd and forgot to post:


Quote:
It's safe to assume that a greater colibri has approximately the same accuracy as it has evasion.
no, it's not.
Quote:
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction * 95% acc = 95 hits * 5 = 475 dmg taken

ftfy
no, you didn't

What you did, was show that you're too stupid to realize that -eva% and -dmg% work exactly at exactly the same rate gain.
ex:
Quote:
100 damage * -48% evaded = 52 damage
100 damage * -50% evaded = 50 damage
50/52 = ~-3.85% damage reduction over the former.


or comparing apples to apples instead of apples to *********

100 hits * 10 dmg * 80% acc * 78% taken = 624 dmg taken
vs.
100 hits * 10 dmg * 78% acc * 80% taken = 624 dmg taken


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Let's imagine that you're sitting at 50% evasion rate *it's not happening...*
You're not sitting @40%+ -dmg% either you dumb ****!
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Also... lol @ thinking 5 eva is better than -2% PDT. See above for the reason why *as you approach the cap, newly added values account for a bigger bonus*.
I'm going to assume that's 5% since usu is +10eva. You're not taking into account the +counter/SB either, or the added killpower, but I'm going to ignore it since I don't need either to prove you're an idiot. -PDT does get "better" as you get more of it (just like eva/haste/etc do), but unlike haste/eva/etc you can't get the level of it needed to be really appreciable. 29% -> 31% -PDT is 71% dmg taken vs 69% dmg taken is a (71/69=) 1.0289x difference in dmg. 0% eva (ignoring cap) -> 5% eva is a (100/95=) 1.0526x difference in dmg. Just taking into account evasion usu is always better as long as you're getting the full value. If you're fighting something soo strong that you don't get full value, you're still better off as long as you're getting ~6eva's worth (once again, not including the +counter/SB even).
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That's a total of 74 damage difference over 100 attacks in favor of 10 eva as opposed to -2% PDT. If 74 damage spread across 100 attacks is enough to best you as a SAM, then I fold...
"enough to best me"? You obviously don't understand how chance works. The goal of a defensive set is to reduce the avg damage you take as much as possible.
Usukane hands do it better.
End of story.
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Being taru, myself, I would MUCH rather take my chances with getting hit 5% more often than taking extra damage when I DO get hit. I've been 1-shotted enough times by crit or multi-hit WSs to think otherwise.
dumbass ~_~;

Think about it the other way, you could get hit by a crit/multihit WS with -PDT and still die because it doesn't reduce the dmg enough, while you would at least had a chance to avoid getting killed with +eva. You're also completely ignoring the rest of your hp lost up to that possible point of kill shot. Go learn how averages work.



-sigh- morons



Quote:
Nitpick: Evasion Skill doess't exactly work on a 1 to 1 basis. The general consensus on just about every THF forum is that over 200 skill 1 evasion skill is equivalent to .9 evasion.
We're comparing -PDT to straight evasion in all contested slots I think. Did they ever confirm AGI's effect?
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#39 Feb 20 2010 at 1:06 AM Rating: Decent
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shintasama wrote:
Quote:
It's safe to assume that a greater colibri has approximately the same accuracy as it has evasion.
no, it's not.

Tell me... why is it not safe to assume that a colibri's accuracy would not be a similar number to its evasion? The only listed jobs for colibri family are Red Mage, White Mage, and Black Mage. None of these jobs have ANY offensive combat skills that are lower than their evasion skill. This means that if the mob's DEX is anywhere NEAR its AGI, then the accuracy should be a similar number.

Quote:

Quote:
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% acc = 50 hits * 10 = 500 dmg taken
100 hits * 10 dmg * 50% dmg reduction * 95% acc = 95 hits * 5 = 475 dmg taken

ftfy
no, you didn't
I love how you live in a magical world where people can have an evasion rate that ignores the floor completely....
Quote:

What you did, was show that you're too stupid to realize that -eva% and -dmg% work exactly at exactly the same rate gain.
No... What I did was show a more accurate representation as per the evasion floor that is hard-coded into the game. Your foolish example ignored it. Mine did not.

