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4Gamer Interview with the Producers of FFXI, FFXIV, and DQXFollow

#27 Mar 11 2014 at 11:44 AM Rating: Excellent
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Catwho wrote:
I used the qualifier "active."

It's trivially easy to pull from a database your active versus non active subscription numbers. (I had to do such a query for work not that long ago.)

If they wanted to inflate the number, they'd go with copies of the game sold, because there are certainly people who bought the game, played for 30 days, and decided they didn't want to pay the monthly fee. Do they have a XIV account? Yes. Do they have an active XIV account? No.

I didn't log in myself last night. My new GTX 770 suddenly decided it didn't like my motherboard, and I had to update a bunch of the Intel firmware drivers. Smiley: glare

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 12:54pm by Catwho


I was the only lonely member of our FC that logged on last night, lol. But I beat titan Hm on the scholar and got my fifth relic, ran high and low level duty, picked up a level on fisher and dragoon, ran CT once, and beat my head against the Ifrit EX wall for an hour Smiley: banghead, so not too bad for four hours work Smiley: grin
#28 Mar 11 2014 at 12:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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I was the only lonely member of our FC that logged on last night, lol.


My FC is getting lonely at nights, too... but everyone is just kind of taking a break before 2.2 comes out. They're all still subscribing... only people who may not be subscribing (to my knowledge) are a few people who all had to get second jobs.
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#29 Mar 11 2014 at 2:36 PM Rating: Excellent
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Nashred wrote:
Catwho wrote:
At this point, 1.8 million would be the number of total paid subscriptions, with a small percentage of that still on free trial.



It does not say that it says 1.8 million players (accounts)..


Except it does.

Nashred wrote:
Thats why they use accounts and not active. That is why the person asked for daily numbers which like has been stated before is pretty much not accurate.


Yeah, they're totally lying by stating their metrics show 500K players logging in daily.

Smiley: rolleyes

If you bothered to read he even goes on to explicitly state he isn't counting people that aren't logging on every day (i.e. myself) and if he were to have included those people it would be even higher. In other words that 500K is the usual bare minimum they're seeing every day and not just CoilMonday. So no, despite what you may think, he's not over-inflating the numbers and if anything is purposely undershooting them.

Simply because 500K people are logging in bare minimum per day doesn't mean it's the *same* 500K people logging in every day. #X Can log in all week, #Y can log in only 4 days, #Z can only log in twice a week and it still may only be 500K per day but the total user population is higher.

Nashred wrote:
Catwho should remember this since she is the on argued it aint true... FFXI 2 million users... SE did it before...


Except, Square-Enix made absolutely no such claim. They stated that they had surpassed 2 million characters created. At no point in time did they ever state they were touting 2 million paid accounts.

No, it was players that didn't bother to read the statement and proclaimed it was accounts active.
#30 Mar 11 2014 at 2:43 PM Rating: Good
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Nashred, why are you hiding behind semantics to try to deface an argument that you really have no cause to make?

Do you work for the competition? Because the only other conclusion paints a very bad picture for your outlook as an individual, that you have to splice words in translation to cling on to a desperate argument that the game is in dramatic decline. It is a rather sad state of affairs when your desire to not be wrong overrides every other path of logic here. You won't even entertain the possibility that their numbers are accurate.

And worse, that sort of argument is moot. They are still well over the record for game of their nation's origin as far as subscriptions, units sold, and server activity for the genre.

Let me make this clear: Aside from the rocky launch, which Yoshida claims as a personal failure, there is no way Square Enix can call the game's reboot or its current course anything other than a landslide success.

We can sit and speculate over the number of people quitting all we like, but in the end they're the ones with the numbers. Any claims that they are in denial of something really does peg the same possibility more firmly upon yourself.

----------------------------


Now, that said, I still fully expect a decline in subscriptions. This is because most subscription models swell then decline to a much smaller, but stable, subscription base. However, there's no accurate point of reference her as to where that stability will be. FFXI's dip in subscriptions was small, and held stable throughout most of its lifespan, and still maintains itself as Square Enix's most profitable title.

