Okay, aggregate statistics:
Box step: (62.67% Land rate +/- 1.32%)
used - 5192 times
Landed - 3254 times
Hit rate: (58.60% Hit rate +/- 0.73%)
Hits - 10138
Misses - 7162
Crits - 1353 (13.35% +/- 0.66%)
Extra attacks - 2652 (18.10% +/- 0.62%)
I realize that it would be better for me to have used a higher or lower Hit rate in terms of statistical power, but I was hoping to turn this into a test of "Enhances Step Accuracy" potency (3 different items) so I was saving my statistical power-ups for there. I'd always assumed there was an innate hit rate penalty on steps though, so I'm not sure how much I actually care about the potency of these items anymore. I might test Feather Step's crit rate boost first/at the same time.
I will get an Acerbic Sash and make myself a Lady Bell for my next tests, I think, as it should speed up data collection dramatically.
Edit: Oh yes, all of these tests were done on the same Hpmede (>315 DEF, so I assumed highest level).
Edit2: Less variance in Saber Dance use times this time. The unsmoothed version looks pretty striking <_<
What worries me more than anything else is that the spike decays over about 10 seconds. The highest point in the spike are oddities (low count, 1 and 5 for the first two points), but the rest are pretty high sample size.
So theories for how Saber Dance might work:
1) DA rate decays in 1 minute windows. - Not supported by the data
2) DA rate decays a lot faster than that (~10 seconds) - Somewhat supported by the most recent data.
3) DA rate decays with every swing, regardless of whether DA procs - Doesn't appear to, but maybe confounded by overlapping attack rounds
4) DA rate decays whenever a DA procs - Haven't even written the code for this yet.
Edit3, question for Kinematics:
Minor issue, but KParser determines groupings of attacks for the "Extra attacks" analysis and provides the average attack time for each group, correct? It seems much more likely to me that (if it were using a DA rate decaying with time) the DA rate would be determined slightly previous to the first attack of each round. Using the average round pushes back the timestamp and makes weird things like the 2 point in the unsmoothed graph above. Is there a way to do this without writing a grouping algorithm myself?
Edit4: I prefer this version
I aligned it to Saber Dance onset, but it's still relative to time. It is difficult for me to tell the difference between a fast decaying mechanism and one of the other options above, because they all come out looking about the same due to my relatively constant attack speed. When I make a Lady Bell and run the test I should know for sure.
Edit5: Summing everything after "50" where it looks like the crit rate has gone to baseline gives a crit rate of 16.75%. An odd number to be sure. Close to 1/6, but otherwise unremarkable! Edited, May 5th 2011 10:45am by Byrthnoth