Quote:

Quote:
100 damage * -48% evaded = 52 damage
100 damage * -50% evaded = 50 damage
50/52 = ~-3.85% damage reduction over the former.


or comparing apples to apples instead of apples to bullsh*t:

100 hits * 10 dmg * 80% acc * 78% taken = 624 dmg taken
vs.
100 hits * 10 dmg * 78% acc * 80% taken = 624 dmg taken

You know how haste has an increased rate of return the more you stack on? -PDT follows the same rule...
Quote:

Quote:
Let's imagine that you're sitting at 50% evasion rate *it's not happening...*
You're not sitting @40%+ -dmg% either you dumb @#%^!
Without sacrificing your weapon, it's simple to put together a -31% PDT set. If you are lucky enough to acquire a Defending Ring, you can achieve -41%. If you need to sacrifice your weapon, you have 2 options: Iron Ram Lance *decent for a defensive weapon* adds -10%. Earth/Terra's staves *obviously only if you absolutely NEED to* add 20%. It's possible to reach the cap with easy-to-acquire gear when your damage output isn't priority. It's possible to reach the cap and still be able to deal a moderate amount of damage simultaneously when you add a single piece of hard to get gear. Outside of both of those situations, you can hit 31% easy with any weapon, and 41% easy with a small sacrifice.
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Also... lol @ thinking 5 eva is better than -2% PDT. See above for the reason why *as you approach the cap, newly added values account for a bigger bonus*.
I'm going to assume that's 5% since usu is +10eva. You're not taking into account the +counter/SB either, or the added killpower, but I'm going to ignore it since I don't need either to prove you're an idiot. -PDT does get "better" as you get more of it (just like eva/haste/etc do), but unlike haste/eva/etc you can't get the level of it needed to be really appreciable. 29% -> 31% -PDT is 71% dmg taken vs 69% dmg taken is a (71/69=) 1.0289x difference in dmg. 0% eva (ignoring cap) -> 5% eva is a (100/95=) 1.0526x difference in dmg. Just taking into account evasion usu is always better as long as you're getting the full value. If you're fighting something soo strong that you don't get full value, you're still better off as long as you're getting ~6eva's worth (once again, not including the +counter/SB even).
Hi, moron... Obviously I was talking about hachiryu feet vs askar feet. For that matter, I would pick hydra feet anyway, unless I was in the lucky few to get a defending ring, where even w/ iron ram lance I would be 1% above the cap.
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[quote]That's a total of 74 damage difference over 100 attacks in favor of 10 eva as opposed to -2% PDT. If 74 damage spread across 100 attacks is enough to best you as a SAM, then I fold...
"enough to best me"? You obviously don't understand how chance works. The goal of a defensive set is to reduce the avg damage you take as much as possible.
Usukane hands do it better.
End of story.
[/quote]
The goal of a defensive set is to make surviving more of a possibility. The effectiveness of each set will change depending on the situation you're in. If you're soloing, then by all means, do whatever is going to reduce the total amount of damage you take over the whole course of the fight. *arguably unless you're /DNC for the same reason as the next situation* If you're in a situation with a limited healer, however, you're best off with decreasing the amount of damage you'll take with each hit. If you get hit a few times less per hundred, but you get hit for twice as much or almost twice as much, then your healer may not be able to keep up. /DNC healers suffer from this because they're limited to ~200 HP per 6 seconds. If you're in a situation with strong healers *RDM, SCH, WHM, DNC*, then it's a toss up, honestly. The piece with the largest difference between evasion and -PDT is a very negligible difference. I doubt a WHM is going to complain that their SAM tank is using usukane over darksteel mittens and taking 5-10 more damage per hit. I doubt a WHM is going to complain that their SAM tank is using darksteel mittens over usukane and getting hit 5 more times out of every 100.

btw...
2nd Post of this Thread wrote:
Could be an "Oh sh*t" set.

This is what I've been referring to the whole time. Generally, the primary purpose of this type of set is when you unintentionally pull hate and don't intend to hang on to it too long *let's say 1-10 attacks*. In this situation, you don't have the gigantic sample size that you would love to use to support your example. In fact, let's use SAM's wonderful evasion skill in this situation.

The mob's accuracy is 320. It will deal 100 damage with its attack:
You pull hate and before the attack connects, you switch to 15% physical damage reduction. You hold hate for 3 attacks and take 255 damage.

You pull hate and before the attack connects, you switch to ADD 15% evasion to the floor. You hold hate for 3 attacks. Odds of getting hit by all three hits: 51.2%. Odds of evading a single attack: 45%. Odds of evading 2 attacks: 4%. Odds of evading all 3 attacks: .8%
Probability states that you will get hit 3 times for a total of 300 damage.

This is a moot point for anything above EXP mobs, where you are most likely never going to even break the eva floor.
#40 Feb 20 2010 at 1:08 AM Rating: Decent
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Jajuzza wrote:
Yea but who have -50 pdt?

Let's keep it on Nq gear, arhat head -4, arhat body -6 but osode isnt better? 14 more base def plus vit and agi. Ring combo another -7, feet/legs combo another -5, that's 22 assuming you use arhat over osode, where you get the other -28? even with the Hq you're not getting closer.