FFXIV, in spite of its failures, is back in the black already. Now, this is largely due to the company as a whole swallowing its investment cost into the company as a whole, but then the game greatly assisted a dramatic turn around in projected profits for last year. With no direct investors to the project to appease, that puts SE in a standpoint to make continual profit. All ARR needs to do is make a profit on its current upkeep and development, which hasn't even tapped China yet, which is, again, the single largest digital consumer in the world.

So what we have here is the initial buy-in for the market was so large that it blew the producer's mind. The subscription number (take it for whatever you will) is climbing and the member of peak after players at a time is at a healthy level given the population distribution. This is just on the break-in to a two new ports of accessibility (Steam and PS4) and before we tap China (Note: approximately 5 of the peak 12 million WoW subscribers came from China alone).

These are the reasons why I can't agree with the nay-sayers opinion that this game is failing or is a failure. It's going to have to take an awful lot more than some angry people on the internet doubting and cross examining interview statements to convince me otherwise. There's both precedent and hard evidence in SE's support here. Not much more than personal testimony and speculation on the other end.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 5:11pm by Hyrist
#31 Mar 11 2014 at 3:05 PM Rating: Excellent
Question/speculation: Will China get its own data center, or will they roll those subs into Japan's data center?

I suspect the "Middle East" data center will be rolled into the NA/EU one in Montreal, but China is a big question mark.
#32 Mar 11 2014 at 3:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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Catwho wrote:
Question/speculation: Will China get its own data center, or will they roll those subs into Japan's data center?

I suspect the "Middle East" data center will be rolled into the NA/EU one in Montreal, but China is a big question mark.


China has laws that prevent it from joining the larger world community. It also forbids a lot of content like the 'undead' form being in the game, so essentially no only do they require their own data center, but their own version of the client as well.

This was part of the reason why FFXI never tapped China. But that was before China was recognized as a potential player-base too large to ignore.
#33 Mar 11 2014 at 3:24 PM Rating: Default
Viertel wrote:
Nashred wrote:
Catwho wrote:
At this point, 1.8 million would be the number of total paid subscriptions, with a small percentage of that still on free trial.



It does not say that it says 1.8 million players (accounts)..


Except it does.


I don't know if Nashred was not clear enough there. It does not say that the 1.8 million are the number of total paid subscriptions. As Nashred stated, it only says 1.8 million accounts (in general), active and inactive. A beta player who only logged in once is included as long as he had to make an account to log in once.

Please show us where is it stated that the 1.8 million number are related to paid subscriptions.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 9:26pm by Hyanmen
#34 Mar 11 2014 at 3:36 PM Rating: Excellent
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A beta player who only logged in once is included as long as he had to make an account to log in once.


I don't think it says this, either.
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#35 Mar 11 2014 at 3:49 PM Rating: Good
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Moot point, assuming that they're count inactive subscriptions is a cynic's response and we're dealing with a translated number.

If we're go go off precedent, once WoW could not make the claim of having 12 million subscribers, they dropped it off their advertising.
#36 Mar 11 2014 at 4:19 PM Rating: Default
Thayos wrote:
Quote:
A beta player who only logged in once is included as long as he had to make an account to log in once.


I don't think it says this, either.


Are you saying the above person has no FFXIV:ARR account? He most certainly does, even to this day.

Yoshi-P was quite clearly talking about the number of accounts. Not active accounts, nor box sales. Just accounts.

You may not think that corporations would prefer to use the numbers that put them in the best possible light at any given time. I think that's a given and that S-E is no exception. Hell, Yoshi-P was even harassed by the PR guy in the middle of sentence.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 10:20pm by Hyanmen
#37 Mar 11 2014 at 4:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yoshi-P was quite clearly talking about the number of accounts. Not active accounts, nor box sales. Just accounts.


