Hmm, maybe you need a math lesson sir.
Copied from http://wow.allakhazam.com/db/class.html?wclass=4;mid=1165620161204494541;num=15;page=1
Quote:
Mutilate is hands down better than Backstab, and I can (and shortly will) prove why. First of all, Mutilate generates 2-3 CPs, while Backstab generates 1-2, and Ambush 2-3. Next, Mutilate can crit separately, bringing its CP generation even higher with Seal Fate, since you have a higher chance per attack to get a crit (I'll work the math out on that later). Mutilate also gets twice the attack power bonus, since it's two separate hits. Finally, Mutilate uses both hands, meaning proc based enchants on your offhand will proc just as often as the main hand, making double crusader/lifestealing more potent (I'd go with 15 Agility on both personally).
Now, the math. We'll assume highest ranks on everything, level 60, and the normal talents. Backstab and Ambush will have Dagger Spec, Initiative and Imp. Ambush. All will have Seal Fate, Opportunity, Malice and Lethality. We'll assume a 25% crit rate before Dagger Spec, but after Malice. We'll assume 700 attack power as well.
Weapon Damage will be abbreviated D (D1 and D2 for Mutilate).
The attack power bonus is equal to 700 / 14 * 1.7, or 85. This will simply be substituted where it would be calculated.
Not Poisoned:
Mutilate Damage (normal) 1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85))
== 446 + 1.2D1 + 1.2D2, 2 CPs
Mutilate Damage (single critical) 1.2 * (2.3 * (101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85))
== 736 + 2.76D1 + 1.2D2, 3 CPs
Mutilate Damage (full critical) 2.3 * (1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1026 + 2.76D1 + 2.76D2, 3 CPs
Poisoned:
Mutilate Damage (normal) 1.2 * (1.5 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 669 + 1.8D1 + 1.8D2, 2 CPs
Mutilate Damage (single critical) 1.2 * (1.5 * (2.3 * (101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1104 + 4.14D1 + 1.8D2, 3 CPs
Mutilate Damage (full critical) 2.3 * (1.5 * (1.2 * ((101 + D1 + 85) + (101 + D2 + 85)))
== 1540 + 4.14D1 + 4.14D2, 3 CPs (Holy sh*t!)
Backstab Damage (normal) 1.2 * (1.5 * D + 225 + 85)
== 372 + 1.8D, 1 CP
Backstab Damage (critical) 2.3 * (1.2 * (1.5 * D + 225 + 85))
== 855.6 + 4.14D, 2 CPs
Ambush Damage (normal) 1.2 * (2.5 * D + 290 + 85)
== 450 + 3.0D, 1.75 CPs
Ambush Damage (critical) 2.3 * ( 1.2 * (2.5 * D + 290 + 85))
== 1035 + 6.9D, 2.75 CPs
As you can already see, the sheer damage of Mutilate is completely mind boggling. I have personally done nearly 1200 damage on a single hit of mutilate, using the Barman Shanker.
Now, the only argument I can see from the Backstab/Ambush holdouts. Does the increased crit chance on Backstab and Mutilate make up for the decreased damage? Let's create a table of possible outcomes, and their probabilities, then calculate average damage from that. We'll assume a weapon with 100-100 damage in our calculations for simplicity's sake. We'll also ignore the possibility that the target is not poisoned with Mutilate (I'm sure Backstab will outperform it on poison immune mobs anyway).
For Backstab and Ambush, we have a very easy task. Backstab will have a 60% chance to crit (25% + 5% + 30%), and a 40% chance to not crit. Ambush is 25% + 5% + 45%, for 75% to crit, and 25% to not crit. Mutilate is not so simple. It has two hits, and three cases to consider; no crit, single crit and full crit.
For the chance of a single crit, we can evaluate it as the chance to not crit on both attacks, which is the product of the individual chances, which are 75%. This gives us a 56.25% chance to not crit, and thus a 43.75% chance to get aanother outcome. For a full crit, we do the opposite, and multiply the chances to crit together, for 6.25% chance. For the chance of a single crit, we add these together and subtract from 100%, for 37.5%
Now, the table construction and damage calculations. We will multiply our damage calculation by the chance for that outcome, then add all possible results together for the average damage.
Backstab
40% to not crit - 552 * .4: 221, 1 CP
60% to crit - 1270 * .6: 762, 2 CP
Average Damage - 983, 1.6 CPs
Ambush
25% to not crit - 750 * .25: 188, 1.75 CPs
75% to crit - 1725 * .75: 1294, 2.75 CPs
Average Damage - 1482, 2.5 CPs
Mutilate
56.25% to not crit - 1029 * .5625: 579, 2 CPs
37.5% to single crit - 1698 * .375: 637, 3 CPs
6.25% to full crit - 2368 * .0625: 148, 3 CPs
Average Damage - 1364, 2.43 CPs
And there we have it. The answer to all our questions. Yes, Mutilate beats the hell out of Backstab, doing 38.75% more damage (with a weapon of average damage 100), and generating 51.875% more CPs. Yes, Ambush beats Mutilate in damage and CP generation, but only slightly in damage, and even more slightly in CPs. This does not imply that a Backstab/Ambush build is better, since Ambush will get used only once per fight, and the ridiculous lead in damage from Mutilate over Backstab will make up the difference several times over, even from just the first Mutilate.
These calculations show, without any obscurity, guesswork or opinions, that Mutilate does substantially more damage than Backstab. If the talents make it to live the way they are now (more or less at least), I can say with virtually 100% certainty that a 41/3/17 build is going to be the single strongest raiding build. Mutilate, Imp. Backstab (for poison immune bosses), Imp. Ambush and Initiative are all you could ask for. Dagger spec would be nice, but at this point it's getting to be complete overkill.
Hopefully this will put all the arguments to rest about which is the better raiding build. Feel free to correct any errors in my math.
As a final point, you should note that as your attack power and weapon damage increase, your Mutilate damage will increase much faster than Ambush and Backstab, eventually making Mutilate superior even to Ambush in the damage department.
Edited, Dec 8th 2006 9:01pm by Nooblestick
Mutilate does on average for me 1.5k a crit. Considering the ridiculous amount of damage increase it and expose weakness give you, 41/0/10 is the best pvp and raiding dagger spec out there right now. Mutilate just basically rips everything to pieces.