Subscription numbers released..Follow

Apparently, down 1.3 million in 3 months and Blizz is expecting to lose more.

The link is a Yahoo news story, by the way.

Everquest, Everquest 2 (SpoilerBy a few weeks, point still valid), Final Fantasy XI, Eve. Really, what WoW has done is got so big that it made it next to impossible for new IPs to stay in the game, and while taking numbers from older games didn't really knock them out either.

But then it doesn't sound aaaaaaaaaaaawesome.

Just nitpickin'.

Of the successful MMOs, the only one I would wager is still growing is EVE.

Part of that is because EVE has consistently been a completely unique experience compared to the rest of the MMOs on the market. I don't think it's hard to understand why. First and foremost is the fact that it realistically doesn't have much competition. There are some games that have come out that are MORE hardcore than EVE (but that's a relatively small audience), and there are some on the horizon. But for now, nada.

TL;DR for spoiler: I doubt any big MMO in the future will follow the current trend of being less "sandboxy", I think the reason EVE has been consistently growing is because content never runs out (being a player-driven sandbox with player-controlled economy), is accessible from the get-go, and is constantly updated so it never feels like a game that has aged.

Spoiler
But beyond that, CCP has managed to keep the game extremely well updated. Graphically, they've been revamping everything nonstop. Compared to WoW, where the old races still look like they did in 2004, where the environments didn't upgrade until 2 years ago (and BC ones still look like 2006, which is... not awesome). I play the game off and on. And everytime I come back, the game looks better. There are no two-year intervals for graphics updates that are only limited to new areas.

It's also gotten even more responsive with time. The original coding of WoW is really showing its wear, as anyone who played a Mage in Cata can attest. EVE doesn't seem to have that problem. I have absolutely no clue why, but everything seems to work better whenever I access the game after a break.

It's also fulfilling for a player of any experience level. Just starting out? That's cool - you'll learn to fly frigates, which are still flown by veteran players, you'll mine ore from the safest areas, which is less profitable but still 100% in demand, etc. Literally no area of the game is barred to you - the only factor is how brazen you are. (I tend to play it safe, so I still only dwell in high-security space, for the most part. There are players in their second week flying around low- or null-security space).

Factor in a 100% player driven economy, constant creation of new types of content (like everything coming with Dust 514, like orbital fleet battles in conjunction with planet-side skirmishes and orbital bombardments), player-driven content like powerful corps taking over areas of space or aggressive market maneuvers, and a substantial skill curve, and there's a lot to experience.

When you play a game like WoW, that's just not possible. Easily 99.9% of the items you loot are completely meaningless, gold barely matters, you have to level through content that's really only there as filler for endgame, etc. Sandbox games don't have those limitations.

Whatever the next truly big fantasy MMO is, I'd be really surprised if it wasn't at least FAR more of a sandbox than anything currently on the market. The current trend has been in the opposite direction, and I just don't see it working. The opposite direction can be great fun (like TOR, or GW2), but it definitely has an expiration date.

I had high hopes for Elder Scrolls Online, but I don't think it's going to make it. That said, I'm deliberately avoiding all information about it until we're way closer to launch and I can, hopefully, try it for myself. I want to try and have no expectations.

Edited, May 10th 2013 4:16pm by idiggory

Honestly, I think part of WoW's problem is that it's no longer targeting a demographic known for being faithful. It's far more of a casual game now than ever before, and so it's going to face the same issue the Wii did. Big boom, rapid loss.

I say "issue," but honestly I think this is just a natural progression. If they had targeted hardcore gamers, they would have lost way more players (and brought in way fewer new ones), and the hardcore gamers weren't going to stay THAT much longer, because they're more likely to migrate once the wear and tear really starts showing.

EVE's metagame is interesting. There are people posting in threads on reddit who, if they are to be believed, have never played the game but love to read about it. The intrigue, machinations, double-crosses, the people joining corporations just to gain trust and then either start killing as many corporation members' ships as possible or steal as many corporate assets, or both. The giant alliances breaking up and going at each others' throat with member corporations suddenly flipping to the other side.

And all of this encouraged by the game's developers. Recently, a player posted on the official forum after losing a ship worth nearly 8 billion ISK (which would pay for 16 months of game time). He made the mistake of flying into the main trade hub (Jita) during the "Burn Jita" event. Basically, this is an event "hosted" by one of the big alliances (there's a lot of background to it), during which any freighter flying into or out of Jita gets attacked even though Jita is in High Security space and the game's space police (Concord) will respond and kill the attackers (I've read that CCP has stated that if a player escapes death when attacked by Concord, it is considered an exploit.)