That second part is purely speculation. Just like we can't accurately speculate that he means active accounts, we also can't speculate that he means inactive accounts.

If the game has 500k players who log in every day, then I could see the game having 1.8 million players who are subscribing but not logging in as often. This number could also include people who haven't logged in for two or three weeks, but they're still subscribing because their intent isn't to quit.

We can speculate all we want on what that 1.8 million number means, but we can't draw conclusions either way without more data.
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#38 Mar 11 2014 at 4:38 PM Rating: Good
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Hyanmen wrote:
Thayos wrote:
Quote:
A beta player who only logged in once is included as long as he had to make an account to log in once.


I don't think it says this, either.


Are you saying the above person has no FFXIV:ARR account? He most certainly does, even to this day.

Yoshi-P was quite clearly talking about the number of accounts. Not active accounts, nor box sales. Just accounts.

You may not think that corporations would prefer to use the numbers that put them in the best possible light at any given time. I think that's a given and that S-E is no exception. Hell, Yoshi-P was even harassed by the PR guy in the middle of sentence.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 10:20pm by Hyanmen


You're again making presumptions towards your bias.

This is not the first time the negative bias on FFXIV has gone as far as to make false presumptions as to the FFXIV team.

I remember just recently Yoshida had to go as far as to cite specifically, that no, it is not the policy of the development team to make ninja patches or unannounced adjustments to the game. He personally viewed at as underhanded and stated 'you guys are too smart for that'. Even though the decryers swore up and down that they were going to make a habit of ninja patching stuff. (They even reverted the changes.)

So if you wish to continue along that vein of 'no trust' assumptions on them, feel free to do so. However without concrete evidence otherwise, it's just hearsay.
#39 Mar 11 2014 at 5:07 PM Rating: Decent
Thayos wrote:
Quote:
Yoshi-P was quite clearly talking about the number of accounts. Not active accounts, nor box sales. Just accounts.


That second part is purely speculation. Just like we can't accurately speculate that he means active accounts, we also can't speculate that he means inactive accounts.

If the game has 500k players who log in every day, then I could see the game having 1.8 million players who are subscribing but not logging in as often. This number could also include people who haven't logged in for two or three weeks, but they're still subscribing because their intent isn't to quit.

We can speculate all we want on what that 1.8 million number means, but we can't draw conclusions either way without more data.


Let me just conclude by saying that if that were true, the vagueness of Yoshi-P's words works against them, not in their favor.

Any corporation would be sure to not leave anything to speculation if it made them to be seen in a positive light. Likewise, any respectable corporation would be sure to leave to speculation anything that would make them be seen in a negative light.

Either Square-Enix does what any respectable corporation does or then they simply suck at being a corporation by leaving room to (justified) negative speculation when it is easily debunked.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 11:09pm by Hyanmen
#40 Mar 11 2014 at 5:23 PM Rating: Good
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Fail to see where the negative speculation is justified. I pay that as a huge disrespect to the producer whom has busted his **** off after being handed a nightmare financially, design wise, and PR wise, and then turning it around to a success that is currently over four times his expectations.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 7:23pm by Hyrist
#41 Mar 12 2014 at 2:49 AM Rating: Decent
Hyrist wrote:
Fail to see where the negative speculation is justified. I pay that as a huge disrespect to the producer whom has busted his **** off after being handed a nightmare financially, design wise, and PR wise, and then turning it around to a success that is currently over four times his expectations.


A) Corporations always do this

B) SE is a corporation

C) Yoshi-P is representing said corporation

I am not disrespectful just because I acknowledge the realities of the business world. Much better than outright denying their existence only because I like the guy and the game.
#42 Mar 12 2014 at 9:35 AM Rating: Good
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Good work SE, hope they can keep up the good numbers when competition starts popping up, they deserve it. I am sad they did not make a game I personally enjoy, but I am very happy to see them do so well.
#43 Mar 12 2014 at 9:40 AM Rating: Default
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Hyrist wrote:
Nashred, why are you hiding behind semantics to try to deface an argument that you really have no cause to make?

