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Thoughts on CraftingFollow

#1 Apr 03 2012 at 10:00 PM Rating: Good
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I was wondering and would love input from everyone in all the different crafts on what they think
would a general limit on synths after reaching a new level where doing a synth to try and skill up.
How many synths in your opinion would it take to convince you that you are 99.9% sure that you
are at cap and wasting time continue with the same synth?

Edit: I'm thinking between 20-25..... to low/high ?

Edited, Apr 4th 2012 12:07am by SillyHawk
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#2 Apr 04 2012 at 2:58 AM Rating: Good
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SillyHawk wrote:
I was wondering and would love input from everyone in all the different crafts on what they think
would a general limit on synths after reaching a new level where doing a synth to try and skill up.
How many synths in your opinion would it take to convince you that you are 99.9% sure that you
are at cap and wasting time continue with the same synth?

Edit: I'm thinking between 20-25..... to low/high ?

If we're talking about 100-110 level synths, I'd say 35-40. It wasn't overly uncommon to need around 2 stacks of synths to get just one skill up in the 98-100 range and keeping up with the trend of requiring more synths for same skill ups as your level goes up, 2.5-3 stacks wouldn't be unreasonable estimate.
#3 Apr 04 2012 at 5:16 AM Rating: Good
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Sharain wrote:
If we're talking about 100-110 level synths, I'd say 35-40. It wasn't overly uncommon to need around 2 stacks of synths to get just one skill up in the 98-100 range and keeping up with the trend of requiring more synths for same skill ups as your level goes up, 2.5-3 stacks wouldn't be unreasonable estimate.


Thanks for another input which is a little bit larger than what I was thinking. Do you feel having the Artisan Advantage Kupo Power might lower your original estimate? I just hit 100 in cooking last night and gonna push forward after I save up my Guild Points to break the limit. Its gonna be hellish going from 100-110 as it is with running around harvesting mats just to skill up.
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#4 Apr 04 2012 at 8:41 AM Rating: Excellent
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SillyHawk wrote:
How many synths in your opinion would it take to convince you that you are 99.9% sure that you
are at cap and wasting time continue with the same synth?

First, if it's a main-craft synth, and you're not sure the wiki is right (or if it doesn't have the level yet), the first thing you should do is check the recipes at the guild NPC that gives you a list. If you are able to see the recipe in the list, then you are at or above the cap for that item. It's also worth mentioning that you can check the cap by attempting the synth on a char with lower skill (15 levels under cap can attempt, 16 cannot).

For the handful of recipes that do not appear in the list, and for sub-craft recipes, this is purely a mathematical question with one unknown: chance to skill up on a given synth. If you estimate the chance to skill up at around 25%, then the probability of doing one synth without a skillup (if you are indeed under the cap) is 75%. The chance of doing two without a skillup is 56.25%. Three: 42.19%. Etc. Keep calculating, and you'll find that 24 synths without a skillup is just a hair more than a 0.1% chance, meaning you are just less than 99.9% sure. Doing a 25th synth actually puts you past the threshold.

If you lower your estimate of chance to skill up, to say... 10%, then 25 synths only makes you 92.8% sure. You need 66 synths to be more than 99.9% sure.

Artisan's advantage doesn't figure into it.

Edited, Apr 4th 2012 10:43am by VxSote
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#5 Apr 04 2012 at 11:53 AM Rating: Good
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SillyHawk wrote:
Sharain wrote:
If we're talking about 100-110 level synths, I'd say 35-40. It wasn't overly uncommon to need around 2 stacks of synths to get just one skill up in the 98-100 range and keeping up with the trend of requiring more synths for same skill ups as your level goes up, 2.5-3 stacks wouldn't be unreasonable estimate.

Thanks for another input which is a little bit larger than what I was thinking. Do you feel having the Artisan Advantage Kupo Power might lower your original estimate? I just hit 100 in cooking last night and gonna push forward after I save up my Guild Points to break the limit. Its gonna be hellish going from 100-110 as it is with running around harvesting mats just to skill up.

Couldn't say, sorry. ^_^;; I skilled up my crafts to 100 waaaaayyy before kupowers were added and I haven't gotten to breaking the cap yet.
#6 Apr 05 2012 at 10:36 AM Rating: Good
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Speaking from my experience thus far in 100+ cooking, it would have to be at least 30 synths before I'd give up. I've been farming and making Date Tea, and I'm averaging about .1 per stack of ingredients. I'm still only 100.4 so the sample size is too small to say anything conclusively, but that's what I'm basing my estimates on.
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#7 Apr 05 2012 at 12:36 PM Rating: Good
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Prim wrote:
Speaking from my experience thus far in 100+ cooking, it would have to be at least 30 synths before I'd give up. I've been farming and making Date Tea, and I'm averaging about .1 per stack of ingredients. I'm still only 100.4 so the sample size is too small to say anything conclusively, but that's what I'm basing my estimates on.


Thanks for your input Prim. I'm gonna be taking a lot of notes and keeping the test results once I break the cap tomorrow and on my way up to 110. I can only imagine what it's gonna be like if SE decided to raise the limit even higher as they mentioned a while back.


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