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I think ARR will succeed.

#1 Mar 14 2013 at 9:35 PM Rating: Decent
9,997 posts
Khornette wrote:
IKickYoDog wrote:
Wint wrote:
Well doing the math, if they have even 100,000 subs a month, that's 1.4 million they're pulling in monthly. Server costs can't be that high, this doesn't need to be a blockbuster like WoW to get them their money back.

The only way we will know for sure is when this game launches, I'm optimistic.

Yes, but after calculating the overall development costs leading up to this point, how long does it take them to break even on that? $1.4 million, minus staff wages and server upkeep, etc, then put what is left towards some ungodly number. They'll need years of solid growth / retention, not just floating.

EA declared SWTOR (reported to be $200m development cost estimated by EA themselves) need 500k subs to make a profit. 100k subs would be profitable for $40m development cost game. Can't say how much development cost for FFXIV would be.

Edited, Mar 14th 2013 11:12pm by Khornette

Not necessarily. Development costs for one company are not necessarily analogous or proportional to another company, especially considering operating and support costs. There's a point of diminishing returns, as you have to employ a fairly significant staff just to maintain an MMO. Accountants, technicians, community liaisons, etc... lots of people behind the scenes, not to mention some pretty well-paid management and administration if you want qualified people. You can spend more than a million dollars a year just on personnel expenses easily. Factor in taxes, and 100k subs for a triple-A MMO is a game born in the grave. Most MMOs go free to play once subscriptions trend towards 250k subscribers, at least if this occurs early in the game's life cycle.

Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
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