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Rogues vs Hunters : A new imbalance?Follow

#1 Dec 09 2006 at 4:27 PM Rating: Decent
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It's no secret, pre 2.0 hunters pwned rogues. Skill meant almost nothing, as a very well geared and skilled rogue still only stood about a 10% chance of beating a far less skilled and geared hunter without cooldowns (hell, there is a video out showing an extremely unskilled 60 rogue being killed by a level 39 hunter, although it was probably staged). 2.0 came with the promise of correcting that imbalance, and it delivered.

However, I'm beginning to think that maybe 2.0 corrected the imbalance too much. My hunter friend and I dueled for the first time with our new specs yesterday. A little background: we're both equally geared/skilled and pre patch 2.0 he came on top usually 60% of the time, if I didn't use any cooldowns. If I blew blind, I stood about a 90% chance of winning. So, we were both curious to see how our new specs would work for us. It was my first time on since the patch, as I refused to download it before my exams were over (which I ended up downloading it anyway, as this next exam is simple and I'm ready for it). I knew mutilate was good, but I didn't know it was this good.

We dueled outside ironforge ten times, and I won (with little effort) all ten. We had come to a mutual agreement in the past to not allow the hunter to stand on a flared frost trap, as rogues stood no chance of winning if a hunter did that. However, without him standing on his trap he couldn't beat me mainly because he was dead before he could move (CS -> Mutilate -> KS -> Mutilate). So, we decided to do some more duels where he could stand on his trap and flare it. I'd run in and try to disarm it, but to no avail and I'd be popsicled. I'd usually expect to be dead after this, but lo and behold, if I ever managed to catch him I put him in another deadly stunlock that he couldn't escape. He still won three out of the seven times we dueled in this manner.

So, I'm elated to see that blizzard fixed the imbalance between hunters and rogues. But, I'm almost thinking they over corrected it. Rogues need a class to repress them and scare them, and now hunters definetly aren't that class. Shadow Priests and Warlocks can be killed easily in the same manner (Warlocks not so much if they have a succubus pet), so the only big foe that's actually hard for Rogues are warriors (who aren't all that hard anyway) and mages (who are a luck battle).

My only character is a rogue, and my main is a rogue. I'm not saying to "nerf rogues", I'm just saying that I am sad this once difficult class no longer offers a challenge to me unless they're in a highly unrealistic situation (i.e., standing on a flared trap, which will never happen in actual pvp).

To close...

I love mutilate!
#2 Dec 09 2006 at 4:41 PM Rating: Decent
What's kind of sickening is how much damage Hunters do after the patch, actually. Mutilate is just crazy for Rogues, but so is MM Hunters for... well, everything else. Arcane Shot slicing through armor is cute, I've gotta say.

While it's a rather terrible raid spec, see what happens if your friend specs the new BM. You won't be able to touch him.
#3 Dec 09 2006 at 8:24 PM Rating: Good
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Yea, the damage hunters can put out post 2.0 is amazing (the other word I was going to use is absurd). If you don't get the jump on them, you are probably dead. MM hunters now have an "I win" button against casters, as well as several other great talents which make them more formidable than they ever were in the past.
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#4 Dec 09 2006 at 8:47 PM Rating: Decent
Speaking about the I Win button, I'm not quite certain as to how it works. From the few days farmin AB it seems like people whom I just shot still manage to shoot me back, cast some heal and that kind of stuff. I'm also pretty sure that I've seen a paladin purge it on sever occasions, it's there, and the next instant it's gone. I suppose it's hard to figure out what happens and where in mass pvp, I'll need to go and do some testing with a few friendly casters outside orgrimmar, but so far it seems a bit fishy. Sometimes it works, and I can see it, sometimes it's as if it can be resisted like a typical spell.
#5 Dec 09 2006 at 8:49 PM Rating: Decent
Mutilate is terrible for raids and only viable with extremely good gear. When to put to good use it can be devestating, yes, but 2 mutilates won't take down a good-specced good-geared hunter IMO.
#6 Dec 09 2006 at 9:13 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Mutilate is terrible for raids and only viable with extremely good gear. When to put to good use it can be devestating, yes, but 2 mutilates won't take down a good-specced good-geared hunter IMO.