Do you work for the competition? Because the only other conclusion paints a very bad picture for your outlook as an individual, that you have to splice words in translation to cling on to a desperate argument that the game is in dramatic decline. It is a rather sad state of affairs when your desire to not be wrong overrides every other path of logic here. You won't even entertain the possibility that their numbers are accurate.

And worse, that sort of argument is moot. They are still well over the record for game of their nation's origin as far as subscriptions, units sold, and server activity for the genre.

Let me make this clear: Aside from the rocky launch, which Yoshida claims as a personal failure, there is no way Square Enix can call the game's reboot or its current course anything other than a landslide success.

We can sit and speculate over the number of people quitting all we like, but in the end they're the ones with the numbers. Any claims that they are in denial of something really does peg the same possibility more firmly upon yourself.

----------------------------


Now, that said, I still fully expect a decline in subscriptions. This is because most subscription models swell then decline to a much smaller, but stable, subscription base. However, there's no accurate point of reference her as to where that stability will be. FFXI's dip in subscriptions was small, and held stable throughout most of its lifespan, and still maintains itself as Square Enix's most profitable title.

FFXIV, in spite of its failures, is back in the black already. Now, this is largely due to the company as a whole swallowing its investment cost into the company as a whole, but then the game greatly assisted a dramatic turn around in projected profits for last year. With no direct investors to the project to appease, that puts SE in a standpoint to make continual profit. All ARR needs to do is make a profit on its current upkeep and development, which hasn't even tapped China yet, which is, again, the single largest digital consumer in the world.

So what we have here is the initial buy-in for the market was so large that it blew the producer's mind. The subscription number (take it for whatever you will) is climbing and the member of peak after players at a time is at a healthy level given the population distribution. This is just on the break-in to a two new ports of accessibility (Steam and PS4) and before we tap China (Note: approximately 5 of the peak 12 million WoW subscribers came from China alone).

These are the reasons why I can't agree with the nay-sayers opinion that this game is failing or is a failure. It's going to have to take an awful lot more than some angry people on the internet doubting and cross examining interview statements to convince me otherwise. There's both precedent and hard evidence in SE's support here. Not much more than personal testimony and speculation on the other end.

Edited, Mar 11th 2014 5:11pm by Hyrist

Where did I ever state the game was a failure... HMMMM ....What is it with people putting words in my mouth... I really think people read what they want too... they read one line and oooo... Just because I disagree one number they state is low is low and one is high.. somehow I think the game is a failure or is going to fail.. LOL Just too funny.

Yea I wok for another company even though I post news about this game all the time.. Why would I do that if I worked for a competitor...
Have you read my past post.. LOL

Edited, Mar 12th 2014 12:50pm by Nashred
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#44 Mar 12 2014 at 9:44 AM Rating: Default
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Viertel wrote:
Nashred wrote:
Catwho wrote:
At this point, 1.8 million would be the number of total paid subscriptions, with a small percentage of that still on free trial.



It does not say that it says 1.8 million players (accounts)..


Except it does.

Nashred wrote:
Thats why they use accounts and not active. That is why the person asked for daily numbers which like has been stated before is pretty much not accurate.


Yeah, they're totally lying by stating their metrics show 500K players logging in daily.

Smiley: rolleyes

If you bothered to read he even goes on to explicitly state he isn't counting people that aren't logging on every day (i.e. myself) and if he were to have included those people it would be even higher. In other words that 500K is the usual bare minimum they're seeing every day and not just CoilMonday. So no, despite what you may think, he's not over-inflating the numbers and if anything is purposely undershooting them.

Simply because 500K people are logging in bare minimum per day doesn't mean it's the *same* 500K people logging in every day. #X Can log in all week, #Y can log in only 4 days, #Z can only log in twice a week and it still may only be 500K per day but the total user population is higher.