In my case, i have jelly/patronus, switching the remaining to eva/parry i get 22 eva, 10 parry skill, 5 eva skill in exchange of -15 pdt, so wich is better now?

For about the same price as you will spend on a hagun, you can HQ all the -PDT gear AH offers on my server. That's quite inexpensive honestly.
#41 Feb 20 2010 at 1:26 PM Rating: Default
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For sam's that only carry around tp/ws gear i say is quite expensive, and most of them are like that. I have tp/ws/penta/ranged/eva/parry and spending money on something wich i consider a downgrade or in best case similar is such a waste.
#42 Feb 20 2010 at 7:51 PM Rating: Decent
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Jajuzza wrote:
For sam's that only carry around tp/ws gear i say is quite expensive, and most of them are like that. I have tp/ws/penta/ranged/eva/parry and spending money on something wich i consider a downgrade or in best case similar is such a waste.


Whether you consider it a waste or not, numbers don't lie. Your 22 eva and 5 eva skill will not break the floor. Adding eva, yet failing to break the eva floor is a waste, as the eva you've added has no effect whatsoever.
#43 Feb 21 2010 at 12:54 AM Rating: Default
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The 22 eva and 5 skill was meant in 3 slots.
#44 Feb 25 2010 at 12:55 PM Rating: Decent
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Jajuzza wrote:
The 22 eva and 5 skill was meant in 3 slots.


At best, you're gaining 13.5% evasion. More realistically, you're gaining 13% evasion because skill above 200 contributes a whopping .9% which is rounded down before being added to the rest of your evasion. Even if you've broken the evasion floor before hand, -15% PDT is still greater than +13.5% evasion. I still challenge that you haven't broken the floor before that 22 eva and 5 skill.

*edit* regarding "isn't osode better" that depends on what you're prioritizing. Osode will add a bit of offense with a bit of defense *literal defense, not figurative*. The general consensus now is that AGI offers nothing defensively. SE broke the VIT formula YEARS ago. Ask any PLD. If you gear for VIT, you're wasting your time/money. Therefore, the benefits you're seeing from osode are STR+10, DEX+10, and def+13 in exchange for Enmity + 4 and -9% PDT. Defensively, arhat's +1 is leagues above osode. Offensively, arhat's +1 offers nothing while osode offers quite a bit.

Edited, Feb 25th 2010 1:02pm by Banggugyangu
#45 Feb 25 2010 at 8:54 PM Rating: Default
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But, you're missing one thing, o-sh*t gear is probably used for something like 2-3 seconds before utsu/eye is up again, so you get 1-2 hits.

Now i prefer the chance of a miss or 2 instead of getting hit for 20% less, saving 20-50hp on a hard hitting mob is not such a big deal.
#46 Mar 03 2010 at 10:48 AM Rating: Good
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I have a very similar set of equipment described by the OP, and most certainly use it as an "Oh ****/Running around faster/Enmity control" set

I don't recall why, but I never took evasion into consideration when I decided to build this set for my SAM after getting Amano.
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#47 Mar 04 2010 at 3:48 PM Rating: Decent
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Jajuzza wrote:
But, you're missing one thing, o-sh*t gear is probably used for something like 2-3 seconds before utsu/eye is up again, so you get 1-2 hits.

Now i prefer the chance of a miss or 2 instead of getting hit for 20% less, saving 20-50hp on a hard hitting mob is not such a big deal.


You're either ignorant of probability and the way it works, or ignoring nearly everything I've said in this whole thread...

Evasion rates are based on probabilities. If you have 70% evasion, that means that when that mob attacks you, there's a 30% chance that he'll actually hit. over time, this will average out to 30% of the time the mob attacks, he hits you. Note about probabilities: The smaller a sample size becomes, the more skewed it becomes toward the larger probable outcome. I.E.. if you have 100 marbles in a bag, each with a successive number, and you pull out a single marble above 13, probability states that you will do it. Each time you increase the sample size, the chance of pulling out a marble above #13 remains the same, but the chance of having a result which is different increases.

Like I said... At best, you're weighing 13.5% evasion vs -15% PDT. This means that you will have at best 18.5% evasion rate with those pieces of gear. This means that you have an 81.5% chance of being hit. In the 2-3 attack sample size, probability states you won't evade. In fact, it would take a sample size of 6 attacks or more for probability to state that you SHOULD evade at least one. But... like I also said... You're not gaining 13.5% evasion from those pieces of gear. A more reasonable estimate is somewhere around 5-6% evasion. I would much rather take my chances with floored evasion rates and take 15% less damage, than to have a very mediocre evasion increase and take the full damage.
#48 Mar 04 2010 at 4:48 PM Rating: Decent
Banggugyangu wrote:
Jajuzza wrote:
But, you're missing one thing, o-sh*t gear is probably used for something like 2-3 seconds before utsu/eye is up again, so you get 1-2 hits.