What're you talking about exactly?
#7 Dec 09 2006 at 9:49 PM Rating: Default
yall say that hunters and rogues (i am just talking about how yall talk about casters) could kill a caster with out even trying. Well i have a feeling that alot of you don't have a higher lvled warlock. Hunters, yea can be anoying. But with the felguard it made things easyer, i will explain a duel i had with a hunter earlyer today. I was in AB defending LM by my self, a 55 NE hunter came up and was trying to use aimed shot, but i send my felguard to chage and stuns him therefor stoping his move, then i cast a Death coil that does decent damage and heals for the lil damage his pet did, then i use howl of terror before he gained controle again and feared both him and his pet, so i unleash all my curses on him then start a Soul Fire and blast him for 1.2k damage then i just Soul drain and kil him with more then half health. So, that prove's that hunters don't kill casters so easy. But rogues are sometimes more random to kill like that. When ever i am pvp i will always have a Detect Invis on, and when one does start comeing at my back and going for a quick kill, i charge a felguard at it or summon a infernal around me, therefor stoping that instant kill thing they have against clothies. Then ill just fear it(unlike hunters not haveing to worry about a pet slowing my casts and eating my health) curse soul fire if i have a shard to spear and keep hitting them with shadow bolt and there dead. But like all warlocks/mages know the spells that try to stop them in there tracks before they get your back fail it pretty much game over. Some can save there selfs but thats luck, but if we can't detect them before that strike or they resist your attack thats it. So in this case a rogue is a clothies nightmare.




Don't corrct my grammer, keep it to your self.

Edited, Dec 10th 2006 12:55am by greenandmean
#8 Dec 09 2006 at 10:20 PM Rating: Decent
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3,011 posts
Quote:
Mutilate is terrible for raids and only viable with extremely good gear. When to put to good use it can be devestating, yes, but 2 mutilates won't take down a good-specced good-geared hunter IMO.


Hmm, maybe you need a math lesson sir.

Copied from http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/class.html?wclass=4;mid=1165620161204494541;num=15;page=1

Quote:
Mutilate is hands down better than Backstab, and I can (and shortly will) prove why. First of all, Mutilate generates 2-3 CPs, while Backstab generates 1-2, and Ambush 2-3. Next, Mutilate can crit separately, bringing its CP generation even higher with Seal Fate, since you have a higher chance per attack to get a crit (I'll work the math out on that later). Mutilate also gets twice the attack power bonus, since it's two separate hits. Finally, Mutilate uses both hands, meaning proc based enchants on your offhand will proc just as often as the main hand, making double crusader/lifestealing more potent (I'd go with 15 Agility on both personally).

Now, the math. We'll assume highest ranks on everything, level 60, and the normal talents. Backstab and Ambush will have Dagger Spec, Initiative and Imp. Ambush. All will have Seal Fate, Opportunity, Malice and Lethality. We'll assume a 25% crit rate before Dagger Spec, but after Malice. We'll assume 700 attack power as well.

Weapon Damage will be abbreviated D (D1 and D2 for Mutilate).
The attack power bonus is equal to 700 / 14 * 1.7, or 85. This will simply be substituted where it would be calculated.

Not Poisoned:
Mutilate Damage (normal) 1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85))
== 446 + 1.2D1 + 1.2D2, 2 CPs

Mutilate Damage (single critical) 1.2 * (2.3 * (101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85))
== 736 + 2.76D1 + 1.2D2, 3 CPs

Mutilate Damage (full critical) 2.3 * (1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1026 + 2.76D1 + 2.76D2, 3 CPs


Poisoned:
Mutilate Damage (normal) 1.2 * (1.5 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 669 + 1.8D1 + 1.8D2, 2 CPs

Mutilate Damage (single critical) 1.2 * (1.5 * (2.3 * (101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1104 + 4.14D1 + 1.8D2, 3 CPs

Mutilate Damage (full critical) 2.3 * (1.5 * (1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1540 + 4.14D1 + 4.14D2, 3 CPs (Holy sh*t!)




