I just have a feeling the damage difference is too close to try and calculate mathematically.
You have a great hypothesis going here. Test it. Go parse. Save all your logs from meriting, HNMs, Salvage, Dynamis, do controlled tests in all those fields and really narrow down where each dagger shines.
This is the opposite of a controlled test actually. The reasons for doing a controlled test is to find and quantity hidden stats or how hidden stats affect our output. For instance, when the new pDIF caps were found, they were controlled tests because we knew we were hitting fSTR cap, we knew we were also hitting ATK cap, since we were going against TW. To find WSC, we do the same with WS, but use crits to ensure the variations we have are less.
However, what you're suggesting here is to place it in a bunch of fields with unknown variables, that can change every monster based on the actions of other players, and use that as data defining which is better. That won't help matters, and it really isn't necessary. Play style WILL change the results, but we can predict how it will change based on the numbers. Numbers aren't theories. These are the formulas the game are build on, so they are true, so long as the same exact methods are used in game. That is, of course, impossible.
Things that are obvious variables In favor of X's:
Over tp, Blau/Sk does more damage in tp produced. Going over 100% before WSing lowers that.
Feather tickle, stun, sleep, time between pulls, and other things that delay WS going off, but lower timers between SA/TA.
Outside buffs: lower ATK scores and higher crit rates(COR) support X's.
As mentioned, battles where you aren't meleeing much, gain tp, run in WS, run out.
Variables that negatively impact X's:
Merit party situations in general favor Blau/Sk more(atleast the way I and the people I seem to find play)
Examples: My most recent merit party, with ls members and old friends, I had 72 attempted SA but only 40 successful. TA also showed 70 attempted and 52 successful. This is because of moving people, moving enemies, and how party members often surround the enemy instead of being on one side. I've had parties where TA didn't have much problems, but SA did, because I had majority hate as well.
ATK buffs and strong debuffs will lower the increase you get from crits, lowering the additional bonuses X's provides.
Low crit rates: My crit rate with 4 crit merited is ~7.5% once SA/TA is removed.
I'm not sure if this was calced above at that rate, but your crit rate varies on enemies, so while some it could be stronger, some it could be worse.
In the end, with the playstyle that most agree to bring out the most damage(solo ws, SA and TA, unless they happen to line up) Blau/SK produces enough tp to surpass X's.
Mistress Melphina wrote:
If you can't create 2055 ACTUAL damage with over 12-13 weaponskills your thief sucks monkey balls >.>. (and I know your thief can put up good numbers deadgye)
My last party I averaged ~680 damage per solo WS using this setup
, a BRD using 1 minuet, and Crab Sushi. No Dia was cast on enemies. I made sure to use the THF section of kparser to check only solo WS, and removed those that were too high and had to be a misparsed SA or TAWS(I only used 1 TAWS that party anyway). So 10-13 WS(lowering the lower amount by alot just to give X's that extra advantage for overtp, it won't really lower it that much) should be ~7000-9000 damage. It really isn't close enough, especially since I know I will miss a great number of SA and TA, more than I'll over tp or get feather tickled, unless I get a perfect party where everyone always sits to one side and I can line up perfectly even when blinking gear(I've missed several TA just because it took to long for my char to reappear and I couldn't see where I was).
I don't really agree with the people who say the math isn't clear enough to make a judgment. It's the same deal with people who oppose Hagun. If the difference is a clear difference like in this and Hagun's case, but your results are drastically different, it's probably because you're doing it wrong(for instance, hagun pulls further away when you WS every 100 tp, and use a 6-hit, as well as using med on the dot and having it merited. If you don't use it that way, ofcourse Onimaru can pull ahead).
Finally, as Mel pointed out, there's the difficulty in getting a weapon that will generally be outperformed in merits, may be better in other places. Unless you enjoy it, don't bother killing yourself over getting it. If you have it, it isn't a crap dagger. However, you may want to reevaluate where you use it. You can be stubborn and keep using it because of the work if you like. It won't hurt you. However, don't try to justify and say you do better damage with it when you don't.