Unfortunately for the poster, he was not aware of the event (he had to be hiding under a rock) and so he lost his ship. He claimed that he was rebuffed by CCP when he opened a ticket, this is from his post (with his quotation marks) and is what he claims he was told: “tough luck – games working fine”. What is surprising is that he opened a ticket at all. CCP encourages this type of behavior. Even outside of the "Burn Jita" event, suicide ganking is a risk in HighSec (one player suicide ganks a ship carrying especially valuable cargo, hopefully killing it before being killed by Concord, and an associate loots the kill).

CCP has said that "EVE isn't designed to just look like a cold, dark and harsh world; it's designed to be a cold, dark and harsh world." The risk is what heightens the fun.

I believe them since I too never played EVE and am often entertained by stories about it. The Burn Jita event you mentioned just sounds awesome. I read about it a few weeks ago when it was refered to in a comment on WOWInsider. Any game developer that actually supports this kind of event has my deepest respect.

It is interesting to note that most people who talk about the 1.3 Million Subs lost seem to forget the fact that Blizz said most of the lost subs were from China and that Chinese (and Asians in general) tend to Sub up, consume the content, and then desub until new content is released, rinse repeat.

But trying to get people on oboards to understand that.... *rolls eyes* Esp the people who say "oh, sure if you actually believe that"...

I think I recall other calculations including language about accounts having played within a certain period of time. As noted, we don't use a subscription model and can't really be said to sub or unsub. Shortly after these discussions started, I happened to see my old buddy from Guangdong on and asked him about things.

I'd call him a reasonable example of a fairly hardcore player here. He currently splits his gaming time between WoW, Diablo 3 and Starcraft 2. He likes MoP in terms of what it has brought to the game, but notes that non Asian themes are more exciting for his friends and him because they find those more exotic. He felt that it was probably accurate to say there are a lot of people who aren't playing right now because most of the usual group he games with hadn't been on for awhile; however, he was unconcerned about the idea this represented a subscription loss. As he said, we don't subscribe, so when he feels like playing he does and when he is busy he doesn't.

For my part, I'd guess that Q1 figures in China took a hit for a variety of reasons.

Long term, players here are seldom older than college age. As those unfortunate enough to read my various goal and summary posts know, I'm planning on getting married next year. If I were a Chinese guy, that would have a huge impact on my gaming. Adjusted for local conditions, I'm paid fairly well and Pink is amazingly reasonable. I don't have to worry as much about things like bride price or buying an apartment. The Chinese guys are under a lot more pressure for that and their free time is often eaten up chasing extra money, guanxi and even finding a suitable partner for marriage -- something that is way to complicated for this post. It all adds up to make older (as in late 20s) players rare here.

WoW is, itself, an old game. It isn't cool to play old games. That, as much as f2p competition, is going to have an impact on WoW here. Mianzi (face) is important to Chinese and being cool wins you points, not being cool loses points. Being cool isn't just playing what's hot at the moment though, the little emperors compete by buying flashy toys. One of them hit the news for murdering his wife and it came out that aside from driving a Lamborghini LP570 and playing the club scene, he also spent as much as 100,000 RMB per month playing video games. The latter is another problem with WoW's cool/face problem. You can't flash your wealth (or at least your family's) when all you can buy are a few vanity pets and mounts; however, that is definitely an element in many of the Chinese MMOs.

Those are longer term problems, but Q1 would also have included the winter break and Spring Festival. Players in NA/EU would expect to play more during a break, but for Chinese players that means they are at home. They'll be expected to split their time between various family obligations, outings with friends and classmates (part of a culture with guanxi means break is a time for you to get together with schoolmates that may well go back to primary school) and if you've read about the whole "tiger mom" thing it will come as no surprise that there will also be a good dose of cram courses. After Spring Festival, high school players in their fourth year are under the gun for national college entrance exams and while that may seem like a fairly limited segment, China's population is huge and everything adds up.

There you have it, another Wall O'Text by Rhode when he is short on coffee.

@azwing: I think they are aware of this and they implemented a few things to help adress that issue. The new pets in old raids, achievements and transmog being the prime examples here. Also their efforts to make every boss soloable by adjusting the mechanics. While this isn't a progression of character power for many players it is a kind of progression. I should know. I ran many old dungeons and raids endlessly for that one pet/mount/achievement/legendary that eluded me. I still do for the ones that I miss. As the years go by soloing old content, at least for me, has become the real endgame content and I mostly do current raids to get gear for better soloing old raids.