Backstab Damage (normal) 1.2 * (1.5 * D + 225 + 85)
== 372 + 1.8D, 1 CP

Backstab Damage (critical) 2.3 * (1.2 * (1.5 * D + 225 + 85))
== 855.6 + 4.14D, 2 CPs





Ambush Damage (normal) 1.2 * (2.5 * D + 290 + 85)
== 450 + 3.0D, 1.75 CPs

Ambush Damage (critical) 2.3 * ( 1.2 * (2.5 * D + 290 + 85))
== 1035 + 6.9D, 2.75 CPs



As you can already see, the sheer damage of Mutilate is completely mind boggling. I have personally done nearly 1200 damage on a single hit of mutilate, using the Barman Shanker.

Now, the only argument I can see from the Backstab/Ambush holdouts. Does the increased crit chance on Backstab and Mutilate make up for the decreased damage? Let's create a table of possible outcomes, and their probabilities, then calculate average damage from that. We'll assume a weapon with 100-100 damage in our calculations for simplicity's sake. We'll also ignore the possibility that the target is not poisoned with Mutilate (I'm sure Backstab will outperform it on poison immune mobs anyway).

For Backstab and Ambush, we have a very easy task. Backstab will have a 60% chance to crit (25% + 5% + 30%), and a 40% chance to not crit. Ambush is 25% + 5% + 45%, for 75% to crit, and 25% to not crit. Mutilate is not so simple. It has two hits, and three cases to consider; no crit, single crit and full crit.

For the chance of a single crit, we can evaluate it as the chance to not crit on both attacks, which is the product of the individual chances, which are 75%. This gives us a 56.25% chance to not crit, and thus a 43.75% chance to get aanother outcome. For a full crit, we do the opposite, and multiply the chances to crit together, for 6.25% chance. For the chance of a single crit, we add these together and subtract from 100%, for 37.5%


Now, the table construction and damage calculations. We will multiply our damage calculation by the chance for that outcome, then add all possible results together for the average damage.

Backstab
40% to not crit - 552 * .4: 221, 1 CP
60% to crit - 1270 * .6: 762, 2 CP
Average Damage - 983, 1.6 CPs

Ambush
25% to not crit - 750 * .25: 188, 1.75 CPs
75% to crit - 1725 * .75: 1294, 2.75 CPs
Average Damage - 1482, 2.5 CPs

Mutilate
56.25% to not crit - 1029 * .5625: 579, 2 CPs
37.5% to single crit - 1698 * .375: 637, 3 CPs
6.25% to full crit - 2368 * .0625: 148, 3 CPs
Average Damage - 1364, 2.43 CPs


And there we have it. The answer to all our questions. Yes, Mutilate beats the hell out of Backstab, doing 38.75% more damage (with a weapon of average damage 100), and generating 51.875% more CPs. Yes, Ambush beats Mutilate in damage and CP generation, but only slightly in damage, and even more slightly in CPs. This does not imply that a Backstab/Ambush build is better, since Ambush will get used only once per fight, and the ridiculous lead in damage from Mutilate over Backstab will make up the difference several times over, even from just the first Mutilate.

These calculations show, without any obscurity, guesswork or opinions, that Mutilate does substantially more damage than Backstab. If the talents make it to live the way they are now (more or less at least), I can say with virtually 100% certainty that a 41/3/17 build is going to be the single strongest raiding build. Mutilate, Imp. Backstab (for poison immune bosses), Imp. Ambush and Initiative are all you could ask for. Dagger spec would be nice, but at this point it's getting to be complete overkill.