Nashred wrote:
Catwho should remember this since she is the on argued it aint true... FFXI 2 million users... SE did it before...


Except, Square-Enix made absolutely no such claim. They stated that they had surpassed 2 million characters created. At no point in time did they ever state they were touting 2 million paid accounts.

No, it was players that didn't bother to read the statement and proclaimed it was accounts active.


You have no Idea what your quoting.. matter of fact your making my argument for me..

Except it does what?.. I put the exact quote in my reply.. matter of fact here it is again exactly:
Quote:
To start with me (FFXIV), we're currently sitting at just over 1.8 million players (accounts)


Now you find me a quote where is says active or paying since You said I am not telling the truth...


Quote:

To start with me (FFXIV), we're currently sitting at just over 1.8 million players (accounts)


No where does it say active.. Accounts could mean anything... He said it not me.. So either you people are not reading the article or my posts.

Also he said
Quote:
I'd say we have about 500,000 people world wide
so how am I lying.. He said it not me and that is a direct quote.. I am the one that said it has to be higher since everyone does not log in everyday..

matter of fact this is exactly what I said:
Quote:
My point is you really cant tell much from the numbers logging in in a 24 hr period or account numbers. A monthly number would be better or better yet paying accounts.


I am done with this argument lets move on..



]


Edited, Mar 12th 2014 12:15pm by Nashred
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#45 Mar 12 2014 at 10:10 AM Rating: Good
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Yeah..even when SE, Yoshi P specifically, stated as plain as day the actual logins is around (not even exactly) 500,000...why would they pull that number out of thin air..? I get people want to defend this game to the death (and ironically accused me of doing so with 1.2x) but he even states numbers can be misleading which is why they can't use "account" and "character" numbers but the actual login numbers because he even mentions DQX's which is damn near as much as XIV ARR's and it's a Japanese only release as of now.

Login numbers matter whether someone wants to agree or be in pure denial about it; They can see an average so there's no "speculation", it's an average or Yoshi P fails at gathering statistics as he prefaces it by stating people don't log in everyday, hence gathering a average which is around 500,000. The only reason people would ever find that as a slightly 'negative' matter is because it's not the MILLIONS UPON MILLIONS OF PEOPLE IN THIS OH SO SUCCESSFUL GAME.

It's more successful than 1,0 but let's be real, this is an age where newer MMOs USUALLY fail starting at the 6 month period, so they're pretty happy keeping what XI basically had for 4-5 years after its peak.
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#46 Mar 12 2014 at 10:16 AM Rating: Excellent
500K players who log in each day is a good thing! There are many more who play regularly on a less frequent basis. Also, we are at the end of a content cycle, so numbers now are a little low. And the ps4 version isn't even here yet!

It's good news, everyone should be thrilled about this.
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#47 Mar 12 2014 at 10:18 AM Rating: Good
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He clearly stated there are roughly 500k people that log in everyday not including people that don't log in everyday. That would mean the number is actually higher, i would say about 600-700k. And that's not a bad number, it's successful currently to them and noone can say otherwise.
#48 Mar 12 2014 at 10:23 AM Rating: Default
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Theonehio wrote:
Yeah..even when SE, Yoshi P specifically, stated as plain as day the actual logins is around (not even exactly) 500,000...why would they pull that number out of thin air..? I get people want to defend this game to the death (and ironically accused me of doing so with 1.2x) but he even states numbers can be misleading which is why they can't use "account" and "character" numbers but the actual login numbers because he even mentions DQX's which is damn near as much as XIV ARR's and it's a Japanese only release as of now.

Login numbers matter whether someone wants to agree or be in pure denial about it; They can see an average so there's no "speculation", it's an average or Yoshi P fails at gathering statistics as he prefaces it by stating people don't log in everyday, hence gathering a average which is around 500,000. The only reason people would ever find that as a slightly 'negative' matter is because it's not the MILLIONS UPON MILLIONS OF PEOPLE IN THIS OH SO SUCCESSFUL GAME.

