Questions about synthing a cursed togi.Follow

The synthesis support item in question is the Carpenter's Ring. This provides a 1% decrease in failure rate, but removes the possibility of a HQ synth. Your chance of getting a Cursed Togi -1 is only 1-2%, but using the ring will make it 0%.

As far as whether it's economical, I'm pulling Cerberus info off of FFXIAH. On your server, a Cursed Togi is selling for about 1 mil (however, was just about 700k a month ago, so watch for price movement). Divine Logs sell for about 400k. The rest of the materials are not an issue, about 10-15k.

I'd go through all the math here, but it's long-winded. Basically, over the long run, with breaks from lumber and togi synths, the expected value of a Togi would be about 875k. Thus, it would currently make some sense to go this route. However, you're not doing this 100 times. You're doing it once. You have 3 synths to attempt this way, each time risking a 4% chance of loss. On the first two you risk 400k, on the last one you risk the whole thing. That's a 12% chance of something ruining your plans.

Long story short you have two options:
1. Take the risk. If it works you save 180k. There's an 8% risk you'll lose 400k from a log break, and an additional 4% risk you'll fail the Togi and lose it all.
2. Play it safe and pay the 1 mil, or wait for the Cursed Togi prices to drop some more. The prices on those are kind of volatile, and will have spikes and valleys depending on supply/demand.

Personally, it doesn't take me long to make 180k profit in other places. For a one-time synth, I'd rather pay the extra amount and be done with it.

Edited, Mar 9th 2009 3:31pm by Doomfist

Worth noteing that you also make Tier 1 on the Lumber Synth.
I have made 12 Togis, HQd 0, Failed 1 (Lost 1 Lumber + Some of the junk materials)
Making the Lumber I have HQ'd three times (2 HQ1, 1 HQ2) and lost 2 logs.

Unless you're hoping for a HQ, Buying it off the AH for ~900k (Assuming Doom's numbers are correct) is a safer bet.

Since the OP said key item, I'm pretty sure he's referring to Moghancement: Wind, and not to Carpenter's Ring. Moghancement: Wind gives the following effect: "Reduces the chances of losing materials when synthesis attempts utilizing a wind crystal have failed."

I've never seen any attempts at even baselining the rate at which materials are lost when synths are failed, so it's very unlikely anyone can say what impact the Moghancement will have.