Hopefully this will put all the arguments to rest about which is the better raiding build. Feel free to correct any errors in my math.

As a final point, you should note that as your attack power and weapon damage increase, your Mutilate damage will increase much faster than Ambush and Backstab, eventually making Mutilate superior even to Ambush in the damage department.

Edited, Dec 8th 2006 9:01pm by Nooblestick


Mutilate does on average for me 1.5k a crit. Considering the ridiculous amount of damage increase it and expose weakness give you, 41/0/10 is the best pvp and raiding dagger spec out there right now. Mutilate just basically rips everything to pieces.

Edited, Dec 10th 2006 6:25am by Shaolinz
#9 Dec 10 2006 at 1:01 AM Rating: Good
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7,466 posts
RPZip wrote:
What's kind of sickening is how much damage Hunters do after the patch, actually. Mutilate is just crazy for Rogues, but so is MM Hunters for... well, everything else. Arcane Shot slicing through armor is cute, I've gotta say.


Think of it this way... Before Arcane shot was broken, it is supposed to be ARCANE DAMAGE. When is MAGIC damage able to be mitigated by armor? (Not resist on armor but the actual rating) Even with the damage up they gave it, I remember when it used to be cut by armor and such... Also, it was sharing a cooldown with Aimed Shot for a LONG time.

Shadowstray wrote:
Speaking about the I Win button, I'm not quite certain as to how it works. From the few days farmin AB it seems like people whom I just shot still manage to shoot me back, cast some heal and that kind of stuff. I'm also pretty sure that I've seen a paladin purge it on sever occasions, it's there, and the next instant it's gone. I suppose it's hard to figure out what happens and where in mass pvp, I'll need to go and do some testing with a few friendly casters outside orgrimmar, but so far it seems a bit fishy. Sometimes it works, and I can see it, sometimes it's as if it can be resisted like a typical spell.


I actually did some duel testing with a few friends of mine and can tell you basically exactly how silencing shot works. First, you're right that it CAN be resisted... it is a silence effect like say counterspell (think imp) so it can be resisted. Certain things aren't effected by it... namely pally buble, druid shapeshift... not sure about Ice Block. It does prevent normal spells (like heals and such) from being cast. The best use is really as a ranged kick type thing. Interupt their spell and silence them for a few seconds. The real kicker is that you have to realize that 3 seconds is NOT long in PvP. It is only the cast time for one big heal, and with how quick things go... Using it to open vs a caster really isn't a good idea. An ideal order to use it would be something like

Aimed Shot

Arcane Shot

Silencing Shot when they case

Assuming you can get the opening shot that is. The aimed shot opens for nice damage, then so does arcane. If they start casting right away the arcane also serves to take down their timer a little, which you can then follow up quickly with silencing shot to fully interupt and prevent them from casting.

Now, even saying that, you aren't the first hunter i've heard say this... and there could be a chance that Silencing Shot is broken some. Personally it isn't a hit or miss thing for me, when I can pay attention to the debuffs on someone. However when you have a ton of people around you and it is hectic and debuffs getting placed all around it can be harder to keep track of, and may be what is happening to the hunters who I have heard say that. I'm normally pretty good about watching for my debuffs (stings before this patch, and still mainly now) to wear off so I can put them back on. Maybe i'm noticing it more then other hunters or something.
#10 Dec 10 2006 at 7:39 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Mutilate is hands down better than Backstab, and I can (and shortly will) prove why. First of all, Mutilate generates 2-3 CPs, while Backstab generates 1-2, and Ambush 2-3. Next, Mutilate can crit separately, bringing its CP generation even higher with Seal Fate, since you have a higher chance per attack to get a crit (I'll work the math out on that later). Mutilate also gets twice the attack power bonus, since it's two separate hits. Finally, Mutilate uses both hands, meaning proc based enchants on your offhand will proc just as often as the main hand, making double crusader/lifestealing more potent (I'd go with 15 Agility on both personally).