It's more successful than 1,0 but let's be real, this is an age where newer MMOs USUALLY fail starting at the 6 month period, so they're pretty happy keeping what XI basically had for 4-5 years after its peak.


Whats funny for me is these couple of people who have no idea who I am and are calling me a hater of the game.. Really.. I play the game more than most people do and I probably play with close to 1/3 of the people that post on these forums pretty regularly.. I am in the ZAM FC.. I bought two PS4's just to play this game and I am a hater because I disagree with some numbers. Sounds about right.







Edited, Mar 12th 2014 1:03pm by Nashred

Edited, Mar 12th 2014 1:04pm by Nashred
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#49 Mar 12 2014 at 12:09 PM Rating: Default
Thayos wrote:
Doubt it... In a p2p game, you either have an account or you don't. A lot of people who don't log in often haven't quit the game, and are probably still subscribers... Hence the distinction between accounts and active players.


Notice how if you stop playing for a year and come back your account is still alive?

1.8 million accounts does not mean 1.8 million paying customers, to be this evasive with subscriber numbers the active player numbers must be pretty low.

They can be pretty liberal with the truth in interviews, they can't lie or pad numbers in financial reports which is why they gave no information at all last time.

You don't even really need to be told these numbers, you can look at how little traffic all the ffxiv forums get, how few people are around in the lower areas, how many people have quit from your FCs to see how many people are playing. This is not the playerbase of a 1.8 million subscriber game.

If a game that could barely handle 600k players had grown to 3 times as many with now 1.8 million you really think they would not of been forced to add more servers? You think some server fiddling would allow them to handle 3 times the load? Any game that goes from 600k subscribers to 1.8 million adds more servers, this is not something you can argue about.

Edited, Mar 12th 2014 2:18pm by preludes
#50 Mar 12 2014 at 12:16 PM Rating: Default
preludes wrote:
Thayos wrote:
Doubt it... In a p2p game, you either have an account or you don't. A lot of people who don't log in often haven't quit the game, and are probably still subscribers... Hence the distinction between accounts and active players.


Notice how if you stop playing for a year and come back your account is still alive?

1.8 million accounts does not mean 1.8 million paying customers, to be this evasive with subscriber numbers the active player numbers must be pretty low.

They can be pretty liberal with the truth in interviews, they can't lie or pad numbers in financial reports which is why they gave no information at all last time.


You wish.

500k+ subscribers playing the game every day is a cold hard fact. Nothing "low" about it.
#51 Mar 12 2014 at 12:21 PM Rating: Decent
Hyanmen wrote:
preludes wrote:
Thayos wrote:
Doubt it... In a p2p game, you either have an account or you don't. A lot of people who don't log in often haven't quit the game, and are probably still subscribers... Hence the distinction between accounts and active players.


Notice how if you stop playing for a year and come back your account is still alive?

1.8 million accounts does not mean 1.8 million paying customers, to be this evasive with subscriber numbers the active player numbers must be pretty low.

They can be pretty liberal with the truth in interviews, they can't lie or pad numbers in financial reports which is why they gave no information at all last time.


You wish.

500k+ subscribers playing the game every day is a cold hard fact. Nothing "low" about it.


I don't wish anything, I have common sense.

Tell me how servers that were struggling with 600k subscribers can handle 1.8 million? Unless harry potter runs the servers there is no way that would ever be possible.

Here is what he said "Well, the number for daily active user count can be misleading....". He could of easily stated subscriber numbers but didn't want to, I wonder why. Is that 500k number player numbers or is it logins, cause if it's logins you know what that means right? I can log off and on multiple times a day.

Player numbers are obviously very important and something he wants put out there yet he is very evasive about cold hard facts.

Edited, Mar 12th 2014 2:26pm by preludes
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