It doesn't completely solve this problem. But there's also the big mystery feature that comes with 5.3 or 5.4 (can't remember) that is somehow linked to old content from the hints they dropped. Some think it will be scaleable old raids.

Those things have added a reason for people to revisit old content, but it hasn't really made the content relevant. I'm not knocking pets, achievements, or transmog, though, don't get me wrong. But, pursuing pets, achievements, or whatever is part of the model that makes WoW work. Dangle something in front of the player that keeps them playing (and subbing). The thing is though, all of those aspects of the game are essentially vanity items. They change your appearance (transmog), or give you something to show off around town (pets, mounts, transmog), or flash your e-peen (acheivements). But, really they don't add depth to the game. They are a distraction/time-sink that keep people playing. Again, I'm not knocking them...they're fun, people can play how they want.

I really started thinking about this a lot when I realized most of my playing time was being devoted to pet battles. I'm an addictive, obsessive collector. It's fun and I enjoy the chase. But, what I realized is that pet battles have almost nothing to do with an MMORPG. They're a solo acitivity (with PvP possible) thrown into the world. They're a distraction, a carrot dangling in my face to keep me subbed. Fun, yes, but nevertheless, they're a distraction. I think the world (of Warcraft) would be more vibrant with more immersion (see Idiggory's excellent post [#49] in this thread Teacake's Housing Thread for example). Instead, we just get repetition of the same formula expansion to expansion, with some new shiney's here and there to add gloss. It's fun, but it does grow old.

/end opionated opinion :-)

ps. If I were smarter I'd probably be able to figure out how to link directly to idiggory's post.

Edited, May 14th 2013 1:47pm by azwing

Edited, May 14th 2013 1:48pm by azwing

I don't think keeping gear of past raids viable for current content is a solution to anything. First, it would be hard to make so many pieces for the same slot differ from each other while still being comparable in power. You can only have so much different stat allocation variations with a certain ilevel. And then procs and on-use effects come into play. But those aren't unlimited in their variability either.

The only route I can think of would be a Path of the Titan -esque approach. Where you can gain character power by completing certain tasks. But even then you'd knock these quests out in the related dungeons and raids and then it becomes obsolete once again. The problem is not solved only delayed.
And what would the rewards be? +50 mainstat? According to Blizzards current philosophy that would be boring. And many agree on that. New spells/abilities? I don't see how that could possibly work. Either they would be completely situational/cosmetic or they'd need to introduce a sh*tload of new things that actually do something while not replacing your already learned skillset. And all the new abilities would need to be fit into existing rotations. How many buttons more to press before you can not perform your rotation/priority system to a satisfying degree anymore?
Any reward that is not cosmetic but gives actual power brings its own problems with it. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see any solution that's superior to the system we have in place.

Edited for clarity. But I fear this post is still a mess.

Second edit to add: If they introduce a new system that rewards you for doing the old raids with more character power, can any of you imagine how the forums would explode because Blizzard is FORCING us to do old raids!!!!111eleven

Edited, May 14th 2013 6:09pm by TherealLogros

I don't know what you're on about. Pet PVP is srs bsns.


Edited to add: I am not such a fan of vertical progression either. I find the release of a new expansion very stressful, TBH. And yeah, okay, I find calling for a pizza very stressful, so there's a perspective issue there, but still. That looming feeling of OMG HURRY HURRY LEVEL GEAR UP GO GO GO or else you'll get left behind is awful. I'd much prefer to just chill and explore the new content at a leisurely pace. I suspect one reason I'm enjoying Pandaria is that I came back too late to ride the treadmill, so I'm just kind of hanging out. There's no pressure to spend my playtime doing things I don't want to do just so I can be raid-ready and maxed out in the right places. (That last bit sounds vaguely dirty.)

OTOH purely horizontal progression doesn't seem to work either. I adore Guild Wars 2. It's a beautifully done game, I love the graphics, the art style, the lore. The combat is KICKASS. But I am not playing GW2. Because there is not enough growth once you hit the level cap and not enough to do there (or there wasn't last time I checked). And here's the kicker - none of my characters are even at the level cap! But If you're building a character, you want to feel growth, development, immersion, all that good role-playing jazz. If you know there's a dead end looming, there's a sense of Why Bother that I have a hard time getting past.

I don't love "progression" in its current form, but right now it's the only viable synonym I've seen, from a mechanics perspective, for "growth."

Edited, May 14th 2013 7:31pm by teacake