Now, the math. We'll assume highest ranks on everything, level 60, and the normal talents. Backstab and Ambush will have Dagger Spec, Initiative and Imp. Ambush. All will have Seal Fate, Opportunity, Malice and Lethality. We'll assume a 25% crit rate before Dagger Spec, but after Malice. We'll assume 700 attack power as well.

Weapon Damage will be abbreviated D (D1 and D2 for Mutilate).
The attack power bonus is equal to 700 / 14 * 1.7, or 85. This will simply be substituted where it would be calculated.


I don't like it. I have almost full epics, Dragonfang Blade and Gutgore Ripper, and the highest Mutilate I saw was 1200. I backstab more than that very often. It crits very rarely and is far too unreliable for me. It can go from 400-1200 easily, depending if none crit, the MH crits, the OH crits, or both crit... The CP generation is nice, but to me it seems like the hemo build for daggers. On the PTR when fighting hunters in full Marshal gear my mutilates barely made a dent in their health bar. Soloing someone took a long time. Normally I would just stunlock them until somebody else came to help. In the expansion I'm going 31/8/22, a spec with virtually zero weaknesses IMO.

I don't see how those numbers can be right when my mutilates were doing such horrible damage.

Edited, Dec 10th 2006 10:44am by Makaro
#11 Dec 10 2006 at 7:50 AM Rating: Decent
So it can be resisted. Thanks, that explains quite a bit. I take it only the debuff, not the damage itself is resistable though. Also there's probably the server delay time between when I shoot, when the arrow hits the target and applies the debuff and that might just give them time to finish a cast or do an instacast of their own.

Mostly abandoned Aimed Shots though. It takes time to cast, and unless I'm absolutely sure I won't get noticed, which is next to impossible because if the target is targetting nothing - it'll automatically target whoever is starting to cast anything at him. I try to use multi as an opened, followed by an auto and then probably silencing followed with arcane. After that there's the frost trap on the ground, pet and scatter.

I guess I'll need to figure out the resist rate and whether paladins can purge it, or anyone for the matter. I'm way too used to stuff that's 99.6% reliable, resists aren't fun :(
#12 Dec 10 2006 at 9:06 AM Rating: Decent
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3,011 posts
Quote:
I don't like it. I have almost full epics, Dragonfang Blade and Gutgore Ripper, and the highest Mutilate I saw was 1200. I backstab more than that very often. It crits very rarely and is far too unreliable for me. It can go from 400-1200 easily, depending if none crit, the MH crits, the OH crits, or both crit... The CP generation is nice, but to me it seems like the hemo build for daggers. On the PTR when fighting hunters in full Marshal gear my mutilates barely made a dent in their health bar. Soloing someone took a long time. Normally I would just stunlock them until somebody else came to help. In the expansion I'm going 31/8/22, a spec with virtually zero weaknesses IMO.

I don't see how those numbers can be right when my mutilates were doing such horrible damage.


Because mutilate is two seperate hits. Check your combat log and look, you did 1200 with one hand and 600 with another, resulting in approx 1800 damage.

#13 Dec 10 2006 at 9:56 AM Rating: Decent
No. I am talking about doing 800 with one hand and 400 with the other. Pretty sure that's what happened.

You don't have to take my word as a complete representation of Mutilate. I'm sure it's a great spec for some, I don't like it right now. Maybe I will later, I dunno. I'm sick right now and I get in these weird moods.
#14 Dec 10 2006 at 10:24 AM Rating: Decent
Vataro, Eater of Souls wrote:
Yea, the damage hunters can put out post 2.0 is amazing (the other word I was going to use is absurd). If you don't get the jump on them, you are probably dead. MM hunters now have an "I win" button against casters, as well as several other great talents which make them more formidable than they ever were in the past.

What happened to the cry of the wild "HUNTERS ARE NERFED!!" poster?
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