Now i prefer the chance of a miss or 2 instead of getting hit for 20% less, saving 20-50hp on a hard hitting mob is not such a big deal.


You're either ignorant of probability and the way it works, or ignoring nearly everything I've said in this whole thread...

Evasion rates are based on probabilities. If you have 70% evasion, that means that when that mob attacks you, there's a 30% chance that he'll actually hit. over time, this will average out to 30% of the time the mob attacks, he hits you. Note about probabilities: The smaller a sample size becomes, the more skewed it becomes toward the larger probable outcome. I.E.. if you have 100 marbles in a bag, each with a successive number, and you pull out a single marble above 13, probability states that you will do it. Each time you increase the sample size, the chance of pulling out a marble above #13 remains the same, but the chance of having a result which is different increases.

Like I said... At best, you're weighing 13.5% evasion vs -15% PDT. This means that you will have at best 18.5% evasion rate with those pieces of gear. This means that you have an 81.5% chance of being hit. In the 2-3 attack sample size, probability states you won't evade. In fact, it would take a sample size of 6 attacks or more for probability to state that you SHOULD evade at least one.
No, go learn how probability actually works or STFU.
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#49 Mar 04 2010 at 5:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
In fact, it would take a sample size of 6 attacks or more for probability to state that you SHOULD evade at least one.


Ouch epic fail. Every evade attempt is independent. The game doesn't care whether you evaded the last 10 attacks in a row, the 11th attempt still has the same probability to evade.

Both evasion and -PDT have their place. Basically you have two variables to consider: mob hit rate and damage per hit. The total damage you take is the product of these numbers. You modulate hit rate with your evasion and you modulate damage per hit with -PDT. Your ultimate goal is to minimize the product of these numbers. Do this and the probability works in your favor. Who cares about sample size? Are you only going to take 1 or 2 hits total over your whole FFXI playing career?
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#50 Mar 04 2010 at 7:51 PM Rating: Decent
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JaxReborn wrote:
Ouch epic fail. Every evade attempt is independent. The game doesn't care whether you evaded the last 10 attacks in a row, the 11th attempt still has the same probability to evade.


This is precisely my whole point. Because each attempt is independent of the last, it's extremely unreliable at low values.

Shinta... would you care to explain how probability works in your world? Because here in the real world, if something has a probability of 20%, the larger the sample size, the closer the actual averaged results will move toward 20%.

*edit* Jax. When you're referring to an "Oh Sh*t* set of gear, you're usually referring to a set that comes into play for 1-5 attacks per mob at the most. Low sample sizes per mob will greatly skew the results of a low probability of success toward failure. No one expects to take only 1-2 hits per their whole career, but melee jobs generally expect to take as few hits as possible per the mob they're currently fighting.

Edited, Mar 4th 2010 7:54pm by Banggugyangu
#51 Mar 04 2010 at 8:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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798 posts
Quote:
This means that you have an 81.5% chance of being hit. In the 2-3 attack sample size, probability states you won't evade. In fact, it would take a sample size of 6 attacks or more for probability to state that you SHOULD evade at least one.


Just to show you that you should go back and check your stats. You define the probability of getting hit as 81.5%, and claim it takes 6 attacks to expect an evade. Actually, you should look at it like this: What is the probability of getting hit 6 times in a row with no evasion? 0.815^6 = 0.29. Only 29%. In fact, your odds of getting hit 4 times in a row are only 0.815^4 = 44%. In other words, more often than not you will get an evade within 4 hits if you have an 18.5% evade rate.

Quote:
*edit* Jax. When you're referring to an "Oh Sh*t* set of gear, you're usually referring to a set that comes into play for 1-5 attacks per mob at the most. Low sample sizes per mob will greatly skew the results of a low probability of success toward failure. No one expects to take only 1-2 hits per their whole career, but melee jobs generally expect to take as few hits as possible per the mob they're currently fighting.


The bolded statement makes absolutely no sense. Results don't get skewed either way. OK, say I have a 30% evasion rate, I could take 1000 5-hit samples. Some of these samples I will evade 1 time or less (20% rate or less), some of these samples I will evade 2 times or more (40% rate or more). Average them all out and it will come to 30%. You should err above your average just as often as you err below.
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